The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 36

Wilder than 36% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Baylor12% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upThe Citadel over Army17% chance · won 20-14
  • Runner-upEast Carolina over Syracuse26% chance · won 23-20

Upsets

Sat, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Air Force@Navy
77%
23%
46
6
✓
AF −12.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@#20Alabama
4.3%
96%
0
62
✓
ALA −28.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
91%
8.6%
24
7
✓
ASU −22.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Arkansas
62%
38%
17
29
✗
HOU −4.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@Vanderbilt
85%
15%
24
22
✓
AUB −16.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
67%
33%
10
8
✓
BALL −7.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@Boston College
45%
55%
3
33
✓
BC −2.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
62%
38%
45
14
✓
BGSU −5.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@BYU
8.3%
92%
29
31
✓
BYU −23.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@#21California
30%
70%
7
45
✓
CAL −8.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kent State
46%
54%
38
19
✗
KENT −1.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#12Colorado
15%
85%
7
55
✓
COLO −17.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#14SyracuseUpset
26%
74%
23
20
✗
SYR −10.9
–
–
Final
#13Tennessee@#4Florida
29%
71%
18
35
✓
FLA −9.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#3Florida State
7.2%
93%
20
33
✓
FSU −24.3
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
1.1%
99%
14
42
✓
FRES −37.9
–
–
Final
Georgia@Ole Miss
26%
74%
37
17
✗
MISS −10.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@#19Georgia Tech
16%
84%
10
34
✓
GT −16.3
–
–
Final
#22Ohio State@#17Illinois
35%
65%
7
10
✓
ILL −6.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
13%
87%
6
44
✓
IU −18.5
–
–
Final
#15Iowa@Wisconsin
86%
14%
10
6
✓
IOWA −17.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
69%
31%
12
16
✗
KU −8.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@LSU
13%
87%
14
70
✓
LSU −18.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Louisiana Tech
53%
47%
12
12
✓
SC −1.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
46%
54%
12
17
✓
MEM −1.6
–
–
Final
#11Penn State@#1Miami (FL)
9.1%
91%
20
26
✓
MIA −22.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
31%
70%
10
10
✗
M-OH −8.6
–
–
Final
#6Michigan@Michigan State
93%
7.3%
45
28
✓
MICH −24.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
41%
59%
3
6
✓
MINN −4.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
19%
81%
6
31
✓
MSST −14.8
–
–
Final
#8Nebraska@Oklahoma State
90%
9.8%
49
15
✓
NEB −21.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Cal State Fullerton
76%
24%
25
3
✓
UNLV −11.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
6.6%
93%
10
24
✓
UNC −25.1
–
–
Final
#24Pittsburgh@#5Notre Dame
20%
80%
7
42
✓
ND −14.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#9BaylorUpset
12%
88%
20
17
✗
BAY −19.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
3.9%
96%
24
38
✓
SDSU −29.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico State
91%
9.4%
39
13
✓
SJSU −21.8
–
–
Final
USC@Washington State
59%
41%
34
27
✓
USC −3.7
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@#23Texas
63%
37%
7
10
✗
OU −5.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@SMU
52%
48%
38
14
✓
TTU −0.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana
61%
39%
34
20
✓
TLSA −4.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@UCLA
20%
80%
14
54
✓
UCLA −13.9
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
49%
51%
57
42
✗
WYO −0.5
–
–
Final
#18Clemson@#25Virginia
49%
51%
20
20
✗
UVA −0.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@#2Washington
1.1%
99%
0
48
✓
WASH −38.2
–
–
Final
Temple@West Virginia
22%
78%
9
10
✓
WVU −12.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
74%
26%
22
10
✓
WMU −10.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 12 · TBD Youngstown State at Akron Akron −4.6 61%
Sat, Oct 12 · TBD The Citadel at Army Army −15.9 83%
Sat, Oct 12 · TBD Cal Poly at Pacific Pacific −1.7 54%
Sat, Oct 12 · TBD Maine at Rutgers Rutgers −23.1 92%
Sat, Oct 12 · TBD Cornell at Stanford Stanford −28.0 95%