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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1982

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 47

Wilder than 47% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockWake Forest over Virginia Tech20% chance · won 13-10
  • Runner-upPacific over UNLV21% chance · won 29-27
  • Runner-upNavy over Duke22% chance · won 27-21

Upsets

Fri, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Cal State Fullerton@Long Beach State
37%
63%
3
7
✓
Long Beach State −5.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah
19%
80%
14
35
✓
UTAH −14.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Kansas State@#4Arizona State
10%
90%
7
30
✓
ASU −21.2
–
–
Final
TCU@#17Arkansas
21%
79%
0
35
✓
ARK −13.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
32%
68%
14
7
✗
NIU −7.9
–
–
Final
Temple@#18Boston College
28%
72%
7
17
✓
BC −9.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling Green
39%
61%
3
7
✓
BGSU −4.9
–
–
Final
#20BYU@UTEP
93%
7.0%
51
3
✓
BYU −24.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
45%
55%
7
26
✓
CAL −2.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
89%
11%
13
8
✓
CMU −20.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Clemson
14%
86%
6
24
✓
CLEM −18.0
–
–
Final
Florida State@#22Ohio StateUpset
33%
67%
34
17
✗
OSU −7.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
50%
50%
6
31
✗
FRES −0.1
–
–
Final
#8Georgia@#19Mississippi State
57%
43%
29
22
✓
UGA −2.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@Houston
35%
65%
21
21
✗
HOU −6.4
–
–
Final
#25Illinois@#14Minnesota
36%
64%
42
24
✗
MINN −5.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
12%
88%
7
45
✓
IOWA −19.9
–
–
Final
LSU@#12FloridaUpset
27%
73%
24
13
✗
FLA −10.4
–
–
Final
#23Maryland@Syracuse
73%
27%
26
3
✓
MD −10.3
–
–
Final
#7Miami (FL)@Louisville
88%
12%
28
6
✓
MIA −19.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
74%
26%
20
0
✓
M-OH −10.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@#21Michigan
19%
81%
10
24
✓
MICH −14.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Missouri
36%
64%
9
28
✓
MIZ −6.0
–
–
Final
Navy@DukeUpset
21%
78%
27
21
✗
DUKE −13.2
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Auburn
79%
21%
41
7
✓
NEB −13.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
68%
32%
49
37
✓
UNM −7.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#5North Carolina
4.8%
95%
0
41
✓
UNC −27.7
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
84%
16%
16
13
✓
NCSU −16.5
–
–
Final
#24Notre Dame@Michigan State
66%
34%
11
3
✓
ND −6.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
72%
28%
14
17
✗
TOL −9.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Iowa State
52%
48%
13
3
✓
OU −0.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@PacificUpset
79%
21%
27
29
✗
UNLV −13.2
–
–
Final
#16West Virginia@#2Pittsburgh
24%
76%
13
16
✓
PITT −11.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@#11USC
6.6%
93%
7
38
✓
USC −25.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
11%
89%
14
34
✓
USM −20.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
4.4%
96%
5
45
✓
STAN −28.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@Tennessee
32%
68%
3
10
✓
TENN −8.0
–
–
Final
#13Texas@Rice
93%
7.3%
34
7
✓
TEX −24.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas A&M
28%
72%
24
15
✗
TA&M −10.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Kansas
50%
50%
20
15
✓
TLSA −0.1
–
–
Final
#9UCLA@Colorado
89%
11%
34
6
✓
UCLA −20.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Vanderbilt
42%
58%
21
24
✓
VAN −3.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia TechUpset
20%
80%
13
10
✗
VT −14.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#15Washington
8.7%
91%
25
46
✓
WASH −22.6
–
–
Final
Wichita State@West Texas
60%
40%
24
21
✓
Wichita State −3.9
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
58%
42%
35
31
✓
WIS −3.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
26%
74%
28
10
✗
HAW −10.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Arkansas State at #6 Alabama Alabama −26.9 95%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Harvard at Army Army −8.6 70%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Southern Illinois at Louisiana Louisiana −11.8 76%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Illinois State at New Mexico State New Mexico State −7.3 67%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD William & Mary at Rutgers Rutgers −23.5 92%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD Cincinnati at South Carolina South Carolina −1.3 53%
Sat, Oct 2 · TBD North Texas at #10 SMU SMU −29.0 96%