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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Michigan State7.7% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Virginia Tech18% chance · won 38-27
  • Runner-upColorado State over Fresno State18% chance · won 35-23

Upsets

Tue, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@UCF
66%
34%
19
14
✓
USM −7.0
–
–

Thu, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
BYU@#21TCUUpset
32%
68%
31
17
✗
TCU −7.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Auburn@South Carolina
77%
23%
24
17
✓
AUB −12.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Navy@UConn
45%
55%
41
17
✗
CONN −2.3
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Indiana
69%
31%
52
17
✓
WIS −8.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan StateUpset
7.7%
92%
23
20
✗
MSU −23.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
64%
36%
37
0
✓
UVA −5.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Pittsburgh
31%
69%
3
45
✓
PITT −8.5
–
–
Final
#24Tennessee@Memphis
79%
21%
41
7
✓
TENN −13.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#5LSU
2.5%
98%
17
48
✓
LSU −32.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@Missouri
20%
80%
13
28
✓
MIZ −14.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Syracuse
42%
58%
34
40
✓
SYR −3.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
40%
60%
21
9
✗
OHIO −4.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
24%
76%
7
24
✓
AF −12.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
52%
48%
15
37
✗
AKR −0.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@#18Notre Dame
22%
78%
21
35
✓
ND −13.0
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#20Boise State@Utah
47%
53%
36
3
✗
UTAH −1.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@Utah StateUpset
21%
79%
41
21
✗
USU −13.4
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@Arizona State
56%
44%
48
13
✓
ORE −2.3
–
–
Final
Alabama@#8Florida
24%
76%
13
28
✓
FLA −11.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Penn State
19%
80%
7
33
✓
PSU −14.3
–
–
Final
#19Texas Tech@Texas A&M
49%
51%
31
27
✗
TA&M −0.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#9Virginia TechUpset
18%
82%
38
27
✗
VT −15.5
–
–
Final
Rice@ArmyUpset
22%
78%
48
14
✗
ARMY −12.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
43%
57%
10
24
✓
CIN −3.1
–
–
Final
#13California@Oregon State
72%
28%
41
13
✓
CAL −9.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Louisiana
34%
66%
14
33
✓
UL −7.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
59%
41%
10
31
✗
SDSU −3.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kentucky
40%
60%
36
45
✓
UK −4.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@FIU
30%
70%
31
6
✗
FIU −8.7
–
–
Final
Houston@#16Miami (FL)
19%
81%
13
14
✓
MIA −14.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
52%
48%
40
28
✓
NIU −0.8
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Troy@UAB
30%
70%
3
21
✓
UAB −8.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@#17Nebraska
17%
83%
32
39
✓
NEB −16.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#11Clemson
4.3%
96%
0
51
✓
CLEM −28.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Vanderbilt
6.4%
94%
14
43
✓
VAN −25.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Baylor
42%
58%
3
17
✓
BAY −3.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
42%
58%
35
0
✗
UNT −3.5
–
–
Final
#1USC@Washington State
85%
15%
28
22
✓
USC −17.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
21%
79%
21
19
✗
ULM −13.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
60%
40%
33
28
✓
SMU −4.3
–
–
Final
#10Georgia@Ole Miss
91%
8.8%
14
9
✓
UGA −22.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
17%
83%
38
44
✓
UTEP −15.7
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Washington@Arizona
44%
56%
21
10
✗
ARIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Fresno StateUpset
18%
82%
35
23
✗
FRES −15.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
56%
44%
31
3
✓
NEV −2.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@UCLA
9.3%
91%
0
31
✓
UCLA −22.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Rutgers@USF
51%
49%
22
20
✓
RUTG −0.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#6Michigan@#22Minnesota
60%
40%
28
14
✓
MICH −4.2
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Iowa
71%
29%
38
17
✓
OSU −9.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 30 · 12:00 AM ET Eastern Illinois at Hawaii Hawaii −45.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 30 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 30 · 1:00 PM ET Maine at #25 Boston College Boston College −37.3 99%
Sat, Sep 30 · 3:30 PM ET Liberty at Wake Forest Wake Forest −26.2 94%
Sat, Sep 30 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston at #3 Texas Texas −46.7 >99%