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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1991

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 12.3 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Colorado State15% chance · won 38-36
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Baylor17% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over BYU24% chance · won 52-52

Upsets

Sat, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
#16Alabama@Memphis
74%
26%
10
7
✓
ALA −10.6
–
–
Final
USC@Arizona
66%
34%
14
31
✗
USC −7.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Army
39%
61%
0
19
✓
ARMY −3.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
60%
40%
14
13
✓
BGSU −4.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#22BYU
24%
76%
52
52
✗
BYU −10.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#12California
16%
84%
6
25
✓
CAL −15.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
31%
69%
17
27
✓
CMU −7.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@#17Clemson
5.7%
94%
7
40
✓
CLEM −25.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@#11Colorado
12%
88%
24
30
✓
COLO −18.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Virginia Tech
38%
62%
24
17
✗
VT −4.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#4Florida
1.2%
99%
26
35
✓
FLA −35.8
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno State
0.2%
>99%
7
38
✓
FRES −46.7
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia
42%
58%
27
37
✓
UGA −2.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Georgia Tech
4.1%
96%
3
27
✓
GT −27.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
60%
40%
35
35
✓
SJSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
59%
41%
41
21
✓
HOU −4.0
–
–
Final
#15Iowa@Northwestern
89%
11%
24
10
✓
IOWA −20.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
32%
68%
0
32
✓
KSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
70%
30%
17
13
✓
UL −8.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana Tech
37%
63%
14
30
✓
LT −4.6
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@#3Florida State
53%
46%
17
16
✓
MIA −1.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
79%
21%
20
9
✓
M-OH −13.3
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@#20Illinois
69%
31%
20
0
✓
MICH −8.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@LSU
58%
42%
28
19
✓
MSST −3.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#7Nebraska
1.6%
98%
13
38
✓
NEB −34.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UNLV
41%
59%
28
38
✓
UNLV −3.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado StateUpset
15%
85%
38
36
✗
CSU −15.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@North Carolina
42%
58%
17
21
✓
UNC −2.8
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
72%
28%
32
31
✓
NCSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@#21Ohio State
31%
69%
16
20
✓
OSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#10Oklahoma
1.3%
99%
6
21
✓
OU −35.4
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@#9Penn State
41%
59%
13
35
✓
PSU −3.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Purdue
38%
62%
17
27
✓
PUR −4.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
39%
61%
0
41
✓
RUTG −4.0
–
–
Final
#25Stanford@Washington State
61%
39%
49
14
✓
STAN −5.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@#18Syracuse
18%
82%
16
38
✓
SYR −14.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#13Tennessee
14%
86%
25
36
✓
TENN −16.7
–
–
Final
TCU@#24Texas
20%
80%
0
32
✓
TEX −12.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#6Texas A&M
4.3%
96%
3
13
✓
TA&M −27.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#19BaylorUpset
17%
83%
31
24
✗
BAY −14.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
60%
40%
21
14
✓
TOL −4.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulsa
15%
85%
0
40
✓
TLSA −16.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@#14UCLA
16%
84%
7
16
✓
UCLA −15.3
–
–
Final
Utah@UTEP
46%
54%
10
9
✗
UTEP −1.3
–
–
Final
Pacific@Utah State
20%
80%
14
21
✓
USU −12.8
–
–
Final
#1Washington@Oregon State
>99%
0.2%
58
6
✓
WASH −46.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
40%
60%
19
16
✗
MINN −3.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 16 · TBD Illinois State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −15.8 84%