The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 27

Wilder than 27% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Rice20% chance · won 28-27
  • Runner-upStanford over Colorado22% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upRutgers over Michigan State23% chance · won 14-7

Upsets

Thu, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCLA@San Diego State
40%
60%
37
12
✗
SDSU −4.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
Alabama@Vanderbilt
79%
21%
48
17
✓
ALA −13.1
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Arizona
2.0%
98%
21
45
✓
ARIZ −34.1
–
–
Final
#19Baylor@SMU
85%
15%
45
7
✓
BAY −17.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Navy
56%
44%
22
19
✓
BGSU −2.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@BYU
25%
75%
7
21
✓
BYU −11.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
35%
65%
16
16
✗
CMU −6.3
–
–
Final
#20Georgia Tech@#10Clemson
25%
75%
7
9
✓
CLEM −11.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado State
62%
38%
16
28
✗
HAW −4.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@East Carolina
38%
62%
20
31
✓
ECU −4.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#6Florida
19%
81%
7
29
✓
FLA −14.7
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@#5Michigan
43%
57%
51
31
✗
MICH −3.0
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Georgia
0.6%
99%
14
27
✓
UGA −42.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Indiana
30%
70%
27
27
✗
IU −9.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#8Iowa
2.0%
98%
7
58
✓
IOWA −34.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@RiceUpset
19%
80%
28
27
✗
RICE −14.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kentucky
16%
84%
6
24
✓
UK −16.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Arkansas State
58%
42%
42
10
✓
LT −3.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisville
47%
53%
14
28
✓
LOU −1.2
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Tulsa
97%
2.8%
34
10
✓
MIA −31.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
74%
26%
22
9
✓
M-OH −10.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
17%
83%
17
24
✓
MISS −15.9
–
–
Final
#11Nebraska@#22Arizona State
53%
47%
18
9
✓
NEB −1.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
30%
70%
10
17
✓
UNM −8.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#16NC State
23%
77%
7
24
✓
NCSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Northwestern
41%
59%
14
41
✓
NU −3.9
–
–
Final
#7Notre Dame@Purdue
81%
19%
45
20
✓
ND −14.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#4Oklahoma
16%
84%
17
27
✓
OU −16.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@#13Penn State
4.0%
96%
21
28
✓
PSU −29.1
–
–
Final
#17Pittsburgh@Minnesota
75%
25%
14
13
✓
PITT −11.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan StateUpset
23%
77%
14
7
✗
MSU −12.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
64%
36%
23
7
✓
SJSU −5.6
–
–
Final
USC@#24OregonUpset
29%
71%
30
14
✗
ORE −9.2
–
–
Final
#9Colorado@StanfordUpset
78%
22%
21
28
✗
COLO −12.5
–
–
Final
#12Syracuse@Tulane
90%
10%
24
0
✓
SYR −20.8
–
–
Final
#25Auburn@#14Tennessee
27%
73%
21
30
✓
TENN −10.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#15Texas A&M
6.0%
94%
7
34
✓
TA&M −25.8
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
51%
49%
30
16
✓
TCU −0.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UTEP
54%
46%
28
28
✓
WYO −1.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
26%
74%
3
34
✓
UVA −10.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#2Washington
1.1%
99%
3
56
✓
WASH −37.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@UNLV
60%
40%
40
13
✓
WSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
28%
72%
9
35
✓
WMU −9.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Wisconsin
19%
81%
6
21
✓
WIS −14.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Northern Arizona at Akron Akron −10.4 73%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Harvard at Army Army −19.0 87%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Ball State at Indiana State Ball State −28.8 96%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Howard at Temple Temple −19.7 88%