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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 52

Wilder than 52% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.0 expected

  • Biggest shockWilliam & Mary over Navy13% chance · won 26-21
  • Runner-upTulsa over Texas A&M15% chance · won 35-34
  • Runner-upUtah over Oregon19% chance · won 24-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginia@#19Georgia Tech
27%
73%
21
24
✓
GT −10.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
47%
53%
20
21
✓
AF −1.5
–
–
Final
Georgia@#25Alabama
25%
75%
0
10
✓
ALA −11.3
–
–
Final
Arizona State@USC
40%
60%
32
25
✗
USC −4.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas
25%
75%
7
9
✓
ARK −11.4
–
–
Final
Auburn@#22TexasUpset
34%
66%
14
10
✗
TEX −7.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
9.3%
91%
27
28
✓
BALL −22.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Baylor
21%
79%
21
47
✓
BAY −13.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Bowling Green
13%
87%
16
20
✓
BGSU −18.5
–
–
Final
#23California@Arizona
64%
36%
23
21
✓
CAL −5.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
5.6%
94%
29
31
✓
CMU −26.4
–
–
Final
Temple@#12Clemson
4.7%
95%
7
37
✓
CLEM −27.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#17Colorado
17%
83%
0
58
✓
COLO −15.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon State
88%
12%
24
20
✓
FRES −19.4
–
–
Final
Pacific@Hawaii
0.9%
99%
21
30
✓
HAW −39.5
–
–
Final
#11Houston@IllinoisUpset
65%
35%
10
51
✗
HOU −6.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
27%
73%
10
13
✓
IU −10.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Kansas
6.8%
93%
14
54
✓
KU −24.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kansas State
39%
61%
17
34
✓
KSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@LSU
27%
73%
14
16
✓
LSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Eastern Michigan
68%
32%
17
14
✓
LT −7.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
7.6%
92%
21
31
✓
MEM −23.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ole Miss
6.6%
93%
14
38
✓
MISS −25.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
44%
56%
23
22
✗
UNM −2.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Army
70%
30%
20
12
✓
UNC −8.6
–
–
Final
#21NC State@Wake Forest
81%
19%
30
3
✓
NCSU −14.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#13Notre Dame
14%
86%
10
49
✓
ND −18.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#20Ohio State
13%
87%
19
33
✓
OSU −18.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@#8Oklahoma
3.3%
97%
21
55
✓
OU −30.5
–
–
Final
#24BYU@#14Penn State
27%
73%
7
33
✓
PSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
75%
25%
28
19
✓
RICE −11.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Rutgers
29%
71%
18
22
✓
RUTG −9.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Long Beach State
98%
2.4%
32
20
✓
SJSU −32.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@South Carolina
51%
49%
21
28
✗
VT −0.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Southern Miss
28%
72%
7
39
✓
USM −9.6
–
–
Final
#3Florida@#15Syracuse
61%
39%
21
38
✗
FLA −4.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#10Tennessee
21%
79%
24
26
✓
TENN −13.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Oklahoma State
69%
31%
24
21
✓
TCU −8.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
40%
60%
23
13
✗
WMU −4.4
–
–
Final
#9Texas A&M@TulsaUpset
85%
15%
34
35
✗
TA&M −17.2
–
–
Final
#16Oregon@UtahUpset
81%
19%
17
24
✗
ORE −14.3
–
–
Final
#2Washington@#5Nebraska
45%
55%
36
21
✗
NEB −2.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@MarylandUpset
24%
76%
37
7
✗
MD −12.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Wisconsin
54%
46%
6
7
✗
ISU −1.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Wyoming
44%
56%
17
22
✓
WYO −2.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Northridge −5.1 62%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Colgate at Duke Duke −51.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD East Carolina at UCF East Carolina −8.9 71%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Northwestern State at UTEP UTEP −20.3 89%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD William & Mary at Navy Navy −18.6 87%