The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 17

Wilder than 17% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockTennessee over Notre Dame22% chance · won 35-34
  • Runner-upUTEP over Hawaii26% chance · won 41-24
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Duke28% chance · won 31-14

Upsets

Sat, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
12%
88%
0
25
✓
AF −18.8
–
–
Final
74%
26%
20
17
✓
ALA −10.5
–
–
Final
35%
65%
21
24
✓
ASU −5.8
–
–
Final
13%
87%
7
50
✓
AUB −17.8
–
–
Final
29%
71%
9
3
✗
TOL −8.5
–
–
Final
58%
42%
33
13
✓
BC −3.8
–
–
Final
7.6%
92%
7
35
✓
BGSU −22.5
–
–
Final
12%
88%
31
56
✓
BYU −18.1
–
–
Final
98%
1.6%
27
14
✓
CAL −34.8
–
–
Final
63%
37%
21
6
✓
CLEM −5.8
–
–
Final
96%
3.5%
16
12
✓
COLO −29.5
–
–
Final
57%
43%
48
20
✓
ECU −3.1
–
–
Final
53%
47%
13
10
✓
EMU −1.5
–
–
Final
9.8%
90%
13
45
✓
FLA −20.3
–
–
Final
5.9%
94%
10
38
✓
FSU −24.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Pacific
86%
14%
59
14
✓
FRES −18.0
–
–
Final
#22Texas@HoustonUpset
51%
49%
14
23
✗
TEX −0.8
–
–
Final
68%
32%
41
14
✓
ILL −7.7
–
–
Final
28%
72%
21
38
✓
IOWA −9.0
–
–
Final
46%
54%
37
7
✗
ISU −1.3
–
–
Final
20%
80%
7
35
✓
MEM −13.1
–
–
Final
1.6%
98%
3
27
✓
MIA −34.1
–
–
Final
1.1%
99%
14
59
✓
MICH −36.3
–
–
Final
42%
58%
20
7
✗
WIS −2.7
–
–
Final
72%
28%
59
23
✓
NEB −9.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@New Mexico State
27%
73%
24
28
✓
NMSU −9.1
–
–
Final
78%
22%
35
6
✓
OSU −13.0
–
–
Final
85%
15%
56
16
✓
OU −17.0
–
–
Final
91%
9.2%
47
7
✓
PSU −21.6
–
–
Final
15%
85%
17
22
✓
PITT −16.2
–
–
Final
71%
29%
31
10
✓
RICE −9.4
–
–
Final
16%
84%
32
42
✓
SDSU −15.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@San Jose State
0.2%
>99%
7
35
✓
SJSU −45.7
–
–
Final
#13UCLA@StanfordUpset
59%
41%
10
27
✗
UCLA −4.1
–
–
Final
22%
78%
35
34
✗
ND −11.6
–
–
Final
80%
20%
44
7
✓
TA&M −14.0
–
–
Final
43%
57%
21
38
✓
TTU −2.3
–
–
Final
26%
74%
41
24
✗
HAW −9.9
–
–
Final
39%
61%
7
34
✓
TULN −3.8
–
–
Final
12%
88%
7
30
✓
UTAH −18.8
–
–
Final
62%
38%
27
14
✓
USU −5.6
–
–
Final
33%
67%
7
17
✓
VAN −6.6
–
–
Final
31%
69%
42
10
✗
NCSU −7.4
–
–
Final
2.9%
97%
24
42
✓
VT −30.0
–
–
Final
72%
28%
14
31
✗
DUKE −9.6
–
–
Final
88%
12%
14
3
✓
WASH −19.6
–
–
Final
36%
64%
27
40
✓
WSU −5.5
–
–
Final
52%
48%
23
24
✗
M-OH −1.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 9 · TBD Troy at Arkansas State Troy −4.9 61%
Sat, Nov 9 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Cincinnati Cincinnati −10.6 76%
Sat, Nov 9 · TBD Furman at #19 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −40.1 99%
Sat, Nov 9 · TBD Southern Illinois at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −30.3 97%