The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 53

Wilder than 53% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern over Illinois8.9% chance · won 17-11
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Ole Miss12% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Louisiana Tech20% chance · won 14-14

Upsets

Fri, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#8Michigan@Minnesota
88%
12%
52
6
✓
MICH −19.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
UTEP@Air Force
15%
85%
13
20
✓
AF −16.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Akron
33%
67%
7
17
✓
AKR −6.5
–
–
Final
TCU@#20Baylor
24%
76%
9
26
✓
BAY −11.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Army
56%
44%
28
17
✓
BC −2.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
49%
51%
23
10
✗
WMU −0.1
–
–
Final
BYU@New Mexico
94%
5.7%
41
23
✓
BYU −25.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#11California
17%
83%
20
41
✓
CAL −15.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
29%
71%
3
10
✓
CMU −8.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@CincinnatiUpset
77%
23%
7
17
✗
USM −12.0
–
–
Final
#23NC State@#15Clemson
33%
67%
19
29
✓
CLEM −6.4
–
–
Final
#6Colorado@Kansas State
90%
9.5%
10
0
✓
COLO −21.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Maryland
40%
60%
17
13
✗
MD −3.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@East Carolina
34%
66%
23
24
✓
ECU −6.0
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@LSU
93%
7.2%
27
16
✓
FSU −23.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Fresno State
3.2%
97%
22
48
✓
FRES −29.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Georgia
17%
84%
27
49
✓
UGA −15.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#22Georgia Tech
22%
78%
14
35
✓
GT −11.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@Wisconsin
76%
24%
28
20
✓
IU −11.9
–
–
Final
#19Iowa@Purdue
71%
29%
31
21
✓
IOWA −9.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Long Beach State
70%
30%
6
7
✗
USU −8.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
20%
80%
14
14
✗
LT −13.1
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Arizona
97%
3.2%
36
9
✓
MIA −30.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Auburn
40%
60%
24
17
✗
AUB −3.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@#9Nebraska
9.9%
90%
6
63
✓
NEB −20.2
–
–
Final
#16Illinois@NorthwesternUpset
91%
8.9%
11
17
✗
ILL −21.9
–
–
Final
USC@#4Notre Dame
11%
89%
20
24
✓
ND −19.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
39%
61%
40
45
✓
OHIO −3.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#21Ohio State
9.0%
91%
17
27
✓
OSU −21.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@#12Oklahoma
18%
82%
3
41
✓
OU −14.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
50%
50%
6
6
✓
ISU −0.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Pacific
36%
64%
20
27
✓
Pacific −5.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#10Penn State
10%
90%
6
51
✓
PSU −19.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
52%
48%
24
21
✓
SDSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
3.7%
96%
10
40
✓
STAN −28.4
–
–
Final
#17Syracuse@Rutgers
84%
16%
21
7
✓
SYR −16.5
–
–
Final
#24Texas@SMU
91%
9.3%
34
0
✓
TEX −21.5
–
–
Final
Houston@#7Texas A&M
12%
88%
18
27
✓
TA&M −18.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas Tech
48%
52%
20
40
✓
TTU −0.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
54%
46%
7
24
✗
M-OH −2.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Memphis
35%
65%
33
28
✗
MEM −5.6
–
–
Final
#14UCLA@Arizona State
60%
40%
21
16
✓
UCLA −4.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole MissUpset
12%
88%
30
27
✗
MISS −18.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
3.4%
97%
7
48
✓
UVA −29.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@#25Virginia Tech
6.6%
93%
13
41
✓
VT −23.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@#2Washington
2.5%
98%
7
29
✓
WASH −31.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
39%
61%
28
35
✓
WYO −4.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 26 · TBD Delaware at Navy Delaware −10.3 73%
Sat, Oct 26 · TBD Missouri State at Arkansas State Missouri State −2.0 54%