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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 27 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 56

Wilder than 56% of weeks in the archive.

5 upsets against 7.2 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio over Central Michigan17% chance · won 17-17
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Louisiana20% chance · won 21-10
  • Runner-upMemphis over USC22% chance · won 24-10

Upsets

Wed, Aug 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#15Georgia Tech@#18Penn State
42%
58%
22
34
✓
PSU −2.6
–
–

Thu, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#19BYU@#3Florida State
31%
68%
28
44
✓
FSU −6.9
–
–

Sat, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 15 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
35%
65%
6
17
✓
BGSU −5.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
17%
83%
17
17
✗
CMU −14.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Colorado State
25%
75%
24
38
✓
CSU −10.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
52%
48%
32
17
✓
HAW −1.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#12Houston
26%
74%
3
73
✓
HOU −9.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Illinois
32%
68%
31
38
✓
ILL −6.8
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Arkansas
90%
9.5%
31
3
✓
MIA −20.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
48%
52%
7
15
✓
M-OH −0.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
49%
51%
22
3
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Mississippi State
2.9%
97%
3
47
✓
MSST −29.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@West Virginia
43%
57%
34
3
✗
WVU −2.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
49%
51%
13
20
✓
BC −0.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
45%
55%
19
35
✓
UTEP −1.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
42%
58%
7
12
✓
UTAH −2.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
24%
76%
10
13
✓
WMU −10.7
–
–

Mon, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@#20USCUpset
22%
78%
24
10
✗
USC −11.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Weber State at Air Force Air Force −32.4 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Georgia Southern at Auburn Auburn −20.1 91%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Western Carolina at Georgia Georgia −33.4 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana Louisiana −12.8 80%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −28.5 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Sacramento State at Pacific Sacramento State −3.2 57%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Delta State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −28.6 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Missouri State at Tulsa Tulsa −9.2 74%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD James Madison at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −12.1 79%