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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 87

Wilder than 87% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas State over Texas11% chance · won 45-42
  • Runner-upStanford over Washington11% chance · won 20-3
  • Runner-upRice over Tulsa15% chance · won 41-38

Upsets

Tue, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Northern IllinoisUpset
24%
76%
17
13
✗
NIU −10.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Akron
16%
84%
16
31
✓
AKR −15.3
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#5Louisville@#21Rutgers
63%
37%
25
28
✗
LOU −5.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#15BYU
14%
86%
7
55
✓
BYU −16.6
–
–

Fri, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UTEP@UAB
43%
57%
36
17
✗
UAB −2.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Syracuse@USF
28%
72%
10
27
✓
USF −8.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan State
52%
48%
31
18
✓
MINN −1.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
80%
20%
7
0
✓
GT −14.2
–
–
Final
NC State@#10Clemson
11%
89%
14
20
✓
CLEM −19.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#8West Virginia
9.4%
91%
24
42
✓
WVU −20.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
58%
42%
42
31
✓
PUR −3.5
–
–
Final
#16Wisconsin@Iowa
63%
37%
24
21
✓
WIS −5.9
–
–
Final
Georgia@#12AuburnUpset
24%
76%
37
15
✗
AUB −10.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
20%
80%
24
66
✓
OKST −12.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
45%
55%
26
38
✓
UK −1.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@East Carolina
30%
70%
20
33
✓
ECU −8.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Eastern Michigan
78%
22%
49
21
✓
NAVY −12.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah
24%
76%
22
35
✓
UTAH −10.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
70%
30%
31
3
✓
USM −9.0
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Iowa State@Colorado
29%
71%
16
33
✓
COLO −8.4
–
–
Final
Rice@TulsaUpset
15%
85%
41
38
✗
TLSA −16.2
–
–
Final
Houston@SMU
63%
37%
37
27
✓
HOU −5.8
–
–
Final
#7California@ArizonaUpset
85%
15%
20
24
✗
CAL −16.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@UConn
71%
29%
45
46
✗
PITT −9.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#9Florida
15%
85%
16
17
✓
FLA −15.8
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Northwestern
95%
4.7%
54
10
✓
OSU −27.2
–
–
Final
#6Michigan@Indiana
90%
9.5%
34
3
✓
MICH −21.3
–
–
Final
#25Miami (FL)@MarylandUpset
56%
44%
13
14
✗
MIA −3.1
–
–
Final
Temple@#24Penn State
1.6%
98%
0
47
✓
PSU −34.0
–
–
Final
#22Nebraska@Texas A&M
52%
48%
28
27
✓
NEB −1.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@#11Virginia Tech
5.0%
95%
0
23
✓
VT −26.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@WashingtonUpset
11%
89%
20
3
✗
WASH −18.9
–
–
Final
#19Notre Dame@Air Force
66%
34%
39
17
✓
ND −7.2
–
–
Final
Troy@Florida Atlantic
61%
39%
24
17
✓
TROY −4.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Nevada
4.0%
96%
0
42
✓
NEV −27.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Fresno State
18%
82%
18
23
✓
FRES −14.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@LouisianaUpset
22%
78%
16
7
✗
UL −12.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Arkansas State
64%
36%
38
10
✓
MTSU −6.1
–
–
Final
TCU@New Mexico
72%
28%
27
21
✓
TCU −9.6
–
–
Final
#13Boise State@San Jose State
89%
11%
23
20
✓
BOIS −19.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@UCLA
39%
61%
7
25
✓
UCLA −4.1
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Alabama@#4LSU
13%
87%
14
28
✓
LSU −17.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#23Florida StateUpset
27%
73%
30
0
✗
FSU −9.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Memphis
45%
55%
26
24
✗
MEM −1.7
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Kansas StateUpset
89%
11%
42
45
✗
TEX −20.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona State
49%
51%
14
47
✓
WSU −0.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
28%
72%
7
21
✓
SDSU −8.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#18Oregon@#3USC
24%
76%
10
35
✓
USC −11.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Hawaii
3.7%
96%
17
61
✓
HAW −28.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
36%
64%
7
31
✓
CMU −5.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#17Tennessee@ArkansasUpset
54%
46%
14
31
✗
TENN −2.3
–
–
Final
Duke@#20Boston College
2.2%
98%
7
28
✓
BC −32.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#14Oklahoma
26%
74%
24
34
✓
OU −9.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@FIU
39%
61%
35
0
✗
FIU −4.0
–
–