The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 36 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 9.0 expected

  • Biggest shockLamar over Baylor1.8% chance · won 18-17
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Cincinnati12% chance · won 19-13
  • Runner-upPacific over Central Michigan14% chance · won 10-3

Upsets

Sat, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 30 games

Final
#4Alabama@LSU
62%
38%
24
7
✓
ALA −5.2
–
–
Final
TCU@Auburn
27%
73%
16
24
✓
AUB −9.0
–
–
Final
#5BYU@Long Beach State
89%
11%
31
8
✓
BYU −19.2
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@East Carolina
11%
89%
6
42
✓
ECU −18.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@#2Florida State
14%
86%
0
17
✓
FSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Oregon@Fresno State
69%
31%
16
23
✗
ORE −8.3
–
–
Final
#24Tennessee@#14Georgia
34%
66%
0
44
✓
UGA −5.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#22Houston
20%
80%
10
21
✓
HOU −12.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Tulsa
44%
56%
15
11
✗
TLSA −1.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Kentucky
44%
56%
6
28
✓
UK −1.9
–
–
Final
Lamar@#17BaylorUpset
1.8%
98%
18
17
✗
BAY −32.6
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Louisiana-Monroe
19%
81%
8
38
✓
ULM −13.0
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@McNeese
13%
87%
12
27
✓
McNeese −17.3
–
–
Final
Florida@#13Miami (FL)
32%
68%
20
21
✓
MIA −6.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
39%
61%
19
18
✗
TULN −3.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
19%
82%
3
20
✓
MSST −13.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
52%
48%
16
6
✓
UNLV −1.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
50%
50%
14
7
✗
NMSU −0.5
–
–
Final
Richmond@NC State
8.6%
91%
21
27
✓
NCSU −20.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@PacificUpset
86%
14%
3
10
✗
CMU −17.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@#3Pittsburgh
13%
87%
6
26
✓
PITT −17.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
42%
58%
29
27
✗
SYR −2.6
–
–
Final
#21South Carolina@Wake Forest
50%
50%
23
6
✓
SC −0.6
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@#18SMU
3.6%
96%
0
48
✓
SMU −27.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
25%
75%
7
33
✓
USM −9.8
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Temple
8.5%
92%
0
42
✓
TEM −20.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@California
47%
53%
29
28
✗
CAL −0.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
39%
61%
0
10
✓
UTAH −3.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@West Texas
68%
32%
10
17
✗
LT −7.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Wyoming
8.8%
91%
13
38
✓
WYO −20.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD Lenoir Rhyne at Appalachian State Appalachian State −31.8 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD Wofford at Clemson Clemson −33.3 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD Drake at Northern Iowa Drake −5.5 63%
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD Western Illinois at Illinois State Illinois State −6.4 67%
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD Missouri Southern at Wichita State Wichita State −7.1 69%
Sat, Sep 5 · TBD Youngstown State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −18.0 88%