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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 45

Wilder than 45% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.2 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois State over Akron5.6% chance · won 25-3
  • Runner-upCentral Michigan over Michigan State16% chance · won 20-3
  • Runner-upBaylor over Colorado17% chance · won 16-14

Upsets

Thu, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#3Houston@#1Miami (FL)
8.4%
92%
10
40
✓
MIA −21.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
Air Force@Utah
45%
55%
24
21
✗
UTAH −1.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona
36%
64%
23
28
✓
ARIZ −5.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oklahoma State
50%
50%
30
3
✓
ASU −0.6
–
–
Final
#20Ole Miss@AuburnUpset
47%
53%
13
23
✓
AUB −0.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@#13ColoradoUpset
17%
83%
16
14
✗
COLO −14.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@California
23%
77%
18
42
✓
CAL −11.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan StateUpset
16%
84%
20
3
✗
MSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Duke
24%
76%
22
42
✓
DUKE −10.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@East Carolina
41%
59%
13
20
✓
ECU −3.1
–
–
Final
#14Alabama@#5Florida
24%
76%
0
35
✓
FLA −10.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#4Florida State
3.9%
96%
0
58
✓
FSU −27.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Washington State
68%
32%
34
30
✓
FRES −7.8
–
–
Final
#19Georgia Tech@Boston College
81%
19%
30
14
✓
GT −13.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
4.9%
95%
13
35
✓
HAW −25.4
–
–
Final
#9Iowa@Iowa State
80%
20%
29
10
✓
IOWA −13.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Kansas
23%
77%
17
23
✓
KU −10.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
12%
88%
3
29
✓
M-OH −17.8
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@#6Michigan
34%
66%
14
24
✓
MICH −5.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Minnesota
53%
47%
20
26
✗
SJSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Mississippi State
16%
84%
0
48
✓
MSST −14.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Missouri
58%
42%
19
23
✗
ILL −3.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#10Nebraska
6.6%
93%
14
71
✓
NEB −23.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@UNLV
46%
54%
9
23
✓
UNLV −1.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@North Carolina
5.2%
95%
16
51
✓
UNC −24.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@NC State
5.3%
95%
0
47
✓
NCSU −24.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Northern Illinois
14%
86%
21
22
✓
NIU −16.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@#15Ohio State
12%
88%
15
23
✓
OSU −17.8
–
–
Final
#17Oregon@Texas Tech
63%
37%
28
13
✓
ORE −5.5
–
–
Final
Temple@#16Pittsburgh
7.2%
93%
7
26
✓
PITT −22.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Northwestern
51%
49%
36
7
✓
RICE −0.8
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Diego State
0.3%
>99%
34
55
✓
SDSU −42.7
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@USCUpset
71%
29%
10
21
✗
PSU −9.1
–
–
Final
#18Syracuse@Maryland
49%
51%
31
17
✗
PK
–
–
Final
UCLA@#12Tennessee
15%
85%
16
30
✓
TENN −15.7
–
–
Final
LSU@#25Texas A&M
13%
87%
7
45
✓
TA&M −17.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@TCU
24%
76%
16
22
✓
TCU −10.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
47%
53%
22
21
✗
NMSU −0.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Vanderbilt
40%
60%
11
14
✓
VAN −3.4
–
–
Final
Navy@#22Virginia
3.2%
97%
10
17
✓
UVA −28.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@West Virginia
63%
37%
16
21
✗
SC −5.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Wyoming
29%
71%
15
28
✓
WYO −7.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Colgate at Army Army −30.8 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Long Beach State at Boise State Boise State −31.0 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Illinois State at Akron Akron −24.4 94%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Idaho State at Kansas State Kansas State −13.2 81%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Montana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −23.4 94%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Ohio Ohio −17.3 87%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD North Texas at #23 Oklahoma Oklahoma −18.6 89%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Western Carolina at Wake Forest Wake Forest −48.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Western Illinois at Wisconsin Wisconsin −29.7 97%