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2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1981

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 78

Wilder than 78% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over Alabama6.0% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upLong Beach State over Northern Illinois15% chance · won 17-7
  • Runner-upTexas-Arlington over New Mexico State21% chance · won 26-13

Upsets

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 51 games

Final
Utah@#23Arizona State
28%
72%
10
52
✓
ASU −8.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas
27%
73%
10
14
✓
ARK −9.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
30%
70%
35
13
✗
ULM −7.8
–
–
Final
McNeese@Ball State
23%
77%
21
24
✓
BALL −11.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Baylor
30%
70%
0
38
✓
BAY −7.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@#6BYU
6.2%
94%
21
45
✓
BYU −23.5
–
–
Final
Clemson@Tulane
40%
60%
13
5
✗
TULN −3.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Colorado
61%
39%
27
45
✗
TTU −4.8
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Drake
23%
77%
14
17
✓
Drake −10.9
–
–
Final
Furman@#20Florida
8.0%
92%
7
35
✓
FLA −21.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@#3Florida State
3.6%
96%
5
10
✓
FSU −27.7
–
–
Final
California@#4Georgia
7.8%
92%
13
27
✓
UGA −21.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#1AlabamaUpset
6.0%
94%
24
21
✗
ALA −23.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan State
32%
68%
27
17
✗
MSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
68%
32%
21
20
✓
IU −7.6
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@IowaUpset
77%
23%
7
10
✗
NEB −11.8
–
–
Final
West Texas@Iowa State
6.2%
94%
13
17
✓
ISU −23.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Kansas
41%
59%
10
19
✓
KU −2.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Northern IllinoisUpset
15%
85%
17
7
✗
NIU −15.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Louisville
35%
65%
6
31
✓
LOU −5.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@William & Mary
94%
5.6%
33
14
✓
M-OH −25.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Minnesota
35%
65%
17
19
✓
MINN −5.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#8South CarolinaUpset
22%
78%
20
13
✗
SC −11.2
–
–
Final
Army@#18Missouri
14%
86%
10
24
✓
MIZ −16.2
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Navy
11%
89%
7
17
✓
NAVY −18.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
19%
81%
42
49
✓
UNLV −13.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#16North Carolina
18%
82%
0
56
✓
UNC −13.9
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
40%
60%
28
23
✗
WAKE −3.4
–
–
Final
LSU@#17Notre Dame
28%
72%
9
27
✓
ND −8.7
–
–
Final
Duke@#13Ohio State
16%
84%
13
34
✓
OSU −15.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#7Oklahoma
17%
83%
20
37
✓
OU −14.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon State
50%
50%
28
31
✗
FRES −0.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#10Penn State
3.8%
96%
0
52
✓
PSU −27.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@#25Purdue
36%
64%
19
27
✓
PUR −4.9
–
–
Final
Colgate@Rutgers
5.2%
95%
5
13
✓
RUTG −24.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
36%
64%
30
14
✗
CSU −5.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#9USC
20%
80%
7
43
✓
USC −12.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@#12SMU
13%
87%
7
34
✓
SMU −16.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Temple
44%
56%
19
31
✓
TEM −1.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
27%
73%
3
31
✓
TEX −8.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Texas-ArlingtonUpset
79%
21%
13
26
✗
NMSU −13.1
–
–
Final
#15UCLA@Arizona
63%
37%
35
18
✓
UCLA −5.7
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Utah State
5.8%
94%
9
14
✓
USU −24.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Vanderbilt
68%
32%
17
23
✗
MD −7.5
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@VMI
28%
72%
14
21
✓
VMI −8.5
–
–
Final
Richmond@Virginia Tech
7.3%
93%
12
28
✓
VT −22.2
–
–
Final
Pacific@#21Washington
2.7%
97%
14
34
✓
WASH −29.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Virginia
47%
53%
32
18
✗
UVA −0.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
58%
42%
20
17
✓
WMU −3.7
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Southern Illinois
55%
45%
13
7
✓
Wichita State −2.6
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@WisconsinUpset
66%
34%
14
21
✗
MICH −6.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Akron at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −0.1 52%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD James Madison at Appalachian State Appalachian State −18.2 89%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Chattanooga Chattanooga −5.3 65%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Boston University at Holy Cross Holy Cross −4.6 63%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD South Dakota at Kansas State Kansas State −26.6 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD East Tennessee State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −15.2 84%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Morehead State at Marshall Marshall −22.9 93%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Santa Clara at San Jose State San Jose State −25.5 95%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD SE Louisiana at Louisiana Louisiana −10.5 76%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Texas A&M-Kingsville at UTEP UTEP −10.4 76%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Montana State at Washington State Washington State −20.9 92%