The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 82

Wilder than 82% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockCincinnati over Louisville5.8% chance · won 30-7
  • Runner-upLong Beach State over UNLV15% chance · won 31-19
  • Runner-upGeorgia over Clemson22% chance · won 27-12

Upsets

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah State@BYU
9.1%
91%
12
38
✓
BYU −22.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Wyoming@Air Force
38%
62%
28
51
✓
AF −5.4
–
–
Final
Utah@#25Arizona State
15%
85%
15
21
✓
ASU −17.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas@TCUUpset
23%
77%
22
21
✗
TCU −12.4
–
–
Final
#16Baylor@#23Houston
50%
50%
38
21
✗
HOU −0.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling Green
51%
49%
10
17
✗
CMU −0.4
–
–
Final
#24California@UCLA
42%
58%
27
24
✗
UCLA −3.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@LouisvilleUpset
5.8%
94%
30
7
✗
LOU −26.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
44%
56%
23
18
✗
UTEP −2.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Duke
19%
81%
13
17
✓
DUKE −14.5
–
–
Final
Akron@East Carolina
7.2%
93%
20
56
✓
ECU −24.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
29%
71%
21
20
✗
KENT −9.1
–
–
Final
#4Florida@LSU
93%
6.6%
16
0
✓
FLA −24.9
–
–
Final
#9Syracuse@#3Florida State
24%
76%
14
46
✓
FSU −11.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Fresno State
5.2%
95%
17
94
✓
FRES −27.1
–
–
Final
#10Clemson@GeorgiaUpset
78%
22%
12
27
✗
CLEM −12.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#19Illinois
13%
87%
3
24
✓
ILL −18.9
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Indiana
26%
74%
0
31
✓
IU −10.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@UNLVUpset
15%
85%
31
19
✗
UNLV −17.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Northern Illinois
64%
36%
37
3
✓
LT −5.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#1Miami (FL)
0.3%
>99%
3
40
✓
MIA −45.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Louisiana
55%
45%
27
14
✓
M-OH −1.9
–
–
Final
#12Michigan@#5Iowa
32%
68%
43
24
✗
IOWA −8.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
59%
41%
35
14
✓
MISS −3.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Missouri
42%
58%
21
31
✓
MIZ −3.4
–
–
Final
#18Georgia Tech@#17NC State
37%
63%
21
28
✓
NCSU −5.8
–
–
Final
#6Notre Dame@Stanford
76%
24%
42
26
✓
ND −11.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#21Ohio State
7.9%
92%
16
31
✓
OSU −23.5
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma@Iowa State
82%
18%
29
8
✓
OU −14.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Oregon
2.8%
97%
6
29
✓
ORE −31.7
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
25%
75%
28
56
✓
Pacific −11.3
–
–
Final
#14Penn State@Temple
84%
16%
24
7
✓
PSU −16.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@#20Pittsburgh
14%
86%
20
24
✓
PITT −18.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
49%
51%
17
14
✗
NU −0.4
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
29%
71%
12
14
✓
RUTG −9.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
39%
61%
47
21
✗
HAW −4.8
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
31%
69%
31
17
✗
TULN −8.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@AuburnUpset
24%
76%
10
9
✗
AUB −11.9
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
31%
68%
7
28
✓
TEX −8.1
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@Texas Tech
81%
19%
37
14
✓
TA&M −14.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
14%
86%
13
17
✓
TOL −18.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Virginia
31%
69%
19
31
✓
UVA −8.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@West Virginia
52%
48%
20
14
✓
VT −0.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#2Washington
2.6%
97%
0
54
✓
WASH −32.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
14%
86%
7
55
✓
WSU −17.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
38%
62%
25
16
✗
BALL −5.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Chattanooga at #22 Alabama Alabama −39.9 99%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −0.1 50%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD UCF at Arkansas State Arkansas State −3.0 57%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD William & Mary at North Carolina North Carolina −35.9 98%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD East Tennessee State at South Carolina South Carolina −29.4 96%