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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 56

Wilder than 56% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockUSF over West Virginia12% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Texas13% chance · won 12-7
  • Runner-upUNLV over Air Force22% chance · won 42-39

Upsets

Wed, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
34%
66%
21
31
✓
TOL −5.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#19Boston College@Miami (FL)Upset
54%
46%
14
17
✗
BC −2.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
74%
26%
27
0
✓
NIU −10.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
51%
49%
34
24
✓
OHIO −0.9
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#3TexasUpset
13%
87%
12
7
✗
TEX −17.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
37%
63%
6
30
✓
BALL −4.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Buffalo
82%
18%
55
28
✓
CMU −15.3
–
–
Final
#6LSU@#21Arkansas
61%
39%
31
26
✓
LSU −4.9
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Tulane@Tulsa
10%
90%
3
38
✓
TLSA −19.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#20Nebraska
13%
87%
14
37
✓
NEB −17.3
–
–
Final
Oregon@Oregon State
51%
49%
28
30
✗
ORE −1.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
47%
53%
17
0
✗
AKR −0.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Louisiana Tech
78%
22%
34
27
✓
FRES −12.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Cincinnati@UConn
56%
44%
26
23
✓
CIN −2.8
–
–
Final
#11Florida@Florida State
62%
38%
21
14
✓
FLA −5.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
31%
68%
17
42
✓
MIZ −7.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
64%
36%
45
44
✓
UNC −6.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#22Rutgers
14%
86%
7
38
✓
RUTG −16.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#14ClemsonUpset
25%
75%
31
28
✗
CLEM −10.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@#8Virginia Tech
10%
90%
0
17
✓
VT −20.0
–
–
Final
USF@#7West VirginiaUpset
12%
88%
24
19
✗
WVU −18.6
–
–
Final
UAB@UCF
54%
46%
22
31
✗
UAB −2.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#15Tennessee
12%
88%
12
17
✓
TENN −18.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
44%
56%
17
20
✓
MISS −1.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
29%
71%
14
41
✓
UNM −8.4
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma@Oklahoma State
59%
41%
27
21
✓
OU −4.2
–
–

Afternoon 10 games

Final
SMU@Rice
47%
53%
27
31
✓
RICE −0.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
62%
38%
42
20
✓
NMSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#24Georgia
35%
65%
12
15
✓
UGA −5.6
–
–
Final
#4Louisville@Pittsburgh
73%
27%
48
24
✓
LOU −10.4
–
–
Final
#9BYU@Utah
72%
28%
33
31
✓
BYU −9.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
29%
71%
21
20
✗
MTSU −8.4
–
–
Final
#17Boise State@Nevada
62%
38%
38
7
✓
BOIS −5.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
32%
68%
13
28
✓
UL −6.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Idaho
77%
23%
28
13
✓
SJSU −12.3
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Arizona
46%
54%
28
14
✗
ARIZ −1.0
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Marshall@Southern Miss
26%
74%
7
42
✓
USM −9.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
52%
48%
38
24
✓
WAKE −1.3
–
–
Final
#13Notre Dame@#2USC
23%
77%
24
44
✓
USC −11.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@UTEPUpset
24%
76%
38
19
✗
UTEP −10.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Purdue@#23Hawaii
21%
79%
35
42
✓
HAW −12.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Air Force@UNLVUpset
78%
22%
39
42
✗
AF −12.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
TCU@Colorado State
74%
26%
45
14
✓
TCU −10.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@NC State
43%
57%
21
16
✗
NCSU −2.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
34%
66%
0
31
✓
FAU −6.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana-Monroe
31%
68%
3
23
✓
ULM −7.2
–
–