The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 96

Wilder than 96% of weeks in the archive.

25 upsets against 18.5 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona over USC6.0% chance · won 13-10
  • Runner-upLamar over Louisiana-Monroe9.3% chance · won 17-13
  • Runner-upUNLV over BYU9.6% chance · won 45-41

Upsets

Sat, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 63 games

Final
Arizona@#3USCUpset
6.0%
94%
13
10
✗
USC −25.9
–
–
Final
16%
84%
0
24
✓
ASU −16.9
–
–
Final
63%
37%
26
14
✓
ARK −5.4
–
–
Final
38%
62%
3
14
✓
ARST −5.1
–
–
Final
33%
67%
7
19
✓
AUB −7.3
–
–
Final
Brown@Pennsylvania
84%
16%
26
24
✓
Brown −16.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Cal State Fullerton
61%
39%
10
13
✗
FRES −4.7
–
–
Final
38%
62%
15
13
✗
WMU −5.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Chattanooga
17%
83%
0
20
✓
Chattanooga −15.7
–
–
Final
22%
78%
19
9
✗
OHIO −12.9
–
–
Final
14%
86%
0
27
✓
CLEM −18.3
–
–
Final
Drake@Wichita State
43%
57%
24
23
✗
Wichita State −3.1
–
–
Final
59%
41%
7
14
✗
VT −3.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Richmond
54%
46%
17
13
✓
ECU −1.4
–
–
Final
36%
64%
10
15
✓
FLA −6.2
–
–
Final
54%
46%
19
13
✓
FSU −1.6
–
–
Final
68%
32%
18
22
✗
APP −7.4
–
–
Final
76%
24%
37
7
✓
UGA −11.5
–
–
Final
Harvard@Cornell
48%
52%
27
10
✗
Cornell −1.0
–
–
Final
27%
73%
14
9
✗
WYO −10.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana State
68%
32%
7
31
✗
BALL −7.6
–
–
Final
14%
86%
28
42
✓
IOWA −18.1
–
–
Final
39%
61%
10
31
✓
KENT −4.7
–
–
Final
Lamar@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
9.3%
91%
17
13
✗
ULM −22.0
–
–
Final
53%
47%
14
7
✓
LOU −1.2
–
–
Final
30%
70%
7
7
✗
M-OH −8.9
–
–
Final
79%
21%
38
20
✓
MICH −13.1
–
–
Final
4.9%
95%
23
35
✓
MINN −27.5
–
–
Final
91%
8.9%
37
27
✓
MSST −22.2
–
–
Final
3.9%
96%
13
58
✓
MIZ −29.2
–
–
Final
21%
79%
13
30
✓
NAVY −13.4
–
–
Final
4.4%
96%
0
59
✓
NEB −28.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@#8BYUUpset
9.6%
90%
45
41
✗
BYU −21.7
–
–
Final
6.3%
94%
3
26
✓
UNM −25.4
–
–
Final
4.2%
96%
10
48
✓
UNC −28.7
–
–
Final
19%
80%
16
38
✓
UNT −14.4
–
–
Final
32%
68%
20
7
✗
KU −7.7
–
–
Final
4.0%
96%
7
38
✓
PSU −29.2
–
–
Final
59%
41%
17
0
✓
PITT −3.7
–
–
Final
Columbia@Princeton
10%
90%
14
21
✓
Princeton −21.0
–
–
Final
33%
67%
20
44
✓
PUR −7.5
–
–
Final
50%
50%
28
41
✗
TCU −0.1
–
–
Final
59%
41%
17
0
✓
RUTG −3.5
–
–
Final
52%
48%
31
52
✗
ISU −0.7
–
–
Final
55%
45%
28
14
✓
SC −1.8
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@West TexasUpset
21%
79%
29
22
✗
West Texas −13.5
–
–
Final
25%
75%
20
37
✓
SMU −11.3
–
–
Final
57%
43%
13
13
✓
ALA −2.9
–
–
Final
#12UCLA@StanfordUpset
74%
26%
23
26
✗
UCLA −10.8
–
–
Final
Colgate@Temple
10%
90%
0
31
✓
TEM −20.9
–
–
Final
29%
72%
7
10
✓
TENN −9.6
–
–
Final
53%
47%
14
34
✗
OU −1.3
–
–
Final
61%
39%
6
7
✗
HOU −4.4
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@Louisiana TechUpset
24%
76%
31
14
✗
LT −11.6
–
–
Final
89%
11%
42
7
✓
TOL −20.1
–
–
Final
26%
74%
10
14
✓
TULN −10.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
77%
23%
17
14
✓
USU −12.1
–
–
Final
The Citadel@VMI
58%
42%
0
14
✗
The Citadel −3.2
–
–
Final
59%
41%
27
26
✓
WASH −3.6
–
–
Final
78%
22%
23
0
✓
WSU −12.7
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Dartmouth
33%
67%
12
7
✗
Dartmouth −7.3
–
–
Final
61%
39%
21
24
✗
OSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Yale@Holy Cross
55%
44%
29
28
✓
Yale −2.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 10 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Illinois State Eastern Illinois −3.2 58%
Sat, Oct 10 · TBD McNeese at Northwestern State McNeese −12.6 78%
Sat, Oct 10 · TBD Western Carolina at Wofford Western Carolina −3.1 58%