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2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 89

Wilder than 89% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho State over Utah State5.5% chance · won 50-24
  • Runner-upWilliam & Mary over East Carolina6.7% chance · won 31-21
  • Runner-upPrinceton over Yale10% chance · won 35-31

Upsets

Sat, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
#13Alabama@#2Penn StateUpset
22%
78%
31
16
✗
PSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
89%
11%
40
7
✓
ARIZ −19.8
–
–
Final
#22Arkansas@Texas A&M
57%
43%
10
7
✓
ARK −3.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
91%
8.9%
28
0
✓
BGSU −22.0
–
–
Final
#15BYU@Hawaii
58%
42%
13
3
✓
BYU −3.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
64%
36%
28
7
✓
CMU −6.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
43%
57%
0
24
✓
CIN −2.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@#10Clemson
19%
81%
7
21
✓
CLEM −13.7
–
–
Final
Colgate@Holy Cross
50%
50%
32
13
✗
Colgate −0.3
–
–
Final
Columbia@Cornell
15%
85%
9
15
✓
Cornell −16.3
–
–
Final
Brown@Dartmouth
20%
80%
13
38
✓
Dartmouth −13.0
–
–
Final
Drake@Illinois State
73%
27%
13
10
✓
Drake −10.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
43%
57%
7
17
✓
DUKE −2.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#18Florida
11%
89%
12
33
✓
FLA −19.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Long Beach State
52%
48%
31
30
✓
FRES −1.4
–
–
Final
Furman@VMI
64%
36%
33
21
✓
Furman −6.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@#4Georgia
11%
89%
13
24
✓
UGA −19.4
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Harvard
7.8%
92%
7
45
✓
Harvard −22.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
20%
80%
14
35
✓
ILL −12.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Wisconsin
50%
50%
17
7
✗
IOWA −0.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
24%
76%
0
27
✓
KU −10.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Lamar
52%
48%
12
14
✗
UL −1.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana Tech
63%
37%
0
32
✗
ARST −5.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#12Miami (FL)
18%
82%
14
21
✓
MIA −14.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Miami (OH)
23%
77%
3
30
✓
M-OH −11.1
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@Purdue
71%
29%
28
10
✓
MICH −9.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan State
33%
67%
36
43
✓
MSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@LSU
73%
27%
17
9
✓
MSST −10.2
–
–
Final
#14Oklahoma@#19Missouri
51%
49%
14
19
✗
OU −0.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Georgia Tech
71%
29%
20
14
✓
NAVY −9.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#1Nebraska
4.7%
95%
7
31
✓
NEB −26.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
75%
25%
28
16
✓
UNM −11.2
–
–
Final
#5North Carolina@Virginia
92%
7.7%
17
14
✓
UNC −23.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana-Monroe
28%
72%
17
14
✗
ULM −8.7
–
–
Final
#16Notre Dame@Air Force
88%
12%
35
7
✓
ND −19.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
64%
36%
20
37
✗
WMU −6.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#20Ohio State
0.7%
99%
6
70
✓
OSU −39.1
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Oklahoma State
22%
78%
10
31
✓
OKST −12.1
–
–
Final
Army@#3Pittsburgh
0.3%
>99%
0
48
✓
PITT −44.4
–
–
Final
Yale@PrincetonUpset
90%
10%
31
35
✗
Yale −20.7
–
–
Final
Rice@BaylorUpset
15%
85%
17
14
✗
BAY −16.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
55%
44%
38
20
✓
SDSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Jose State
6.1%
94%
25
40
✓
SJSU −24.4
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@New Mexico State
64%
36%
23
15
✓
Southern Illinois −6.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#9SMU
5.8%
94%
6
30
✓
SMU −24.8
–
–
Final
#24Southern Miss@#17Florida State
38%
62%
58
14
✗
FSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
24%
76%
3
42
✓
STAN −11.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
40%
60%
17
27
✓
SYR −3.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tennessee
30%
70%
20
28
✓
TENN −8.0
–
–
Final
TCU@#21Texas
14%
86%
15
31
✓
TEX −16.9
–
–
Final
McNeese@Texas-Arlington
69%
31%
20
21
✗
McNeese −8.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Toledo
27%
73%
0
17
✓
TOL −9.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
70%
30%
24
7
✓
TULN −8.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@West Texas
77%
23%
24
10
✓
TLSA −12.4
–
–
Final
#7Arizona State@#11UCLA
46%
54%
24
34
✓
UCLA −1.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah
52%
48%
27
30
✗
WYO −1.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Richmond
46%
54%
34
22
✗
Richmond −1.0
–
–
Final
#6USC@WashingtonUpset
70%
30%
3
13
✗
USC −8.8
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
22%
78%
0
19
✓
WSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#25West Virginia
11%
89%
3
20
✓
WVU −19.4
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@Marshall
47%
53%
38
28
✗
MRSH −0.8
–
–
Final
William & Mary@East CarolinaUpset
6.7%
93%
31
21
✗
ECU −23.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Tennessee State at Chattanooga Tennessee State −1.1 52%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Wofford at The Citadel The Citadel −22.7 92%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Appalachian State at East Tennessee State Appalachian State −15.1 82%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Utah State at Idaho State Utah State −26.0 94%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Indiana State at Eastern Illinois Indiana State −13.4 79%
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD Northern Michigan at Wichita State Wichita State −13.7 81%