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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1982

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 99

Wilder than 99% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Michigan over Western Michigan6.7% chance · won 3-3
  • Runner-upLouisiana Tech over Southern Miss9.4% chance · won 13-6
  • Runner-upWashington State over Washington12% chance · won 24-20

Upsets

Sat, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
#24Notre Dame@Air ForceUpset
74%
26%
17
30
✗
ND −10.6
–
–
Final
#14SMU@#16Arkansas
43%
57%
17
17
✗
ARK −2.5
–
–
Final
#18BYU@Utah
71%
29%
17
12
✓
BYU −9.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
60%
40%
20
25
✗
STAN −4.7
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#12Clemson
8.7%
91%
6
24
✓
CLEM −21.4
–
–
Final
#6North Carolina@DukeUpset
78%
22%
17
23
✗
UNC −12.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@TempleUpset
19%
80%
23
10
✗
TEM −13.3
–
–
Final
Florida@Tulane
75%
25%
21
7
✓
FLA −11.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
73%
27%
30
28
✓
FRES −10.0
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas Tech
45%
55%
24
7
✗
TTU −1.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
47%
53%
13
7
✗
PUR −0.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@Michigan State
49%
51%
24
18
✗
IOWA −0.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas State
19%
81%
10
33
✓
KSU −13.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Long Beach StateUpset
86%
14%
7
24
✗
BGSU −17.9
–
–
Final
#8Florida State@#22LSU
53%
47%
21
55
✗
FSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Memphis
45%
55%
38
19
✗
MEM −1.5
–
–
Final
#13Maryland@Virginia
93%
7.0%
45
14
✓
MD −24.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#21Miami (FL)
18%
82%
3
41
✓
MIA −14.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
31%
69%
10
27
✓
MSST −7.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
16%
84%
10
16
✓
MIZ −15.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@New Mexico
29%
71%
17
41
✓
UNM −8.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
58%
42%
13
19
✗
CMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
27%
73%
20
24
✓
OHIO −9.2
–
–
Final
#7Michigan@#25Ohio State
58%
42%
14
24
✗
MICH −3.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
48%
52%
13
49
✓
OKST −0.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@OregonUpset
79%
21%
7
13
✗
ARIZ −13.2
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
56%
44%
0
31
✗
Cal State Fullerton −2.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#4Pittsburgh
3.3%
97%
6
52
✓
PITT −29.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
35%
65%
10
38
✓
SDSU −5.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
18%
82%
26
49
✓
SJSU −14.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
14%
86%
7
28
✓
TENN −16.6
–
–
Final
#10Texas@Baylor
80%
20%
31
23
✓
TEX −13.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas A&M
37%
63%
14
34
✓
TA&M −4.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UTEPUpset
82%
18%
32
39
✗
WYO −15.3
–
–
Final
#5USC@#9UCLA
47%
53%
19
20
✓
UCLA −0.5
–
–
Final
#19Washington@Washington StateUpset
88%
12%
20
24
✗
WASH −19.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#20West Virginia
12%
88%
0
26
✓
WVU −18.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
6.7%
93%
3
3
✗
WMU −23.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
27%
73%
0
24
✓
WIS −9.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Nov 18 · TBD Miami (OH) at Cincinnati Miami (OH) −0.8 51%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Illinois State at Ball State Ball State −22.1 92%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Holy Cross at Boston College Boston College −28.8 96%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD McNeese at Louisiana Louisiana −10.0 74%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Louisiana Tech at #23 Southern Miss Southern Miss −20.6 91%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Montana at Oregon State Oregon State −16.9 86%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD West Texas at Southern Illinois Southern Illinois −6.2 66%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Tulsa at North Texas Tulsa −15.4 82%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD Chattanooga at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −20.7 91%
Sat, Nov 20 · TBD VMI at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −30.5 97%