The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 33

Wilder than 33% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockIndiana over Iowa18% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Georgia19% chance · won 24-22
  • Runner-upIdaho over Louisiana Tech23% chance · won 24-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#15Virginia Tech@Boston CollegeUpset
55%
45%
3
22
✗
VT −2.0
–
–
Final
#9Clemson@Temple
99%
1.4%
63
9
✓
CLEM −36.6
–
–

Fri, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
31%
69%
21
24
✓
AF −8.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Army@UConn
37%
63%
7
21
✓
CONN −5.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
60%
40%
31
10
✓
PUR −4.0
–
–
Final
#24Iowa@IndianaUpset
82%
18%
28
31
✗
IOWA −15.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
48%
52%
25
23
✗
NCSU −1.1
–
–
Final
USF@North Carolina
69%
31%
37
20
✓
USF −8.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#19Wisconsin
38%
62%
12
48
✓
WIS −5.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#12West Virginia
13%
87%
17
41
✓
WVU −19.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#18GeorgiaUpset
19%
81%
24
22
✗
UGA −14.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#16Oklahoma
12%
88%
9
34
✓
OU −19.2
–
–
Final
Florida State@Duke
92%
7.9%
51
24
✓
FSU −23.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
68%
32%
38
31
✓
M-OH −7.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
30%
70%
7
18
✓
CMU −8.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Navy
42%
58%
34
0
✗
NAVY −3.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
39%
61%
26
23
✗
MEM −4.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
53%
47%
42
32
✓
OKST −1.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
47%
53%
14
16
✓
WMU −1.4
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
61%
39%
31
10
✓
TLSA −4.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@SMU
33%
67%
21
31
✓
SMU −7.5
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
58%
42%
15
31
✗
UTAH −3.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Colorado
74%
26%
6
30
✗
TTU −10.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#4Louisville
4.0%
96%
17
23
✓
LOU −29.1
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Michigan State
86%
14%
38
7
✓
OSU −17.5
–
–
Final
#25Missouri@Texas A&MUpset
51%
49%
19
25
✗
MIZ −0.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Virginia
44%
56%
28
26
✗
UVA −2.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Alabama
13%
87%
23
26
✓
ALA −18.6
–
–
Final
#23UCLA@#14Oregon
35%
65%
20
30
✓
ORE −6.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
26%
74%
21
24
✓
BGSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kent State
38%
62%
14
40
✓
KENT −5.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Troy
32%
68%
19
24
✓
TROY −7.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Stanford
61%
39%
20
7
✓
ARIZ −4.4
–
–
Final
#8California@Washington State
72%
28%
21
3
✓
CAL −9.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
46%
54%
68
37
✗
FRES −1.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
22%
78%
14
21
✓
SJSU −12.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
32%
68%
27
17
✗
WASH −7.7
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Baylor@#2Texas
5.7%
94%
31
63
✓
TEX −26.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Illinois
48%
52%
20
17
✗
ILL −1.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@Louisiana TechUpset
23%
77%
24
14
✗
LT −12.6
–
–
Final
FIU@#20Miami (FL)
4.9%
95%
0
35
✓
MIA −27.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Southern Miss
42%
58%
27
31
✓
USM −3.5
–
–
Final
#21Nebraska@Kansas State
72%
28%
21
3
✓
NEB −9.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Rice
59%
41%
33
34
✗
UAB −3.7
–
–
Final
#6Florida@#13Auburn
58%
42%
17
27
✗
FLA −3.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@UTEP
26%
74%
20
34
✓
UTEP −10.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
New Mexico@UNLV
65%
35%
39
36
✓
UNM −6.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@UCF
78%
22%
52
7
✓
PITT −12.6
–
–

Sun, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Arizona State@#3USC
9.1%
91%
21
28
✓
USC −22.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#7LSU
9.6%
90%
0
49
✓
LSU −21.7
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@Penn State
72%
28%
17
10
✓
MICH −9.5
–
–

Mon, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10Boise State@New Mexico State
95%
4.8%
40
28
✓
BOIS −27.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Oct 12 · 7:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −3.6 58%
Sat, Oct 14 · 2:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas Arkansas −43.1 >99%
Sat, Oct 14 · 2:30 PM ET Jacksonville State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −3.6 58%