The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 82

Wilder than 82% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 16.7 expected

  • Biggest shockUtah State over Fresno State6.5% chance · won 13-12
  • Runner-upArkansas over Auburn12% chance · won 27-10
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Houston20% chance · won 31-28

Upsets

Tue, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Tulsa
44%
56%
6
20
✓
TLSA −2.5
–
–

Wed, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCF@Marshall
51%
49%
23
22
✓
UCF −0.2
–
–

Thu, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#22Florida State@NC StateUpset
68%
32%
20
24
✗
FSU −7.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Utah
55%
45%
7
20
✗
TCU −1.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 19 games

Final
Nevada@Hawaii
41%
59%
34
41
✓
HAW −4.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#8AuburnUpset
12%
88%
27
10
✗
AUB −19.4
–
–
Final
Penn State@#24MinnesotaUpset
43%
57%
28
27
✗
MINN −3.0
–
–
Final
#10Clemson@Wake Forest
73%
27%
27
17
✓
CLEM −10.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
66%
34%
21
11
✓
PITT −6.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
67%
33%
20
27
✗
WMU −7.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#23Wisconsin
14%
86%
9
41
✓
WIS −17.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
47%
53%
34
32
✗
ILL −1.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
32%
68%
17
47
✓
IOWA −8.1
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Kansas
60%
40%
21
18
✓
TA&M −4.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#19Miami (FL)
9.8%
90%
7
27
✓
MIA −21.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Temple
84%
16%
28
17
✓
KENT −16.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Buffalo
57%
43%
55
25
✓
BALL −3.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
69%
31%
10
17
✗
VAN −8.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@BYU
9.2%
91%
17
47
✓
BYU −22.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
47%
53%
24
17
✗
AF −1.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
58%
42%
24
38
✗
RICE −3.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@#18Notre Dame
5.2%
95%
10
31
✓
ND −27.0
–
–
Final
#15West Virginia@Mississippi State
89%
11%
42
14
✓
WVU −20.6
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Washington@#2USC
6.8%
93%
20
26
✓
USC −24.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@Colorado
53%
47%
34
31
✓
BAY −1.3
–
–
Final
#6LSU@#7Florida
48%
52%
10
23
✓
FLA −1.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Georgia Tech
21%
78%
23
27
✓
GT −13.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#1Ohio State
1.9%
98%
7
35
✓
OSU −34.3
–
–
Final
#3Texas@#12Oklahoma
60%
40%
28
10
✓
TEX −3.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Cincinnati
45%
55%
14
20
✓
CIN −2.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas State
62%
38%
27
31
✗
OKST −4.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5Michigan
14%
86%
13
31
✓
MICH −18.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@IdahoUpset
76%
24%
20
28
✗
NMSU −11.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
20%
80%
7
28
✓
CSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@East Carolina
52%
48%
21
31
✗
UVA −0.6
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Memphis@UAB
26%
74%
29
35
✓
UAB −11.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@#25UCLA
19%
82%
7
27
✓
UCLA −15.0
–
–
Final
UConn@USF
36%
64%
16
38
✓
USF −6.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
51%
49%
24
17
✓
SC −0.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
62%
38%
13
6
✓
WSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@HoustonUpset
20%
80%
31
28
✗
HOU −14.2
–
–
Final
FIU@North Texas
49%
51%
22
25
✓
UNT −0.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@#20Texas TechUpset
34%
66%
38
21
✗
TTU −7.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
44%
56%
42
20
✗
TOL −2.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
34%
66%
6
10
✓
ARST −6.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Alabama
4.2%
96%
14
30
✓
ALA −28.7
–
–
Final
#17Tennessee@#14Georgia
42%
58%
51
33
✗
UGA −3.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah StateUpset
94%
6.5%
12
13
✗
FRES −25.1
–
–
Final
SMU@UTEP
39%
61%
21
24
✓
UTEP −4.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#4Louisville@Middle Tennessee
94%
6.5%
44
17
✓
LOU −25.0
–
–

Sun, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#9Oregon@#11California
47%
53%
24
45
✓
CAL −1.5
–
–
Final
#21Nebraska@Iowa State
75%
25%
28
14
✓
NEB −11.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#13Boise State
3.4%
97%
14
55
✓
BOIS −30.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
55%
45%
14
10
✓
WYO −1.9
–
–

Mon, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Miami (OH)
60%
40%
28
25
✓
NIU −4.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 7 · 1:00 PM ET VMI at Army Army −28.4 96%