The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 32 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 36

Wilder than 36% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockKentucky over Clemson20% chance · won 28-20
  • Runner-upFlorida over Ohio State25% chance · won 41-14
  • Runner-upGeorgia over Virginia Tech32% chance · won 31-24

Upsets

Tue, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
25%
75%
7
37
✓
TCU −10.3
–
–

Thu, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
65%
35%
38
8
✓
BYU −6.7
–
–

Fri, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
56%
44%
17
41
✗
RICE −3.0
–
–

Sat, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
60%
40%
24
7
✓
USF −4.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
56%
44%
12
20
✗
UNM −3.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
52%
48%
13
25
✗
TLSA −1.1
–
–

Sun, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
40%
60%
24
41
✓
HAW −3.4
–
–

Tue, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
32%
68%
14
31
✓
CMU −7.1
–
–

Wed, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
42%
58%
44
27
✗
UCLA −2.9
–
–

Thu, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
53%
47%
34
31
✓
OKST −1.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
32%
68%
10
45
✓
CAL −6.9
–
–
Final
76%
24%
37
10
✓
RUTG −12.0
–
–

Fri, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#15ClemsonvsKentuckyUpset
80%
20%
20
28
✗
CLEM −13.7
–
–
Final
43%
57%
39
38
✗
MIZ −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
41%
59%
36
44
✓
SC −3.1
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
54%
46%
44
41
✓
TTU −2.0
–
–
Final
50%
50%
7
24
✗
PUR −0.7
–
–

Sat, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
31%
69%
24
25
✓
BC −7.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
82%
18%
26
24
✓
TEX −15.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
32%
68%
31
24
✗
VT −6.8
–
–

Sun, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
59%
41%
21
20
✓
MIA −4.1
–
–

Mon, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
59%
41%
10
20
✗
TENN −4.2
–
–
Final
53%
47%
17
14
✓
AUB −1.8
–
–
Final
42%
58%
14
17
✓
WIS −2.9
–
–
Final
26%
74%
35
38
✓
WVU −9.8
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
57%
43%
32
18
✓
USC −3.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
47%
53%
43
42
✗
OU −0.8
–
–

Tue, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
81%
19%
24
13
✓
LOU −14.7
–
–

Wed, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
37%
63%
14
41
✓
LSU −4.9
–
–

Sat, Jan 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
39%
61%
24
27
✓
CIN −3.9
–
–

Sun, Jan 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
29%
71%
7
28
✓
USM −8.2
–
–

Mon, Jan 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
26%
74%
41
14
✗
OSU −10.1
–
–