The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 21

Wilder than 21% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 15.7 expected

  • Biggest shockLamar over McNeese8.5% chance · won 20-20
  • Runner-upOklahoma State over Missouri15% chance · won 16-12
  • Runner-upCornell over Bucknell22% chance · won 22-15

Upsets

Sat, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 61 games

Final
Army@Air Force
26%
74%
3
7
✓
AF −9.7
–
–
Final
#25Mississippi State@#7Alabama
27%
73%
10
13
✓
ALA −9.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Arizona
3.8%
96%
15
48
✓
ARIZ −28.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#6Arizona State
13%
87%
24
31
✓
ASU −17.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Rice
76%
24%
41
7
✓
ARK −11.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas-Arlington
67%
33%
10
7
✓
ARST −7.3
–
–
Final
#18Florida@AuburnUpset
57%
43%
12
14
✗
FLA −3.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
8.1%
92%
13
35
✓
BALL −22.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
34%
66%
7
13
✓
BGSU −6.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#17BYU
9.9%
90%
7
31
✓
BYU −20.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
12%
88%
3
45
✓
CAL −18.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
56%
44%
38
21
✓
CMU −2.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Cincinnati
65%
35%
13
17
✗
TULN −6.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#14Clemson
9.3%
91%
24
82
✓
CLEM −20.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
52%
48%
38
24
✓
DUKE −1.2
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@#11Florida State
0.4%
>99%
31
56
✓
FSU −42.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@Furman
11%
89%
3
35
✓
Furman −19.1
–
–
Final
Temple@#4Georgia
12%
88%
3
49
✓
UGA −18.6
–
–
Final
Harvard@Brown
43%
57%
41
7
✗
Brown −2.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
25%
75%
21
57
✓
HAW −10.5
–
–
Final
Columbia@Holy Cross
1.6%
98%
7
14
✓
Holy Cross −34.0
–
–
Final
#22Houston@TCU
73%
27%
20
16
✓
HOU −10.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
61%
39%
7
24
✗
IOWA −4.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas StateUpset
77%
23%
7
10
✗
ISU −12.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@LSU
37%
63%
27
27
✗
LSU −4.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
53%
47%
17
17
✓
UL −1.8
–
–
Final
Lamar@McNeese
8.5%
92%
20
20
✗
McNeese −21.5
–
–
Final
#1Penn State@#15Miami (FL)
71%
29%
14
17
✗
PSU −9.3
–
–
Final
#12Michigan@Minnesota
71%
29%
34
13
✓
MICH −9.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan State
29%
71%
3
26
✓
MSU −8.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@#3Nebraska
2.8%
97%
15
31
✓
NEB −30.4
–
–
Final
#5North Carolina@Maryland
71%
29%
17
10
✓
UNC −9.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Notre Dame
30%
70%
0
38
✓
ND −7.8
–
–
Final
#21Ohio State@Purdue
48%
52%
45
33
✗
PUR −0.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@#9Oklahoma
5.9%
94%
0
49
✓
OU −24.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#13MissouriUpset
15%
85%
16
12
✗
MIZ −16.0
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
43%
57%
16
17
✓
Pacific −2.4
–
–
Final
#2Pittsburgh@Boston College
93%
7.1%
29
24
✓
PITT −23.9
–
–
Final
Princeton@Pennsylvania
64%
36%
38
30
✓
Princeton −6.4
–
–
Final
NC State@#24South Carolina
19%
80%
12
20
✓
SC −13.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@#8USC
22%
78%
17
41
✓
USC −11.7
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Indiana State
38%
62%
17
3
✗
Indiana State −4.4
–
–
Final
#10SMU@Texas A&M
62%
38%
27
7
✓
SMU −5.4
–
–
Final
#23Southern Miss@North Texas
84%
16%
22
0
✓
USM −16.2
–
–
Final
Colgate@Syracuse
9.2%
91%
24
47
✓
SYR −20.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#19Texas
11%
89%
9
26
✓
TEX −19.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
45%
55%
10
17
✓
TOL −1.4
–
–
Final
Drake@Tulsa
17%
84%
6
59
✓
TLSA −15.1
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@Oregon
80%
20%
28
11
✓
UCLA −13.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
25%
75%
14
17
✓
UTAH −10.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
23%
77%
0
20
✓
USU −11.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Vanderbilt
44%
56%
0
26
✓
VAN −1.8
–
–
Final
VMI@Virginia
20%
80%
10
13
✓
UVA −13.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Kentucky
57%
43%
29
3
✓
VT −3.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington
24%
76%
31
42
✓
WASH −10.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#20West Virginia
7.6%
92%
3
20
✓
WVU −22.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
65%
35%
23
12
✓
WMU −6.7
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Wichita State
19%
81%
7
38
✓
Wichita State −13.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Wisconsin
5.0%
95%
0
52
✓
WIS −26.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
5.3%
95%
21
55
✓
WYO −25.5
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Yale
19%
81%
3
24
✓
Yale −13.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Chattanooga at East Tennessee State Chattanooga −9.4 71%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Presbyterian at The Citadel The Citadel −11.9 78%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Bucknell at Cornell Bucknell −12.7 78%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −29.5 97%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Western Illinois at New Mexico State New Mexico State −21.0 91%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD James Madison at William & Mary William & Mary −9.0 72%