The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 36

Wilder than 36% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 18.9 expected

  • Biggest shockStephen F. Austin over Lamar16% chance · won 13-10
  • Runner-upYale over Navy20% chance · won 23-19
  • Runner-upPrinceton over Brown21% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Fri, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Utah State@#4BYU
2.9%
97%
26
32
✓
BYU −31.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
3.6%
96%
10
38
✓
UTAH −29.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 58 games

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
28%
72%
14
28
✓
AF −9.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#9Alabama
17%
83%
7
38
✓
ALA −16.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona
47%
53%
13
17
✓
ARIZ −1.5
–
–
Final
#18Arizona State@#17Washington
40%
60%
26
7
✗
WASH −4.4
–
–
Final
Army@Harvard
82%
18%
27
13
✓
ARMY −15.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
41%
59%
0
23
✓
BALL −4.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
10%
90%
14
63
✓
CMU −21.3
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Furman
47%
53%
31
28
✗
Furman −1.4
–
–
Final
Clemson@Kentucky
54%
46%
21
3
✓
CLEM −1.4
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Columbia
57%
43%
9
20
✗
Pennsylvania −2.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Drake
53%
47%
7
18
✗
Long Beach State −1.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Duke
33%
67%
14
24
✓
DUKE −7.5
–
–
Final
Florida@LSU
58%
42%
24
10
✓
FLA −3.3
–
–
Final
#13Florida State@#11Ohio State
38%
62%
36
27
✗
OSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Dartmouth
40%
60%
28
0
✗
Dartmouth −4.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@#22Houston
36%
64%
3
24
✓
HOU −6.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
47%
53%
29
38
✓
ILL −1.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@Northwestern
86%
14%
64
0
✓
IOWA −18.1
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@Iowa State
71%
29%
7
7
✓
OU −9.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Kansas
19%
81%
16
17
✓
KU −14.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana Tech
42%
58%
35
0
✗
LT −3.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Louisville
5.2%
95%
0
36
✓
LOU −27.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#20Miami (FL)
11%
89%
16
48
✓
MIA −20.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
29%
72%
13
20
✓
M-OH −9.5
–
–
Final
#15Michigan@Indiana
75%
25%
38
17
✓
MICH −11.1
–
–
Final
#10Missouri@#16Mississippi State
46%
54%
14
3
✗
MSST −1.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@#6Nebraska
11%
89%
3
17
✓
NEB −20.5
–
–
Final
#1North Carolina@Georgia Tech
90%
10%
28
7
✓
UNC −20.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC State
29%
71%
24
30
✓
NCSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#23Notre Dame
16%
84%
7
20
✓
ND −16.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@North Texas
51%
49%
9
0
✓
OKST −0.4
–
–
Final
Temple@#3Penn State
10%
90%
0
30
✓
PSU −21.2
–
–
Final
#5Pittsburgh@South Carolina
68%
32%
42
28
✓
PITT −7.5
–
–
Final
Princeton@BrownUpset
21%
79%
20
17
✗
Brown −13.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Rice
55%
45%
16
20
✗
TULN −1.8
–
–
Final
Cornell@Rutgers
1.2%
99%
17
31
✓
RUTG −37.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
46%
54%
17
15
✗
UNM −1.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
62%
38%
65
33
✓
SJSU −4.8
–
–
Final
#2USC@Oregon State
94%
5.8%
56
22
✓
USC −26.0
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Southern Illinois
31%
69%
3
14
✓
Southern Illinois −8.3
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@#24Southern Miss
2.1%
98%
9
52
✓
USM −33.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@Syracuse
55%
45%
17
17
✓
MD −2.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Texas Tech
59%
41%
24
23
✓
TA&M −3.6
–
–
Final
#25Arkansas@TCUUpset
67%
33%
24
28
✗
ARK −7.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
40%
60%
14
21
✓
TOL −4.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Tulsa
31%
69%
21
35
✓
TLSA −8.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#12UCLA
8.7%
91%
7
27
✓
UCLA −22.6
–
–
Final
William & Mary@VMI
24%
76%
14
31
✓
VMI −12.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Virginia Tech
25%
75%
13
17
✓
VT −11.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Wake Forest
37%
63%
14
15
✓
WAKE −5.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@Washington State
6.1%
94%
0
31
✓
WSU −25.7
–
–
Final
West Texas@McNeeseUpset
22%
78%
31
24
✗
McNeese −12.9
–
–
Final
#21West Virginia@Boston College
64%
36%
38
10
✓
WVU −6.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling Green
47%
53%
21
7
✗
BGSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Wichita State@New Mexico State
50%
50%
24
20
✓
NMSU −0.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Wisconsin
53%
47%
14
20
✗
PUR −1.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wyoming
38%
62%
21
45
✓
WYO −5.1
–
–
Final
Navy@YaleUpset
80%
20%
19
23
✗
NAVY −14.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Cal Poly at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −4.5 60%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Boston University at Colgate Colgate −18.4 86%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD The Citadel at East Tennessee State The Citadel −11.3 76%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Western Carolina Middle Tennessee −2.2 56%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD James Madison at Richmond Richmond −20.5 89%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Lamar Lamar −16.7 84%