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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 42

Wilder than 42% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Illinois over Indiana3.6% chance · won 35-28
  • Runner-upKent State over Miami (OH)15% chance · won 16-14
  • Runner-upWake Forest over UConn27% chance · won 24-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Maryland@#15West Virginia
16%
84%
24
45
✓
WVU −15.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
UNLV@Hawaii
29%
71%
13
42
✓
HAW −7.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@UConn
27%
73%
24
13
✗
CONN −9.1
–
–
Final
BYU@#25Boston College
31%
69%
23
30
✓
BC −7.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#2Ohio State
2.0%
98%
7
37
✓
OSU −31.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Pittsburgh
27%
73%
38
23
✗
PITT −8.8
–
–
Final
Duke@#7Virginia Tech
1.5%
98%
0
36
✓
VT −33.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Illinois
52%
48%
31
21
✓
SYR −1.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
29%
71%
17
27
✓
IOWA −8.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Vanderbilt
43%
57%
21
19
✗
VAN −2.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Kansas State
26%
74%
7
23
✓
KSU −9.7
–
–
Final
UAB@#8Georgia
9.8%
90%
0
34
✓
UGA −19.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
42%
58%
21
24
✓
CMU −2.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
26%
74%
28
38
✓
PUR −9.5
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia Tech
23%
77%
20
35
✓
GT −10.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northwestern
16%
84%
6
14
✓
NU −15.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Minnesota
3.4%
97%
0
62
✓
MINN −28.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)Upset
16%
84%
16
14
✗
M-OH −15.3
–
–
Final
USF@UCF
59%
41%
24
17
✓
USF −3.9
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
#5LSU@#6Auburn
39%
61%
3
7
✓
AUB −3.8
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@#10Notre Dame
33%
67%
47
21
✗
ND −6.4
–
–
Final
#11Miami (FL)@#4Louisville
30%
70%
7
31
✓
LOU −7.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Rutgers
15%
85%
7
24
✓
RUTG −15.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Virginia
30%
70%
17
10
✗
UVA −7.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wisconsin
18%
82%
0
14
✓
WIS −13.5
–
–
Final
#20Oklahoma@#12Oregon
27%
73%
33
34
✓
ORE −8.9
–
–
Final
#16Boise State@Wyoming
59%
41%
17
10
✓
BOIS −4.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Washington State
30%
70%
15
17
✓
WSU −7.7
–
–
Final
#14Texas Tech@#22TCU
44%
56%
3
12
✓
TCU −1.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
29%
71%
14
31
✓
UK −8.2
–
–
Final
#3Texas@Rice
89%
11%
52
7
✓
TEX −19.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@FIU
52%
48%
33
28
✓
BGSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Washington
61%
39%
20
21
✗
FRES −4.8
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Arizona State@Colorado
64%
36%
21
3
✓
ASU −6.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@East Carolina
34%
66%
20
35
✓
ECU −5.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Oklahoma State
3.8%
96%
8
48
✓
OKST −27.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Tulsa
17%
83%
3
28
✓
TLSA −14.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Mississippi State
30%
70%
32
29
✗
MSST −7.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Southern Miss
40%
60%
17
37
✓
USM −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Alabama
8.1%
92%
7
41
✓
ALA −21.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Northern Illinois
17%
83%
13
31
✓
NIU −14.3
–
–
Final
#17Clemson@#21Florida State
40%
60%
27
20
✗
FSU −3.2
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
75%
25%
48
0
✓
UTAH −10.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Nevada
45%
55%
10
28
✓
NEV −1.2
–
–
Final
Army@Texas A&M
12%
88%
24
28
✓
TA&M −17.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Navy@Stanford
50%
50%
37
9
✗
NAVY −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kansas@Toledo
40%
60%
31
37
✓
TOL −3.5
–
–

Sun, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#24Nebraska@#1USC
10.0%
90%
10
28
✓
USC −19.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@New Mexico
63%
37%
27
17
✓
MIZ −5.5
–
–
Final
#9Florida@Tennessee
58%
42%
21
20
✓
FLA −3.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −33.5 98%
Sat, Sep 16 · 10:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at Arizona Arizona −29.8 97%
Sat, Sep 16 · 6:15 PM ET Portland State at #18 California California −35.2 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 5:00 PM ET Idaho State at Idaho Idaho −17.5 88%
Sat, Sep 16 · 4:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Indiana Indiana −27.6 96%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Furman at North Carolina North Carolina −23.9 94%
Sun, Sep 17 · TBD Texas Southern at New Mexico State New Mexico State −17.9 88%
Sat, Sep 16 · 3:30 PM ET Youngstown State at #19 Penn State Penn State −40.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Houston Houston −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −31.3 98%
Sun, Sep 17 · TBD Sam Houston at SMU SMU −9.2 74%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Wofford at South Carolina South Carolina −30.5 98%