Week 6 slate, 1981
The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.
Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.
Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1
Chaos 96
Wilder than 96% of weeks in the archive.
25 upsets against 18.5 expected
- Biggest shockArizona over USC6.0% chance · won 13-10
- Runner-upLamar over Louisiana-Monroe9.3% chance · won 17-13
- Runner-upUNLV over BYU9.6% chance · won 45-41
Upsets
- Arizona 13, USC 10Arizona won; the model gave them 6% before kickoff
- Cincinnati 19, Ohio 9Cincinnati won; the model gave them 22% before kickoff
- Lamar 17, Louisiana-Monroe 13Lamar won; the model gave them 9% before kickoff
- UNLV 45, BYU 41UNLV won; the model gave them 10% before kickoff
- Southern Illinois 29, West Texas 22Southern Illinois won; the model gave them 21% before kickoff
- UCLA 23, Stanford 26#12 UCLA lost to unranked Stanford
- Houston 6, Texas A&M 7#16 Houston lost to unranked Texas A&M
- Texas-Arlington 31, Louisiana Tech 14Texas-Arlington won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff
- Ohio State 21, Wisconsin 24#19 Ohio State lost to unranked Wisconsin
No games match.
Sat, Oct 10
TimeGamePre
ScoreLive
ModelMarketEdge
Time TBD 63 games
Final
Brown@Pennsylvania
84%
16%
16%
26
24
24
✓
Brown −16.5
–
–
Final
Drake@Wichita State
43%
57%
57%
24
23
23
✗
Wichita State −3.1
–
–
Final
Harvard@Cornell
48%
52%
52%
27
10
10
✗
Cornell −1.0
–
–
Final
Columbia@Princeton
10%
90%
90%
14
21
21
✓
Princeton −21.0
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@West TexasUpset
21%
79%
79%
29
22
22
✗
West Texas −13.5
–
–
Final
The Citadel@VMI
58%
42%
42%
0
14
14
✗
The Citadel −3.2
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Dartmouth
33%
67%
67%
12
7
7
✗
Dartmouth −7.3
–
–
Final
Yale@Holy Cross
55%
44%
44%
29
28
28
✓
Yale −2.2
–
–
Against FCS opponents
| When | Game | Model | Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 10 · TBD | Eastern Illinois at Illinois State | Eastern Illinois −3.2 | 58% |
| Sat, Oct 10 · TBD | McNeese at Northwestern State | McNeese −12.6 | 78% |
| Sat, Oct 10 · TBD | Western Carolina at Wofford | Western Carolina −3.1 | 58% |