The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 52

Wilder than 52% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 18.1 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Carolina over North Carolina11% chance · won 31-13
  • Runner-upWestern Carolina over Chattanooga17% chance · won 24-10
  • Runner-upMinnesota over Iowa18% chance · won 12-10

Upsets

Sat, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 64 games

Final
Air Force@OregonUpset
20%
80%
20
10
✗
ORE −13.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#7Alabama
7.1%
93%
7
31
✓
ALA −23.1
–
–
Final
#6Arizona State@Stanford
74%
26%
62
36
✓
ASU −10.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Baylor
27%
73%
21
34
✓
BAY −9.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@Army
54%
46%
41
6
✓
BC −2.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
60%
40%
0
38
✗
TOL −4.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
36%
64%
3
24
✓
CMU −5.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#14Clemson
14%
86%
7
17
✓
CLEM −17.0
–
–
Final
Colgate@Columbia
96%
3.7%
41
3
✓
Colgate −29.0
–
–
Final
Cornell@Dartmouth
23%
77%
7
42
✓
Dartmouth −11.5
–
–
Final
West Texas@Drake
46%
54%
13
21
✓
Drake −1.3
–
–
Final
#15Florida State@LSU
72%
28%
38
14
✓
FSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Pacific
50%
50%
30
27
✓
FRES −0.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#5Georgia
4.1%
96%
0
21
✓
UGA −27.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
38%
62%
28
10
✗
SDSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Brown@Holy Cross
16%
84%
24
34
✓
Holy Cross −15.3
–
–
Final
Houston@#23ArkansasUpset
37%
63%
20
17
✗
ARK −4.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Illinois
41%
59%
21
23
✓
ILL −3.1
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Indiana State
13%
87%
14
34
✓
Indiana State −17.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
14%
86%
10
17
✓
ISU −16.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
20%
80%
14
17
✓
KU −12.7
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Long Beach State
29%
71%
9
10
✓
Long Beach State −8.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Maryland
17%
84%
21
24
✓
MD −15.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@McNeese
35%
65%
7
21
✓
McNeese −5.7
–
–
Final
#19Miami (FL)@East Carolina
81%
19%
31
6
✓
MIA −14.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
35%
65%
14
40
✓
M-OH −5.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#13Michigan
0.8%
99%
0
38
✓
MICH −38.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#21IowaUpset
18%
82%
12
10
✗
IOWA −13.9
–
–
Final
#25Mississippi State@Auburn
50%
50%
21
17
✗
MSST −0.3
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Navy
2.0%
98%
0
27
✓
NAVY −32.6
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@#11Missouri
61%
39%
6
0
✓
NEB −5.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
76%
24%
17
13
✓
UNM −12.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
74%
26%
30
7
✓
NIU −10.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@#24Ohio State
11%
89%
10
29
✓
OSU −19.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#12Oklahoma
1.3%
99%
3
42
✓
OU −35.3
–
–
Final
Louisville@Oklahoma State
40%
60%
11
19
✓
OKST −3.7
–
–
Final
#17West Virginia@#2Penn State
15%
85%
7
30
✓
PSU −16.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#1Pittsburgh
3.5%
96%
10
23
✓
PITT −28.6
–
–
Final
Harvard@Princeton
55%
45%
17
17
✓
Harvard −2.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Purdue
17%
83%
26
27
✓
PUR −14.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
67%
33%
27
24
✓
SJSU −7.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#4North CarolinaUpset
11%
89%
31
13
✗
UNC −19.3
–
–
Final
#8USC@Notre Dame
57%
43%
14
7
✓
USC −3.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Illinois
61%
39%
0
41
✗
UL −5.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Cincinnati
69%
31%
24
13
✓
TEM −8.5
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Memphis
53%
47%
28
9
✓
TENN −1.6
–
–
Final
#22Texas@#9SMU
27%
73%
9
7
✗
SMU −9.2
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Rice
56%
44%
51
26
✓
TA&M −3.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas-Arlington
65%
35%
6
7
✗
UNT −6.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
68%
32%
29
35
✗
CSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Tulane
27%
73%
10
27
✓
TULN −9.3
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Tulsa
16%
84%
21
52
✓
TLSA −15.4
–
–
Final
California@#18UCLA
15%
85%
6
34
✓
UCLA −16.2
–
–
Final
Utah@UNLV
44%
56%
69
28
✗
UNLV −1.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
26%
74%
27
23
✗
MISS −9.6
–
–
Final
VMI@Marshall
65%
35%
20
16
✓
VMI −6.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Virginia Tech
24%
76%
12
34
✓
VT −11.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
44%
56%
24
21
✗
UVA −1.7
–
–
Final
Washington@Texas Tech
71%
29%
14
7
✓
WASH −9.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona
50%
50%
34
19
✗
WSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Western CarolinaUpset
83%
17%
10
24
✗
Chattanooga −15.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
24%
76%
3
14
✓
WMU −11.1
–
–
Final
#10BYU@WyomingUpset
66%
34%
20
33
✗
BYU −6.9
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Yale
0.8%
99%
3
24
✓
Yale −38.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD Newberry at The Citadel The Citadel −18.0 88%
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD Liberty at Furman Furman −8.1 70%
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −15.7 84%
Sat, Oct 24 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at SE Louisiana Louisiana-Monroe −1.4 52%