The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Clemson11% chance · won 13-12
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Iowa12% chance · won 21-7
  • Runner-upMississippi State over Alabama12% chance · won 24-16

Upsets

Tue, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UAB@SMU
43%
57%
9
22
✓
SMU −2.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno State@#15Boise State
9.5%
90%
21
45
✓
BOIS −20.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8West Virginia@#6Louisville
37%
63%
34
44
✓
LOU −4.9
–
–

Fri, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Air Force@Army
65%
35%
43
7
✓
AF −6.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Virginia@Florida State
24%
76%
0
33
✓
FSU −10.6
–
–
Final
#23Pittsburgh@USFUpset
61%
39%
12
22
✗
PITT −5.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@#5Michigan
2.8%
97%
26
34
✓
MICH −30.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Minnesota
25%
75%
26
63
✓
MINN −10.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@#22Nebraska
38%
62%
20
34
✓
NEB −4.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@#10ClemsonUpset
11%
89%
13
12
✗
CLEM −18.9
–
–
Final
#24Penn State@#16Wisconsin
31%
69%
3
13
✓
WIS −7.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
23%
77%
21
55
✓
TTU −11.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@IowaUpset
12%
88%
21
7
✗
IOWA −18.0
–
–
Final
#9Florida@Vanderbilt
81%
19%
25
19
✓
FLA −14.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@AlabamaUpset
12%
88%
24
16
✗
ALA −18.0
–
–
Final
Georgia@Kentucky
68%
32%
20
24
✗
UGA −8.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Duke
82%
18%
38
13
✓
NAVY −15.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Temple
88%
12%
42
26
✓
CMU −19.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
31%
69%
28
35
✓
AKR −7.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@BuffaloUpset
79%
21%
14
41
✗
KENT −13.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
61%
39%
16
10
✓
OHIO −4.9
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Kansas@Iowa State
57%
43%
41
10
✓
KU −3.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#11Auburn
2.6%
97%
0
27
✓
AUB −31.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#19Notre Dame
5.0%
95%
26
45
✓
ND −26.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah State
93%
6.6%
63
10
✓
HAW −24.5
–
–
Final
TCU@UNLV
90%
10%
25
10
✓
TCU −20.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
16%
84%
24
27
✓
WYO −15.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Colorado
43%
57%
34
21
✗
COLO −2.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
36%
64%
17
15
✗
MSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Houston
52%
48%
10
27
✗
TLSA −1.4
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Illinois
98%
2.1%
17
10
✓
OSU −33.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
18%
82%
14
35
✓
MTSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Washington@#18Oregon
18%
82%
14
34
✓
ORE −14.2
–
–
Final
#3LSU@#14Tennessee
57%
43%
28
24
✓
LSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
23%
77%
24
27
✓
WMU −11.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UCF
66%
34%
23
10
✓
ECU −7.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
49%
51%
28
42
✓
UL −0.2
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
50%
50%
10
44
✓
ASU −0.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Idaho
88%
12%
45
7
✓
NEV −19.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington StateUpset
16%
84%
27
17
✗
WSU −15.6
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
#17BYU@Colorado State
80%
20%
24
3
✓
BYU −14.0
–
–
Final
#4USC@Stanford
97%
2.8%
42
0
✓
USC −31.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
59%
41%
31
23
✓
GT −4.0
–
–
Final
#20Boston College@Wake ForestUpset
64%
36%
14
21
✗
BC −6.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@North Texas
39%
61%
34
31
✗
UNT −3.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Texas
12%
88%
10
36
✓
TEX −18.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Marshall
36%
64%
21
42
✓
MRSH −5.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@South Carolina
50%
50%
26
20
✗
ARK −0.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@#7California
17%
83%
24
38
✓
CAL −14.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico State
55%
45%
31
21
✓
SJSU −2.5
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma@Texas A&M
61%
39%
17
16
✓
OU −4.8
–
–
Final
#13Virginia Tech@#25Miami (FL)
56%
44%
17
10
✓
VT −2.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Rice@UTEP
31%
69%
37
31
✗
UTEP −7.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
71%
29%
42
21
✓
USM −9.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 4 · 2:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −29.6 97%