The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Illinois over Tulsa4.4% chance · won 36-34
  • Runner-upEast Tennessee State over Marshall13% chance · won 14-0
  • Runner-upDrake over Kansas State17% chance · won 18-17

Upsets

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 56 games

Final
#9Alabama@Vanderbilt
84%
16%
28
7
✓
ALA −16.2
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Arizona
9.2%
91%
16
37
✓
ARIZ −22.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
41%
59%
27
13
✗
MISS −3.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Central Michigan
28%
72%
26
23
✗
CMU −9.6
–
–
Final
Brown@Army
9.7%
90%
17
23
✓
ARMY −21.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#25Baylor
20%
80%
15
28
✓
BAY −14.2
–
–
Final
#4BYU@Colorado
86%
14%
41
20
✓
BYU −17.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Cincinnati
75%
25%
0
10
✗
RUTG −11.0
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@The Citadel
72%
28%
20
34
✗
APP −9.6
–
–
Final
Colgate@Cornell
70%
30%
34
10
✓
Colgate −8.7
–
–
Final
Drake@Kansas StateUpset
17%
83%
18
17
✗
KSU −15.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
40%
60%
29
24
✗
UVA −4.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@East Carolina
54%
46%
24
28
✗
TOL −1.4
–
–
Final
Furman@Western Carolina
68%
32%
31
27
✓
Furman −7.8
–
–
Final
#22South Carolina@#10Georgia
29%
71%
0
24
✓
UGA −9.4
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Harvard
47%
53%
33
19
✗
Harvard −1.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Houston
13%
87%
7
35
✓
HOU −18.9
–
–
Final
#6UCLA@IowaUpset
72%
28%
7
20
✗
UCLA −9.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Iowa State
19%
82%
19
28
✓
ISU −15.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Kansas
34%
66%
16
21
✓
KU −7.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana
50%
50%
11
34
✗
UNT −0.1
–
–
Final
Rice@LSU
29%
71%
14
28
✓
LSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
35%
65%
34
9
✗
NCSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@Georgia Tech
29%
71%
28
15
✗
GT −9.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
83%
17%
18
12
✓
M-OH −15.5
–
–
Final
Navy@#12Michigan
19%
81%
16
21
✓
MICH −14.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Michigan State
32%
68%
7
10
✓
MSU −8.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Minnesota
20%
80%
12
42
✓
MINN −14.2
–
–
Final
#16Florida@#23Mississippi State
45%
55%
7
28
✓
MSST −2.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@#15Missouri
24%
76%
3
34
✓
MIZ −11.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@UNLV
15%
85%
31
32
✓
UNLV −17.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
33%
67%
10
27
✓
UNM −7.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@#2North Carolina
9.3%
91%
14
56
✓
UNC −22.0
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Northern Illinois
13%
87%
7
40
✓
NIU −18.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
29%
71%
27
30
✓
OHIO −9.3
–
–
Final
#11Ohio State@Stanford
72%
28%
24
19
✓
OSU −9.6
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@#3Nebraska
33%
67%
30
24
✗
NEB −7.2
–
–
Final
#21Notre Dame@PurdueUpset
46%
54%
14
15
✓
PUR −1.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Oklahoma State
36%
64%
23
16
✗
OKST −5.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
44%
56%
27
24
✗
CAL −2.7
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma@#1USC
30%
70%
24
28
✓
USC −8.6
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@TulsaUpset
4.4%
96%
36
34
✗
TLSA −28.3
–
–
Final
#14SMU@TCU
73%
27%
20
9
✓
SMU −10.2
–
–
Final
#20Southern Miss@Richmond
86%
14%
17
10
✓
USM −17.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Syracuse
38%
62%
7
21
✓
SYR −5.1
–
–
Final
Auburn@Tennessee
39%
61%
7
10
✓
TENN −4.8
–
–
Final
#18Miami (FL)@#19Texas
42%
58%
7
14
✓
TEX −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas A&M
20%
80%
7
43
✓
TA&M −14.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Northwestern
65%
35%
42
0
✓
UTAH −6.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia Tech
32%
68%
14
30
✓
VT −8.0
–
–
Final
#24Washington@Oregon
50%
50%
17
3
✗
ORE −0.3
–
–
Final
#17Arizona State@Washington StateUpset
64%
36%
21
24
✗
ASU −5.9
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@West Texas
18%
82%
31
35
✓
West Texas −15.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@West Virginia
8.5%
92%
3
49
✓
WVU −22.8
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Wichita State
36%
64%
14
14
✗
Wichita State −6.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Wisconsin
36%
64%
10
21
✓
WIS −6.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Jacksonville State at Chattanooga Chattanooga −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Delaware at Princeton Delaware −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD East Tennessee State at Marshall Marshall −18.5 87%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Idaho at Hawaii Hawaii −35.8 98%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Lafayette at Columbia Lafayette −8.9 71%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Pennsylvania at Lehigh Lehigh −21.8 90%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Dartmouth at UMass UMass −20.2 89%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Texas State at Lamar Lamar −3.6 58%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD UConn at Yale Yale −0.6 51%