The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 42 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

14 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockCal State Fullerton over Fresno State14% chance · won 39-25
  • Runner-upRichmond over Bowling Green16% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over BYU30% chance · won 25-21

Upsets

Fri, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Long Beach State
66%
34%
16
9
✓
NIU −6.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 32 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#1Alabama
15%
85%
3
26
✓
ALA −15.8
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno StateUpset
14%
86%
39
25
✗
FRES −16.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@#22Central Michigan
31%
69%
17
21
✓
CMU −7.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
28%
72%
9
21
✓
CSU −8.5
–
–
Final
#25East Carolina@Duke
63%
37%
35
10
✓
ECU −5.4
–
–
Final
#8Florida State@#16LSU
45%
55%
16
0
✗
LSU −1.2
–
–
Final
Georgia@Tennessee
36%
64%
16
15
✗
TENN −5.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
28%
72%
9
35
✓
ILL −8.6
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Drake
47%
53%
13
10
✗
Drake −0.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Kentucky
40%
60%
10
17
✓
UK −3.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana
30%
70%
12
14
✓
UL −7.5
–
–
Final
Villanova@#23Maryland
9.8%
90%
3
7
✓
MD −19.6
–
–
Final
McNeese@West Texas
55%
45%
20
17
✓
McNeese −2.4
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Louisville
46%
54%
24
10
✗
LOU −1.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
53%
47%
34
7
✓
MSST −1.6
–
–
Final
#5BYU@New MexicoUpset
70%
30%
21
25
✗
BYU −8.4
–
–
Final
Furman@#13North Carolina
5.0%
95%
13
35
✓
UNC −25.3
–
–
Final
William & Mary@#21NC State
5.4%
95%
0
42
✓
NCSU −24.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas-Arlington
46%
54%
31
14
✗
Texas-Arlington −1.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@#19Notre Dame
37%
63%
10
31
✓
ND −4.4
–
–
Final
Colgate@#14Penn State
3.5%
96%
10
54
✓
PSU −27.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@RichmondUpset
84%
16%
17
20
✗
BGSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@South Carolina
6.0%
94%
0
37
✓
SC −23.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
39%
61%
17
14
✗
TULN −4.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon
47%
53%
35
25
✗
ORE −0.8
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@Ole Miss
59%
41%
23
20
✓
TA&M −4.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@Texas Tech
19%
81%
7
35
✓
TTU −13.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
38%
62%
16
7
✗
WAKE −4.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@West Virginia
40%
60%
27
41
✓
WVU −3.4
–
–
Final
VMI@Western Carolina
28%
72%
14
16
✓
Western Carolina −8.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
22%
78%
0
37
✓
WMU −11.7
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Wichita State
63%
37%
14
31
✗
Southern Illinois −5.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Appalachian State at James Madison Appalachian State −11.0 75%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Boise State at Utah Utah −1.0 54%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Chattanooga at Jacksonville State Chattanooga −5.6 63%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Presbyterian at The Citadel The Citadel −2.7 58%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Rhode Island at Holy Cross Holy Cross −8.7 72%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Nicholls at Illinois State Nicholls −0.8 51%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Lamar at Texas Southern Lamar −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Marshall at Morehead State Marshall −7.0 66%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Santa Clara at San Jose State San Jose State −25.4 95%