The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

19 upsets against 17.6 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana over East Carolina6.6% chance · won 27-21
  • Runner-upWest Texas over Oklahoma State9.4% chance · won 20-19
  • Runner-upRichmond over Villanova14% chance · won 21-7

Upsets

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 51 games

Final
The Citadel@Appalachian State
9.2%
91%
14
17
✓
APP −20.3
–
–
Final
#19Houston@Arizona StateUpset
51%
49%
13
29
✗
HOU −0.8
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Army
13%
87%
7
28
✓
ARMY −17.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@TCU
62%
38%
10
7
✓
AUB −5.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
66%
34%
18
17
✓
BALL −6.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@Lamar
80%
20%
42
7
✓
BAY −13.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#6BYU
16%
84%
11
35
✓
BYU −14.7
–
–
Final
#20Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
55%
45%
15
14
✓
CMU −2.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Clemson
14%
86%
3
19
✓
CLEM −16.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
25%
75%
18
16
✗
BGSU −10.1
–
–
Final
California@Florida
59%
41%
13
41
✗
CAL −4.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@#2Florida State
6.0%
94%
0
52
✓
FSU −23.8
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@GeorgiaUpset
54%
46%
0
42
✗
TA&M −2.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
51%
49%
17
20
✗
MSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Indiana
38%
62%
16
7
✗
IU −4.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Iowa State
24%
76%
7
42
✓
ISU −10.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@Kansas
51%
49%
7
7
✓
ORE −0.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#7East CarolinaUpset
6.6%
93%
27
21
✗
ECU −23.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@LSU
21%
79%
0
21
✓
LSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Marshall
48%
52%
7
17
✓
MRSH −0.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Maryland
15%
86%
6
31
✓
MD −15.9
–
–
Final
McNeese@ToledoUpset
24%
76%
20
17
✗
TOL −10.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#24Michigan
3.8%
96%
10
17
✓
MICH −27.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Minnesota
38%
62%
14
38
✓
MINN −4.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
20%
80%
7
61
✓
MISS −12.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#17Mississippi State
13%
87%
11
31
✓
MSST −17.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Missouri
35%
65%
16
47
✓
MIZ −5.6
–
–
Final
Utah@#12Nebraska
13%
87%
9
55
✓
NEB −16.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
14%
86%
6
35
✓
UNLV −16.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
37%
63%
3
6
✓
NMSU −4.7
–
–
Final
#14North Carolina@Texas Tech
51%
49%
9
3
✓
UNC −1.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#15Ohio State
24%
76%
21
31
✓
OSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#10Oklahoma
29%
71%
7
29
✓
OU −8.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@#18Pittsburgh
21%
79%
6
14
✓
PITT −12.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Wisconsin
55%
44%
12
6
✓
PUR −2.7
–
–
Final
Richmond@VillanovaUpset
14%
86%
21
7
✗
Villanova −16.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#23TempleUpset
27%
73%
21
3
✗
TEM −9.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Washington State
41%
59%
31
26
✗
WSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Wichita State@#16South Carolina
0.6%
99%
0
73
✓
SC −39.3
–
–
Final
#9USC@Tennessee
56%
44%
20
17
✓
USC −3.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@SMU
41%
59%
9
28
✓
SMU −2.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@#25Stanford
40%
60%
14
19
✓
STAN −3.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Tulsa
34%
66%
13
31
✓
TLSA −6.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@UCLA
27%
73%
14
56
✓
UCLA −9.0
–
–
Final
Navy@Virginia
37%
63%
3
6
✓
UVA −4.7
–
–
Final
VMI@William & Mary
47%
53%
13
10
✗
William & Mary −0.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@#22Washington
7.7%
92%
7
50
✓
WASH −21.7
–
–
Final
West Texas@Oklahoma StateUpset
9.4%
91%
20
19
✗
OKST −20.0
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Colorado State
46%
54%
52
24
✗
CSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Illinois State
98%
2.3%
31
17
✓
WMU −31.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Wyoming
34%
66%
10
30
✓
WYO −5.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD UT Martin at Arkansas State Arkansas State −19.5 90%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Cal Poly at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −0.4 52%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Chattanooga at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −4.7 63%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Lehigh at Colgate Lehigh −9.2 72%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Augustana (South Dakota) at Drake Augustana (South Dakota) −3.8 58%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Presbyterian at Furman Furman −4.4 62%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Abilene Christian at Hawaii Hawaii −25.5 95%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Florida A&M at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −29.3 97%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Northwestern State at Texas-Arlington Texas-Arlington −15.1 84%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Idaho at Pacific Pacific −5.1 64%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois Eastern Illinois −11.5 76%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Western Carolina Western Carolina −1.0 54%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −36.4 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD East Tennessee State at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −21.2 92%