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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 73 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 16.8 expected

  • Biggest shockVMI over Army6.0% chance · won 14-7
  • Runner-upWest Texas over UNLV6.5% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upIndiana State over New Mexico State16% chance · won 41-6

Upsets

Fri, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginia@Rutgers
25%
75%
0
3
✓
RUTG −9.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 58 games

Final
#9Alabama@Kentucky
67%
33%
19
10
✓
ALA −7.2
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Appalachian State
22%
78%
14
31
✓
APP −11.5
–
–
Final
Wichita State@#13Arizona State
1.4%
99%
21
33
✓
ASU −33.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Arkansas
11%
89%
7
38
✓
ARK −18.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@Louisiana Tech
74%
26%
28
21
✓
BAY −10.6
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Boston College
42%
58%
12
13
✓
BC −2.5
–
–
Final
#4BYU@UTEP
98%
2.0%
65
8
✓
BYU −32.6
–
–
Final
California@Arizona
42%
58%
14
13
✗
ARIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
28%
72%
10
17
✓
CMU −8.7
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@The Citadel
12%
88%
3
12
✓
The Citadel −17.4
–
–
Final
#7Georgia@ClemsonUpset
65%
35%
3
13
✗
UGA −6.3
–
–
Final
Princeton@Dartmouth
33%
67%
13
32
✓
Dartmouth −6.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#20Florida
24%
76%
6
27
✓
FLA −10.3
–
–
Final
Harvard@Columbia
76%
24%
23
6
✓
Harvard −11.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Hawaii
6.9%
93%
12
38
✓
HAW −22.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Illinois
36%
64%
14
17
✓
ILL −5.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Illinois State
61%
39%
7
28
✗
EMU −5.0
–
–
Final
Indiana State@New Mexico StateUpset
16%
84%
41
6
✗
NMSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
45%
55%
12
23
✓
ISU −1.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@LSU
16%
84%
24
27
✓
LSU −15.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
39%
61%
17
20
✓
ULM −3.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Louisville
14%
86%
13
35
✓
LOU −16.3
–
–
Final
#25Houston@#17Miami (FL)
32%
68%
7
12
✓
MIA −6.9
–
–
Final
#15Notre Dame@#18Michigan
44%
56%
7
25
✓
MICH −1.9
–
–
Final
#21Purdue@MinnesotaUpset
58%
42%
13
16
✗
PUR −3.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
65%
35%
7
3
✓
MISS −6.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Mississippi State
14%
86%
9
29
✓
MSST −16.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#19Missouri
13%
87%
10
42
✓
MIZ −16.9
–
–
Final
#10Florida State@#5Nebraska
33%
67%
14
34
✓
NEB −6.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#3North Carolina
11%
89%
7
49
✓
UNC −18.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@NC State
23%
77%
10
31
✓
NCSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
23%
77%
21
23
✓
OHIO −10.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#11Ohio State
9.2%
91%
13
27
✓
OSU −20.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
41%
59%
21
23
✓
OKST −3.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@Oregon
5.7%
94%
0
34
✓
ORE −24.1
–
–
Final
Cornell@Pennsylvania
71%
29%
22
29
✗
Cornell −9.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#1Pittsburgh
1.0%
99%
7
38
✓
PITT −36.1
–
–
Final
Richmond@Arkansas StateUpset
18%
82%
24
20
✗
ARST −13.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@StanfordUpset
20%
80%
28
6
✗
STAN −12.5
–
–
Final
Duke@#22South Carolina
16%
84%
3
17
✓
SC −15.1
–
–
Final
#2USC@Indiana
77%
23%
21
0
✓
USC −11.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@#23Southern Miss
24%
76%
3
21
✓
USM −10.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Tennessee
24%
76%
0
42
✓
TENN −10.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@#16Texas
10%
90%
10
23
✓
TEX −19.3
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@TCU
9.6%
90%
16
38
✓
TCU −19.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
37%
63%
21
28
✓
TTU −4.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
53%
47%
0
40
✗
BALL −1.6
–
–
Final
#12UCLA@Wisconsin
66%
34%
31
13
✓
UCLA −6.7
–
–
Final
VMI@ArmyUpset
6.0%
94%
14
7
✗
ARMY −23.8
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Virginia Tech
1.8%
98%
3
47
✓
VT −32.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@AuburnUpset
25%
75%
24
21
✗
AUB −9.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#24Washington
15%
85%
3
20
✓
WASH −15.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Colorado
45%
55%
14
10
✗
COLO −1.3
–
–
Final
West Texas@UNLVUpset
6.5%
94%
21
17
✗
UNLV −23.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
43%
57%
17
13
✗
MD −2.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Western Michigan
9.1%
91%
3
14
✓
WMU −20.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
58%
42%
17
10
✓
WYO −3.5
–
–
Final
Brown@Yale
27%
73%
7
28
✓
Yale −9.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Lehigh at Colgate Colgate −2.8 59%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Temple at Delaware Delaware −4.9 64%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Western Illinois at Drake Drake −24.3 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD East Tennessee State at Furman Furman −18.6 89%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Akron at Kent State Kent State −5.1 64%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Sam Houston at Lamar Sam Houston −0.3 49%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Holy Cross at UMass UMass −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD McNeese at Nicholls McNeese −14.0 81%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Fresno State at Montana State Fresno State −10.1 73%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Navy Navy −24.2 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Grambling at #14 SMU SMU −39.0 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Tennessee State at Southern Illinois Tennessee State −9.9 73%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Portland State at Utah Utah −23.3 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Weber State at Utah State Utah State −27.8 96%