The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 10.8 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Air Force11% chance · won 34-32
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Central Michigan15% chance · won 14-14
  • Runner-upUtah State over Fresno State18% chance · won 20-19

Upsets

Thu, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
BYU@Colorado State
73%
27%
40
17
✓
BYU −10.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Mississippi State@#13Alabama
24%
76%
7
13
✓
ALA −10.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
8.9%
91%
21
45
✓
ARIZ −21.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
15%
85%
6
10
✓
BALL −15.9
–
–
Final
#20Baylor@Arkansas
67%
33%
9
5
✓
BAY −7.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Boston College
60%
40%
12
38
✗
PITT −4.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
38%
62%
17
7
✗
M-OH −4.4
–
–
Final
#25USC@#12California
24%
76%
30
52
✓
CAL −10.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
15%
85%
14
14
✗
CMU −16.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#14Clemson
1.3%
99%
10
28
✓
CLEM −35.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
2.7%
97%
28
38
✓
ECU −30.7
–
–
Final
#6Florida@Auburn
77%
23%
31
10
✓
FLA −12.3
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Louisville
98%
2.5%
40
15
✓
FSU −31.8
–
–
Final
#18Georgia Tech@Duke
74%
26%
17
6
✓
GT −10.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Hawaii
47%
53%
26
52
✓
HAW −0.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Illinois
8.4%
92%
6
22
✓
ILL −21.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
12%
88%
8
34
✓
IU −18.1
–
–
Final
#19Iowa@#23Ohio State
44%
56%
16
9
✗
OSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
26%
74%
23
22
✗
MIZ −9.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
74%
26%
31
0
✓
KU −10.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kent StateUpset
79%
21%
13
14
✗
TOL −13.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kentucky
30%
70%
17
20
✓
UK −7.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Northern Illinois
64%
36%
13
12
✓
UL −6.1
–
–
Final
LSU@Ole Miss
29%
71%
25
22
✗
MISS −8.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@#5Michigan
4.5%
96%
0
42
✓
MICH −26.9
–
–
Final
#9Colorado@#8Nebraska
38%
62%
19
19
✗
NEB −4.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@New MexicoUpset
89%
11%
32
34
✗
AF −20.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Cal State Fullerton
72%
28%
35
12
✓
NMSU −9.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@North Carolina
25%
75%
0
24
✓
UNC −10.2
–
–
Final
NC State@South Carolina
49%
51%
38
21
✗
NCSU −0.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
27%
73%
16
13
✗
MSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Navy@#4Notre Dame
0.3%
>99%
0
38
✓
ND −43.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#11Oklahoma
5.1%
95%
7
28
✓
OU −25.8
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach State
47%
53%
51
24
✗
Long Beach State −0.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
19%
81%
22
24
✓
SDSU −13.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
5.1%
95%
12
55
✓
SJSU −25.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon
43%
57%
33
13
✗
ORE −2.5
–
–
Final
Temple@#16Syracuse
7.0%
93%
6
27
✓
SYR −23.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@#17Tennessee
14%
86%
24
52
✓
TENN −16.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#21Texas
15%
86%
15
23
✓
TEX −16.5
–
–
Final
#7Texas A&M@Rice
86%
14%
38
21
✓
TA&M −17.9
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
6.2%
94%
10
18
✓
TCU −24.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulsa
36%
64%
10
13
✓
TLSA −5.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#15UCLA
18%
82%
3
44
✓
UCLA −14.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah StateUpset
82%
18%
19
20
✗
FRES −15.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Army
47%
53%
41
10
✗
ARMY −0.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#2Washington
2.8%
97%
16
44
✓
WASH −30.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@West Virginia
24%
76%
3
28
✓
WVU −10.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 2 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −12.4 79%
Sat, Nov 2 · TBD VMI at #24 Virginia Virginia −55.3 >99%