The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1980

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

14 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over Notre Dame3.1% chance · won 3-3
  • Runner-upVMI over Appalachian State7.4% chance · won 16-16
  • Runner-upCornell over Yale11% chance · won 24-6

Upsets

Sat, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 60 games

Final
12%
88%
7
28
✓
ALA −18.3
–
–
Final
7.4%
93%
16
16
✗
APP −22.7
–
–
Final
19%
80%
6
34
✓
ASU −13.3
–
–
Final
38%
62%
24
47
✓
ARMY −4.6
–
–
Final
71%
29%
0
31
✗
USM −9.4
–
–
Final
16%
84%
7
34
✓
BALL −15.3
–
–
Final
32%
68%
15
42
✓
BAY −7.2
–
–
Final
8.2%
92%
23
41
✓
BYU −21.8
–
–
Final
34%
66%
10
32
✓
CMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@Chattanooga
19%
81%
14
39
✓
Chattanooga −13.8
–
–
Final
45%
55%
10
14
✓
CIN −1.3
–
–
Final
21%
79%
7
37
✓
CSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Cornell@YaleUpset
11%
89%
24
6
✗
Yale −19.5
–
–
Final
Columbia@Dartmouth
9.6%
90%
0
48
✓
Dartmouth −20.5
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
7
31
✓
FSU −25.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Southern Illinois
45%
55%
31
14
✗
Southern Illinois −1.4
–
–
Final
27%
73%
21
26
✓
UGA −9.3
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Harvard
57%
43%
13
24
✗
William & Mary −3.4
–
–
Final
27%
73%
6
31
✓
HAW −9.2
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Eastern Michigan
40%
60%
15
7
✗
EMU −3.6
–
–
Final
16%
84%
10
31
✓
UK −15.4
–
–
Final
45%
55%
22
23
✓
Lamar −1.5
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Cal State Fullerton
58%
42%
20
10
✓
Long Beach State −3.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas-Arlington
72%
28%
30
13
✓
UL −9.7
–
–
Final
53%
47%
45
8
✓
McNeese −1.8
–
–
Final
20%
80%
10
23
✓
MIA −13.0
–
–
Final
42%
58%
24
34
✓
M-OH −2.7
–
–
Final
88%
12%
24
0
✓
MICH −18.8
–
–
Final
7.9%
92%
10
42
✓
MSU −22.2
–
–
Final
51%
49%
7
31
✗
IU −1.0
–
–
Final
19%
82%
10
14
✓
MIZ −13.8
–
–
Final
49%
51%
6
3
✗
PK
–
–
Final
0.9%
99%
8
55
✓
NEB −38.0
–
–
Final
22%
78%
26
33
✓
UNLV −11.7
–
–
Final
Wichita State@New Mexico State
38%
62%
14
14
✗
NMSU −4.4
–
–
Final
73%
27%
24
19
✓
UNC −10.1
–
–
Final
3.1%
97%
3
3
✗
ND −29.5
–
–
Final
7.8%
92%
20
28
✓
OHIO −22.4
–
–
Final
2.5%
98%
42
49
✓
OSU −31.1
–
–
Final
89%
11%
21
19
✓
OU −19.9
–
–
Final
24%
76%
7
42
✓
OKST −10.7
–
–
Final
#24Oregon@#9UCLAUpset
21%
79%
20
14
✗
UCLA −12.3
–
–
Final
11%
89%
13
21
✓
PSU −19.0
–
–
Final
2.3%
98%
23
41
✓
PITT −31.7
–
–
Final
17%
83%
13
58
✓
PUR −14.8
–
–
Final
62%
38%
19
17
✓
RUTG −5.4
–
–
Final
82%
18%
28
23
✓
SJSU −15.0
–
–
Final
The Citadel@#15South Carolina
4.9%
95%
24
45
✓
SC −26.1
–
–
Final
66%
34%
34
9
✓
USC −6.8
–
–
Final
80%
20%
34
14
✓
SMU −14.0
–
–
Final
35%
65%
13
15
✓
TEX −5.7
–
–
Final
74%
26%
17
24
✗
TTU −10.7
–
–
Final
42%
58%
6
13
✓
TOL −2.8
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Tulsa
18%
82%
7
30
✓
TLSA −14.2
–
–
Final
25%
75%
21
49
✓
UTAH −10.1
–
–
Final
Villanova@Pennsylvania
96%
3.5%
34
3
✓
Villanova −29.3
–
–
Final
60%
40%
27
24
✓
WAKE −4.5
–
–
Final
17%
83%
22
45
✓
WASH −14.7
–
–
Final
10.0%
90%
7
28
✓
WSU −20.1
–
–
Final
46%
54%
41
28
✗
TEM −1.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Nebraska-Omaha at Drake Drake −15.1 84%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Davidson at Furman Furman −21.3 91%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Mississippi College at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −13.2 80%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD UMass at Holy Cross UMass −15.9 83%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Maine at Princeton Maine −4.0 59%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Utah State at Weber State Utah State −16.4 84%