The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 64

Wilder than 64% of weeks in the archive.

23 upsets against 19.7 expected

  • Biggest shockTennessee State over Louisville11% chance · won 42-30
  • Runner-upIowa State over Missouri21% chance · won 34-13
  • Runner-upPacific over Long Beach State23% chance · won 17-10

Upsets

Sat, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
Tennessee@#8Alabama
14%
86%
19
38
✓
ALA −17.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon
47%
53%
18
14
✗
ORE −1.3
–
–
Final
California@#10Arizona State
14%
86%
17
45
✓
ASU −18.2
–
–
Final
#12Texas@ArkansasUpset
58%
42%
11
42
✗
TEX −3.2
–
–
Final
Princeton@Army
5.4%
95%
0
34
✓
ARMY −26.7
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia Tech
56%
44%
31
7
✓
AUB −2.5
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Baylor
43%
57%
17
19
✓
BAY −3.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
48%
52%
17
10
✗
NIU −1.0
–
–
Final
#14BYU@San Diego State
65%
35%
27
7
✓
BYU −6.1
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Arkansas State
30%
70%
3
2
✗
ARST −8.8
–
–
Final
Richmond@Cincinnati
33%
67%
18
27
✓
CIN −7.4
–
–
Final
#19Clemson@Duke
71%
29%
38
10
✓
CLEM −8.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Colorado
65%
35%
10
11
✗
OKST −6.4
–
–
Final
Cornell@Brown
29%
71%
14
9
✗
Brown −9.5
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Harvard
39%
61%
24
10
✗
Harvard −4.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@East Carolina
40%
60%
31
35
✓
ECU −4.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#24Florida
20%
80%
3
49
✓
FLA −13.8
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@Vanderbilt
92%
7.9%
53
21
✓
UGA −23.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
35%
65%
13
23
✓
HAW −6.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
56%
44%
16
17
✗
MINN −2.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@#11MichiganUpset
29%
71%
9
7
✗
MICH −9.5
–
–
Final
#6Missouri@Iowa StateUpset
79%
21%
13
34
✗
MIZ −13.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
46%
54%
17
7
✗
BALL −1.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@LSU
42%
58%
10
24
✓
LSU −3.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Lamar
45%
55%
16
7
✗
Lamar −2.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
66%
34%
45
33
✓
MD −6.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@McNeese
39%
61%
25
41
✓
McNeese −4.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
48%
52%
19
20
✓
M-OH −0.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Michigan State
62%
38%
14
33
✗
WIS −5.2
–
–
Final
#16Miami (FL)@#23Mississippi State
48%
52%
10
14
✓
MSST −0.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Boston College
58%
42%
25
10
✓
NAVY −3.4
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@Kansas State
95%
4.7%
49
3
✓
NEB −27.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Illinois State
50%
50%
20
10
✗
Illinois State −0.3
–
–
Final
#1North Carolina@NC State
88%
12%
21
10
✓
UNC −19.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
7.1%
93%
7
29
✓
OHIO −24.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@#20Ohio State
19%
81%
27
34
✓
OSU −14.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@#17Oklahoma
18%
82%
7
45
✓
OU −15.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach StateUpset
23%
77%
17
10
✗
Long Beach State −12.3
–
–
Final
#2Penn State@Syracuse
87%
13%
41
16
✓
PSU −18.5
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@#3Pittsburgh
27%
73%
14
42
✓
PITT −10.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
93%
6.7%
35
0
✓
PUR −24.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas Tech
43%
57%
30
23
✗
TTU −3.1
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@San Jose State
4.9%
95%
23
45
✓
SJSU −27.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@South Carolina
17%
84%
3
21
✓
SC −16.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@#7USC
13%
87%
17
25
✓
USC −18.6
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Fresno State
31%
70%
24
18
✗
FRES −8.6
–
–
Final
#13SMU@#18Houston
47%
53%
38
22
✗
HOU −1.5
–
–
Final
#22Southern Miss@Memphis
72%
28%
10
0
✓
USM −9.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
52%
48%
24
12
✓
TEM −0.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
37%
63%
3
17
✓
TOL −5.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Air Force
61%
39%
31
13
✓
TULN −4.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Indiana State
64%
36%
20
19
✓
TLSA −6.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#15UCLA
24%
76%
17
17
✗
UCLA −12.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Colorado State
79%
21%
24
13
✓
UTAH −13.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Utah State
50%
50%
13
13
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@VMI
72%
28%
14
14
✓
APP −9.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
5.8%
94%
17
56
✓
WASH −26.1
–
–
Final
West Texas@Wichita State
44%
56%
23
17
✗
Wichita State −2.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#21West Virginia
26%
74%
6
27
✓
WVU −10.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@William & Mary
56%
44%
7
38
✗
MRSH −2.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Wyoming
2.8%
97%
12
63
✓
WYO −31.7
–
–
Final
Yale@Columbia
98%
2.4%
48
17
✓
Yale −32.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 17 · TBD Davidson at The Citadel The Citadel −16.5 84%
Sat, Oct 17 · TBD Lafayette at Colgate Colgate −27.0 95%
Sat, Oct 17 · TBD Holy Cross at UConn UConn −6.0 64%
Sat, Oct 17 · TBD East Tennessee State at Western Carolina Western Carolina −3.6 58%
Sat, Oct 17 · TBD Furman at James Madison Furman −12.6 78%
Sat, Oct 17 · TBD Tennessee State at Louisville Louisville −20.3 89%