The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

23 upsets against 17.9 expected

  • Biggest shockUTEP over Hawaii9.3% chance · won 34-14
  • Runner-upHarvard over Army9.6% chance · won 15-10
  • Runner-upPacific over Washington State11% chance · won 24-22

Upsets

Fri, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
5.1%
95%
0
45
✓
ALA −27.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 59 games

Final
66%
34%
23
6
✓
APP −6.8
–
–
Final
43%
57%
5
3
✗
IOWA −3.0
–
–
Final
13%
87%
7
44
✓
ARK −18.6
–
–
Final
Richmond@Auburn
10%
90%
16
55
✓
AUB −21.3
–
–
Final
27%
73%
12
24
✓
BAY −10.3
–
–
Final
16%
84%
17
14
✗
WMU −16.4
–
–
Final
Brown@Princeton
45%
55%
28
11
✗
Princeton −2.1
–
–
Final
25%
75%
10
14
✓
CMU −11.4
–
–
Final
VMI@The Citadel
33%
67%
0
28
✓
The Citadel −7.5
–
–
Final
30%
70%
10
13
✓
CLEM −8.9
–
–
Final
Drake@Texas-Arlington
44%
56%
30
20
✗
Texas-Arlington −2.6
–
–
Final
31%
70%
18
14
✗
NEB −8.6
–
–
Final
Furman@Chattanooga
27%
73%
42
28
✗
Chattanooga −10.4
–
–
Final
Harvard@ArmyUpset
9.6%
90%
15
10
✗
ARMY −21.7
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Holy Cross
40%
60%
6
17
✓
Holy Cross −4.4
–
–
Final
11%
89%
21
31
✓
IU −20.8
–
–
Final
9.6%
90%
0
69
✓
ISU −21.7
–
–
Final
14%
86%
23
8
✗
SYR −18.0
–
–
Final
72%
28%
14
15
✗
OHIO −9.3
–
–
Final
LSU@#23FloridaUpset
30%
70%
24
7
✗
FLA −8.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@McNeese
65%
35%
7
24
✗
BALL −6.1
–
–
Final
46%
54%
3
24
✓
MEM −1.6
–
–
Final
21%
79%
13
38
✓
MICH −13.4
–
–
Final
82%
18%
49
21
✓
MINN −15.4
–
–
Final
72%
28%
28
21
✓
MSST −9.8
–
–
Final
34%
66%
0
21
✓
NAVY −6.9
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@UNLV
4.4%
96%
17
36
✓
UNLV −28.5
–
–
Final
38%
62%
24
21
✗
WYO −5.2
–
–
Final
8.6%
91%
0
33
✓
UNC −22.8
–
–
Final
20%
80%
20
22
✓
UNT −13.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Southern Illinois
72%
28%
20
17
✓
NIU −9.8
–
–
Final
65%
35%
26
21
✓
ND −6.2
–
–
Final
91%
9.2%
82
42
✓
OU −22.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@Washington StateUpset
11%
89%
24
22
✗
WSU −20.8
–
–
Final
29%
71%
29
21
✗
MIZ −9.1
–
–
Final
Columbia@Pennsylvania
56%
44%
13
24
✗
Columbia −2.6
–
–
Final
20%
80%
9
38
✓
PITT −14.2
–
–
Final
59%
41%
3
28
✗
M-OH −3.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Cornell
97%
3.4%
44
3
✓
RUTG −30.3
–
–
Final
30%
70%
10
30
✓
SC −8.7
–
–
Final
22%
78%
21
23
✓
USC −13.0
–
–
Final
42%
58%
31
21
✗
TULN −3.5
–
–
Final
19%
81%
22
28
✓
USM −14.7
–
–
Final
16%
84%
21
35
✓
STAN −16.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee State@Long Beach State
59%
41%
35
18
✓
Tennessee State −3.8
–
–
Final
90%
10%
41
28
✓
TEX −21.2
–
–
Final
51%
49%
21
41
✗
TTU −0.3
–
–
Final
9.3%
91%
34
14
✗
HAW −22.0
–
–
Final
45%
55%
0
3
✓
TLSA −2.4
–
–
Final
27%
73%
17
0
✗
OSU −10.2
–
–
Final
51%
49%
23
19
✓
UTAH −0.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Villanova
48%
52%
6
23
✓
Villanova −1.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@William & Mary
95%
5.1%
27
7
✓
WAKE −27.0
–
–
Final
76%
24%
24
18
✓
WASH −11.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@West Texas
35%
65%
15
17
✓
West Texas −6.4
–
–
Final
45%
55%
21
45
✓
WVU −2.2
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Wichita State
60%
40%
20
46
✗
Indiana State −4.0
–
–
Final
56%
44%
12
35
✗
SDSU −2.5
–
–
Final
32%
68%
16
17
✓
Yale −7.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Colgate at UConn UConn −7.3 67%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Illinois State at Eastern Illinois Eastern Illinois −9.0 70%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Cal Poly at Fresno State Fresno State −10.8 74%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Louisiana Tech at East Tennessee State Louisiana Tech −14.1 80%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −19.0 87%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Boston University at Temple Temple −19.0 87%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −8.6 70%