The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

15 upsets against 16.1 expected

  • Biggest shockRichmond over Virginia Tech7.9% chance · won 18-7
  • Runner-upSE Louisiana over Louisiana-Monroe15% chance · won 55-30
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Nevada15% chance · won 17-16

Upsets

Sat, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 61 games

Final
#13Southern Miss@#3Alabama
23%
77%
7
42
✓
ALA −11.4
–
–
Final
Pacific@#25Arizona State
1.9%
98%
9
37
✓
ASU −32.9
–
–
Final
#12Baylor@TCU
93%
6.6%
21
6
✓
BAY −24.5
–
–
Final
Army@Boston College
21%
78%
14
30
✓
BC −12.2
–
–
Final
#11BYU@Hawaii
88%
12%
34
7
✓
BYU −19.5
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Brown
37%
63%
3
21
✓
Brown −5.0
–
–
Final
Columbia@Colgate
4.6%
95%
22
35
✓
Colgate −26.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
69%
31%
21
21
✓
UTAH −8.6
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Cornell
57%
43%
3
7
✗
Dartmouth −3.3
–
–
Final
Drake@New Mexico State
52%
48%
28
22
✓
Drake −1.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@Florida
17%
83%
0
13
✓
FLA −14.9
–
–
Final
#2Florida State@Memphis
>99%
0.5%
24
3
✓
FSU −41.8
–
–
Final
Furman@Appalachian State
26%
74%
21
20
✗
APP −9.9
–
–
Final
#17Georgia@Kentucky
82%
18%
27
0
✓
UGA −15.3
–
–
Final
#19Arkansas@HoustonUpset
58%
42%
17
24
✗
ARK −3.7
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Illinois State
75%
25%
0
9
✗
Indiana State −11.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
96%
3.9%
35
20
✓
IU −28.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
36%
64%
14
14
✗
KU −5.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
29%
71%
12
35
✓
KENT −8.2
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Oregon State
53%
47%
31
21
✓
Long Beach State −1.7
–
–
Final
Lamar@Louisiana
24%
76%
10
38
✓
UL −11.1
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@Marshall
44%
56%
13
13
✗
MRSH −1.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@Duke
63%
37%
17
14
✓
MD −5.6
–
–
Final
McNeese@Arkansas State
77%
23%
36
28
✓
McNeese −12.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
26%
74%
3
7
✓
M-OH −9.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#20Michigan
9.3%
91%
14
45
✓
MICH −20.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
46%
54%
6
24
✓
MINN −1.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
86%
14%
27
14
✓
MISS −17.9
–
–
Final
Auburn@Mississippi State
38%
62%
21
24
✓
MSST −4.4
–
–
Final
#7Missouri@Kansas State
91%
9.0%
13
3
✓
MIZ −21.9
–
–
Final
Navy@#21WashingtonUpset
27%
73%
24
10
✗
WASH −9.5
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Colorado
>99%
0.2%
45
7
✓
NEB −45.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
80%
20%
22
21
✓
UNM −13.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#9North Carolina
7.8%
92%
3
31
✓
UNC −22.4
–
–
Final
Clemson@NC State
44%
56%
20
24
✓
NCSU −2.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wichita State
60%
40%
17
14
✓
NIU −4.3
–
–
Final
#15Notre Dame@Arizona
85%
15%
20
3
✓
ND −17.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
34%
66%
9
24
✓
OHIO −6.2
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@Wisconsin
91%
9.1%
21
0
✓
OSU −21.7
–
–
Final
#18Oklahoma@#24Iowa State
53%
47%
42
7
✓
OU −1.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Oregon
48%
52%
9
32
✓
ORE −0.4
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@West Virginia
84%
16%
20
15
✓
PSU −16.5
–
–
Final
#6Pittsburgh@#22Tennessee
64%
36%
30
6
✓
PITT −6.1
–
–
Final
Harvard@Princeton
56%
44%
3
7
✗
Harvard −2.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#23Purdue
22%
78%
25
36
✓
PUR −11.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas A&M
26%
74%
10
6
✗
TA&M −9.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@RichmondUpset
92%
7.9%
7
18
✗
VT −23.0
–
–
Final
SMU@#14TexasUpset
27%
73%
20
6
✗
TEX −9.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
69%
31%
48
34
✓
STAN −8.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
47%
53%
9
17
✓
SYR −0.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Temple
17%
83%
7
23
✓
TEM −14.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas-Arlington
71%
29%
20
21
✗
LT −9.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Georgia Tech
79%
21%
31
14
✓
TULN −13.3
–
–
Final
West Texas@Tulsa
21%
79%
24
44
✓
TLSA −12.2
–
–
Final
#4UCLA@California
88%
12%
32
9
✓
UCLA −19.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
64%
36%
14
0
✓
USU −6.2
–
–
Final
Villanova@VMI
72%
28%
17
6
✓
Villanova −9.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake ForestUpset
22%
78%
24
21
✗
WAKE −11.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
54%
46%
17
15
✓
WMU −1.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
23%
77%
9
34
✓
WYO −11.5
–
–
Final
Yale@Pennsylvania
97%
3.0%
8
0
✓
Yale −30.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Nevada Nevada −15.8 85%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Northwestern State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −22.5 92%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD East Tennessee State at Chattanooga Chattanooga −21.7 92%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Wofford at The Citadel The Citadel −19.2 89%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Delaware at William & Mary Delaware −26.0 94%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Idaho at San Jose State San Jose State −34.8 99%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD SE Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −16.1 85%