Week 5 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

24 upsets against 17.4 expected

Biggest shockNorthwestern State over McNeese8.8% chance · won 13-10
Runner-upVillanova over Boston College11% chance · won 20-9
Runner-upWichita State over Cincinnati12% chance · won 13-8

Upsets

Chattanooga 13, The Citadel 29The Citadel won; the model gave them 21% before kickoff
Florida State 9, Miami (FL) 10Miami (FL) won; the model gave them 20% before kickoff
Oregon 34, Washington 10Oregon won; the model gave them 13% before kickoff
LSU 7, Rice 17Rice won; the model gave them 18% before kickoff
Southern Illinois 34, Drake 28Southern Illinois won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff
Stanford 31, Oklahoma 14Stanford won; the model gave them 13% before kickoff
Boston College 9, Villanova 20Villanova won; the model gave them 12% before kickoff
Wake Forest 27, NC State 7Wake Forest won; the model gave them 13% before kickoff
Wichita State 13, Cincinnati 8Wichita State won; the model gave them 12% before kickoff

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 58 games

Final

Illinois@

Air Force

62%
38%

20
20

✓

ILL −5.0

–

Final

Vanderbilt@

#3Alabama

0.8%
99%

0
41

✓

ALA −39.7

–

Final

Arizona@

California

44%
56%

31
24

✗

CAL −2.6

–

Final

Tulsa@

#15Arkansas

8.5%
92%

10
13

✓

ARK −22.8

–

Final

#16Baylor@

Texas Tech

59%
41%

11
3

✓

BAY −3.6

–

Final

Long Beach State@

#9BYU

0.9%
99%

25
41

✓

BYU −39.3

–

Final

Kent State@

Central Michigan

5.4%
95%

6
21

✓

CMU −26.8

–

Final

Chattanooga@The CitadelUpset

79%
21%

13
29

✗

Chattanooga −13.3

–

Final

Western Carolina@

#24Clemson

1.1%
99%

10
17

✓

CLEM −38.2

–

Final

Cornell@Colgate

55%
45%

20
38

✗

Cornell −1.8

–

Final

Mississippi State@

#22Florida

36%
64%

15
21

✓

FLA −6.1

–

Final

VMI@Furman

31%
69%

16
21

✓

Furman −8.2

–

Final

TCU@

#17Georgia

14%
86%

3
34

✓

UGA −17.8

–

Final

Memphis@

Georgia Tech

23%
77%

8
17

✓

GT −12.6

–

Final

Holy Cross@Harvard

49%
51%

13
14

✓

Harvard −0.4

–

Final

North Texas@

Houston

27%
73%

17
24

✓

HOU −10.3

–

Final

Indiana@

Colorado

61%
39%

49
7

✓

IU −4.4

–

Final

Iowa State@

Iowa

55%
45%

10
7

✓

ISU −2.1

–

Final

Arkansas State@

Kansas State

27%
73%

7
31

✓

KSU −10.3

–

Final

Bowling Green@

Kentucky

15%
85%

20
21

✓

UK −17.0

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@

Louisiana

32%
68%

24
0

✗

UL −7.6

–

Final

Louisville@

Kansas

30%
70%

17
9

✗

KU −8.9

–

Final

#2Florida State@

Miami (FL)Upset

80%
20%

9
10

✗

FSU −13.6

–

Final

Miami (OH)@

Ball State

38%
62%

42
9

✗

BALL −5.1

–

Final

Western Michigan@

Michigan State

69%
31%

7
33

✗

WMU −8.1

–

Final

#7Missouri@

San Diego State

84%
16%

31
7

✓

MIZ −16.1

–

Final

William & Mary@

Navy

3.8%
96%

6
45

✓

NAVY −29.5

–

Final

#1Nebraska@

#11Penn State

69%
31%

21
7

✓

NEB −8.0

–

Final

UNLV@

Colorado State

55%
45%

56
15

✓

UNLV −2.1

–

Final

New Mexico State@

New Mexico

15%
85%

19
52

✓

UNM −17.2

–

Final

Maryland@

#19North Carolina

29%
71%

3
17

✓

UNC −9.5

–

Final

Northern Illinois@

Ohio

26%
74%

22
21

✗

OHIO −10.9

–

Final

#18Arizona State@

#4Ohio State

22%
78%

21
38

✓

OSU −12.7

–

Final

Oregon@

#8WashingtonUpset

13%
87%

34
10

✗

WASH −18.6

–

Final

UTEP@Pacific

55%
45%

14
28

✗

UTEP −1.9

–

Final

Temple@

#12Pittsburgh

15%
85%

2
36

✓

PITT −17.3

–

Final

LSU@

RiceUpset

82%
18%

7
17

✗

LSU −15.3

–

Final

Princeton@

#25Rutgers

0.8%
99%

13
44

✓

RUTG −40.3

–

Final

#21South Carolina@

Michigan

48%
52%

17
14

✗

MICH −0.9

–

Final

#6USC@

Minnesota

79%
21%

24
7

✓

USC −13.3

–

Final

Southern Illinois@DrakeUpset

24%
76%

34
28

✗

Drake −12.0

–

Final

Texas-Arlington@

SMU

6.7%
93%

16
52

✓

SMU −24.9

–

Final

#23Southern Miss@

East Carolina

59%
41%

35
7

✓

USM −3.7

–

Final

Stanford@

#5OklahomaUpset

13%
87%

31
14

✗

OU −18.8

–

Final

Northwestern@

Syracuse

5.3%
95%

21
42

✓

SYR −26.9

–

Final

Tennessee@

Auburn

45%
55%

42
0

✗

AUB −2.4

–

Final

Oregon State@

#10Texas

2.3%
98%

0
35

✓

TEX −33.2

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@

Toledo

20%
80%

7
49

✓

TOL −14.3

–

Final

Tulane@

Ole Miss

53%
47%

26
24

✓

TULN −1.1

–

Final

Wisconsin@

#13UCLA

6.8%
93%

0
35

✓

UCLA −24.9

–

Final

Fresno State@

Utah

16%
84%

12
27

✓

UTAH −16.8

–

Final

Boston College@VillanovaUpset

88%
12%

9
20

✗

BC −19.9

–

Final

Virginia@

Duke

66%
34%

20
17

✓

UVA −6.8

–

Final

Wake Forest@

#14NC StateUpset

13%
87%

27
7

✗

NCSU −18.9

–

Final

Army@

Washington State

43%
57%

18
31

✓

WSU −2.9

–

Final

Richmond@

West Virginia

3.2%
97%

28
31

✓

WVU −30.7

–

Final

Wichita State@

CincinnatiUpset

12%
88%

13
8

✗

CIN −19.5

–

Final

Hawaii@

Wyoming

50%
50%

20
45

✗

HAW −0.1

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Fri, Sep 26 · TBD	Lehigh at Pennsylvania	Lehigh −20.6	89%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	East Tennessee State at Appalachian State	Appalachian State −21.9	90%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Bucknell at Brown	Bucknell −3.1	58%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Lafayette at Columbia	Lafayette −16.8	85%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Akron at Indiana State	Akron −7.3	67%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Lamar at Stephen F. Austin	Stephen F. Austin −4.3	60%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Western Illinois at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech −17.2	85%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	New Hampshire at Dartmouth	New Hampshire −2.6	56%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Northwestern State at McNeese	McNeese −22.6	91%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	SE Louisiana at Illinois State	SE Louisiana −6.4	65%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	James Madison at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech −35.1	98%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	Texas State at West Texas	West Texas −3.5	58%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD	UConn at Yale	Yale −6.1	64%