The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 69 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

17 upsets against 15.7 expected

  • Biggest shockWichita State over Tulsa3.9% chance · won 23-10
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Arkansas State17% chance · won 35-12
  • Runner-upMurray State over Louisville17% chance · won 13-9

Upsets

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
#3Alabama@Ole Miss
76%
24%
59
35
✓
ALA −11.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#18Arizona State
3.9%
96%
14
42
✓
ASU −29.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#11Arkansas
12%
88%
20
33
✓
ARK −19.8
–
–
Final
California@Army
62%
38%
19
26
✗
CAL −4.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Auburn
9.4%
91%
28
35
✓
AUB −22.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
27%
73%
7
27
✓
BALL −10.1
–
–
Final
West Texas@#13Baylor
3.0%
97%
15
43
✓
BAY −31.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@Boston College
59%
41%
13
30
✗
STAN −3.6
–
–
Final
#9BYU@Wisconsin
82%
18%
28
3
✓
BYU −15.1
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Central Michigan
0.7%
99%
0
16
✓
CMU −40.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Chattanooga
35%
65%
7
14
✓
Chattanooga −6.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@ArizonaUpset
20%
80%
15
13
✗
ARIZ −14.2
–
–
Final
Princeton@Cornell
35%
65%
7
17
✓
Cornell −6.6
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Dartmouth
17%
83%
7
40
✓
Dartmouth −15.9
–
–
Final
Drake@LamarUpset
25%
75%
38
7
✗
Lamar −11.4
–
–
Final
Florida@Georgia Tech
56%
44%
45
12
✓
FLA −2.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#1Florida State
14%
86%
7
63
✓
FSU −18.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Fresno State
72%
28%
14
16
✗
UL −9.5
–
–
Final
Furman@Western Carolina
54%
46%
28
14
✓
Furman −1.7
–
–
Final
#21Clemson@#12Georgia
34%
66%
16
20
✓
UGA −6.9
–
–
Final
Columbia@Harvard
19%
81%
6
26
✓
Harvard −14.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@Hawaii
1.7%
98%
14
25
✓
HAW −35.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
39%
61%
36
30
✗
UK −4.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Iowa State
30%
70%
6
27
✓
ISU −8.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Bowling GreenUpset
18%
82%
23
21
✗
BGSU −15.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#24LSU
9.9%
90%
20
23
✓
LSU −21.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas StateUpset
17%
84%
35
12
✗
ARST −16.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@West Virginia
42%
58%
14
11
✗
WVU −3.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#25HoustonUpset
35%
65%
14
7
✗
HOU −6.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Vanderbilt
88%
12%
24
14
✓
MSST −19.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@#10Missouri
14%
86%
7
52
✓
MIZ −18.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Navy
12%
88%
3
31
✓
NAVY −19.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@#2Nebraska
13%
87%
0
57
✓
NEB −19.1
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@New Mexico State
14%
86%
17
18
✓
NMSU −18.3
–
–
Final
#22NC State@Virginia
56%
44%
27
13
✓
NCSU −2.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTEP
71%
29%
35
15
✓
UNT −8.9
–
–
Final
Michigan@#14Notre Dame
31%
69%
27
29
✓
ND −8.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
21%
79%
6
34
✓
OHIO −13.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#7Ohio State
22%
78%
0
47
✓
OSU −12.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Oregon
52%
48%
7
35
✗
MSU −0.8
–
–
Final
#17Penn State@Texas A&M
60%
40%
25
9
✓
PSU −3.9
–
–
Final
#16Pittsburgh@Kansas
81%
19%
18
3
✓
PITT −14.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#23Rutgers
10%
90%
7
24
✓
RUTG −20.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
74%
26%
13
10
✓
SDSU −10.7
–
–
Final
#20South Carolina@#5USC
24%
76%
13
23
✓
USC −11.7
–
–
Final
TCU@SMU
21%
79%
14
17
✓
SMU −13.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Southern Miss
9.6%
90%
11
38
✓
USM −21.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Syracuse
42%
58%
24
36
✓
SYR −3.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@Tennessee
15%
85%
23
35
✓
TENN −17.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@#8Texas
9.2%
91%
17
35
✓
TEX −22.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
27%
73%
17
28
✓
TTU −10.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
12%
88%
14
35
✓
TULN −19.4
–
–
Final
#15UCLA@Purdue
62%
38%
23
14
✓
UCLA −5.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah
70%
30%
29
45
✗
UNLV −8.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@VMI
73%
27%
3
17
✗
MRSH −10.0
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Virginia Tech
1.7%
98%
3
7
✓
VT −35.3
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Wake Forest
9.5%
90%
7
24
✓
WAKE −21.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#6Washington
1.9%
98%
7
45
✓
WASH −34.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
66%
34%
35
6
✓
WMU −6.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Wichita StateUpset
96%
3.9%
10
23
✗
TLSA −29.2
–
–
Final
Richmond@Wyoming
7.5%
92%
14
35
✓
WYO −24.0
–
–
Final
Yale@Brown
47%
53%
45
17
✗
Brown −1.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Northern Arizona at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −4.5 60%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Delaware at Temple Temple −9.4 71%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Indiana State Indiana State −0.7 52%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD South Dakota at Kansas State Kansas State −18.8 87%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Villanova at UMass UMass −15.1 82%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Nicholls at McNeese McNeese −29.1 96%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Murray State at Louisville Louisville −16.2 83%