The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 97

Wilder than 97% of weeks in the archive.

23 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockPacific over South Carolina2.0% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upMarshall over Appalachian State5.6% chance · won 17-10
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Boise State13% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 58 games

Final
Baylor@#18Arkansas
24%
76%
39
41
✓
ARK −10.6
–
–
Final
Lamar@Arkansas State
17%
83%
9
16
✓
ARST −14.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Auburn
12%
88%
0
20
✓
AUB −18.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
57%
43%
14
10
✓
BGSU −3.4
–
–
Final
#16BYU@Colorado State
95%
5.2%
63
14
✓
BYU −26.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
41%
59%
7
38
✓
CIN −3.0
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@The Citadel
47%
53%
28
28
✗
The Citadel −0.5
–
–
Final
#11Clemson@#5North Carolina
32%
68%
10
8
✗
UNC −6.8
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Columbia
89%
11%
21
7
✓
Dartmouth −20.2
–
–
Final
Drake@Southern Illinois
30%
70%
22
17
✗
Southern Illinois −7.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
53%
47%
31
10
✓
DUKE −1.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@Fresno State
64%
36%
26
42
✗
UNLV −6.4
–
–
Final
#21Florida@#2Georgia
17%
83%
21
26
✓
UGA −14.7
–
–
Final
Harvard@William & Mary
33%
67%
23
14
✗
William & Mary −6.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
96%
3.6%
35
7
✓
HAW −29.2
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@ArmyUpset
24%
76%
28
13
✗
ARMY −10.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
42%
58%
7
33
✓
IOWA −2.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
28%
72%
24
11
✗
ISU −8.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
4.7%
95%
7
13
✓
KENT −26.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
39%
61%
17
10
✗
VAN −4.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@LouisvilleUpset
24%
76%
40
7
✗
LOU −10.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Appalachian StateUpset
5.6%
94%
17
10
✗
APP −25.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@McNeese
15%
85%
20
27
✓
McNeese −16.0
–
–
Final
#13Miami (FL)@#15Florida State
44%
56%
27
19
✗
FSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
36%
64%
7
3
✗
CMU −5.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@#12Michigan
16%
84%
21
70
✓
MICH −15.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Northwestern
90%
9.5%
61
14
✓
MSU −21.3
–
–
Final
#17Ohio State@MinnesotaUpset
72%
28%
31
35
✗
OSU −9.9
–
–
Final
#19Missouri@Colorado
84%
16%
30
14
✓
MIZ −16.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Navy
39%
61%
23
35
✓
NAVY −3.9
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@Oklahoma State
83%
17%
54
7
✓
NEB −15.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northern Illinois
46%
54%
14
38
✓
NIU −1.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#22Notre Dame
7.0%
93%
3
35
✓
ND −23.2
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma@Kansas State
92%
7.9%
28
21
✓
OU −23.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@South CarolinaUpset
2.0%
98%
23
21
✗
SC −32.6
–
–
Final
#1Penn State@NC State
90%
10%
22
15
✓
PSU −20.8
–
–
Final
#3Pittsburgh@Rutgers
92%
7.6%
47
3
✓
PITT −23.3
–
–
Final
Richmond@VMI
47%
53%
45
14
✗
VMI −0.9
–
–
Final
#6USC@California
80%
20%
21
3
✓
USC −14.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#9SMU
4.1%
96%
12
33
✓
SMU −27.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#24Southern Miss
39%
61%
6
7
✓
USM −4.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
84%
16%
63
9
✓
STAN −16.3
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Tennessee
9.9%
90%
21
24
✓
TENN −20.2
–
–
Final
#25Houston@#20Texas
37%
63%
14
14
✗
TEX −4.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
33%
67%
39
39
✗
TCU −6.6
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@Louisiana
27%
73%
23
7
✗
UL −9.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
34%
66%
28
14
✗
WMU −6.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Tulane
57%
43%
7
14
✗
MD −3.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Tulsa
4.9%
95%
0
31
✓
TLSA −26.2
–
–
Final
Washington@#14UCLA
28%
72%
0
31
✓
UCLA −9.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah
18%
82%
7
7
✗
UTAH −13.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Long Beach State
67%
33%
28
2
✓
USU −7.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@Washington State
18%
82%
7
39
✓
WSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Indiana State@West Texas
38%
62%
14
17
✓
West Texas −4.2
–
–
Final
Temple@#23West Virginia
23%
77%
19
24
✓
WVU −11.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Indiana
68%
32%
28
7
✓
WIS −7.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
59%
41%
24
13
✓
WYO −4.3
–
–
Final
Yale@Cornell
88%
12%
23
17
✓
Yale −18.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD UMass at Boston College Boston College −12.4 79%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Rhode Island at Brown Rhode Island −4.8 61%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Boise State at Cal State Fullerton Boise State −18.4 87%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Bucknell at Colgate Colgate −14.7 83%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Delaware at Pennsylvania Delaware −49.8 >99%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD East Carolina at East Tennessee State East Carolina −14.1 80%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Furman at Davidson Furman −22.4 92%
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD Maine at Princeton Maine −3.0 56%