The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 32

Wilder than 32% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockMississippi State over UAB19% chance · won 16-10
  • Runner-upNorth Dakota State over Ball State20% chance · won 29-24
  • Runner-upKent State over Bowling Green23% chance · won 38-3

Upsets

Thu, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
29%
71%
7
24
✓
GT −9.3
–
–

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
#25Wisconsin@#6Michigan
22%
78%
13
27
✓
MICH −12.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#15Clemson
12%
88%
7
52
✓
CLEM −19.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#9Virginia Tech
4.0%
96%
13
29
✓
VT −29.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
84%
16%
24
7
✓
IOWA −16.5
–
–
Final
#19Minnesota@PurdueUpset
62%
38%
21
27
✗
MINN −4.8
–
–
Final
#4Louisville@Kansas State
84%
16%
24
6
✓
LOU −16.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#5Georgia
4.3%
96%
13
14
✓
UGA −28.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling GreenUpset
23%
77%
38
3
✗
BGSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Navy
38%
62%
24
23
✗
NAVY −5.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Missouri
19%
81%
6
31
✓
MIZ −14.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#7Auburn
1.8%
98%
7
38
✓
AUB −34.7
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Utah State@BYU
4.9%
95%
0
38
✓
BYU −27.6
–
–
Final
#23Alabama@ArkansasUpset
59%
41%
23
24
✗
ALA −3.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#21California
38%
62%
21
49
✓
CAL −5.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Florida State
12%
88%
7
55
✓
FSU −20.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Indiana
52%
48%
14
7
✓
CONN −0.7
–
–
Final
Penn State@#2Ohio State
15%
85%
6
28
✓
OSU −17.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#3Texas
9.1%
91%
14
37
✓
TEX −22.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
61%
39%
24
17
✓
CMU −4.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@Tennessee
11%
89%
7
33
✓
TENN −20.2
–
–
Final
#11West Virginia@East Carolina
74%
26%
27
10
✓
WVU −10.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
41%
59%
31
24
✗
WYO −3.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@Stanford
64%
36%
36
10
✓
WSU −6.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
63%
37%
13
26
✗
UTEP −5.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Maryland
23%
77%
10
14
✓
MD −12.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Ole Miss
66%
34%
27
3
✓
WAKE −6.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Akron
25%
75%
13
33
✓
AKR −11.4
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Mississippi State@UABUpset
19%
80%
16
10
✗
UAB −14.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Nebraska
15%
85%
0
56
✓
NEB −17.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Syracuse
39%
61%
14
34
✓
SYR −4.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#20Oklahoma
11%
89%
0
59
✓
OU −20.8
–
–
Final
Army@Baylor
28%
72%
27
20
✗
BAY −9.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas A&M
16%
84%
14
45
✓
TA&M −16.6
–
–
Final
#24UCLA@WashingtonUpset
69%
31%
19
29
✗
UCLA −8.1
–
–
Final
USF@Kansas
48%
52%
7
13
✓
KU −0.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@South Carolina
7.7%
92%
6
45
✓
SC −23.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Western Michigan
9.8%
90%
7
41
✓
WMU −21.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#10Florida
11%
89%
7
26
✓
FLA −20.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Houston
55%
45%
25
34
✗
OKST −2.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Idaho@Oregon State
4.1%
96%
0
38
✓
ORST −29.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northwestern@Nevada
45%
55%
21
31
✓
NEV −2.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 7 games

Final
#1USC@Arizona
92%
7.6%
20
3
✓
USC −23.6
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
58%
42%
38
7
✓
UTAH −3.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#14Boise State
21%
79%
34
41
✓
BOIS −13.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@#8LSU
2.4%
98%
7
49
✓
LSU −33.0
–
–
Final
#16Notre Dame@Michigan State
50%
50%
40
37
✗
MSU −0.3
–
–
Final
#22Boston College@NC StateUpset
65%
35%
15
17
✗
BC −6.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@SMU
38%
62%
9
55
✓
SMU −5.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 23 · 6:00 PM ET Cal Poly at San Jose State San Jose State −17.1 85%
Sat, Sep 23 · 2:00 PM ET Howard vs Rutgers Rutgers −27.3 95%
Sat, Sep 23 · 1:30 PM ET The Citadel at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −44.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 23 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee State at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −25.4 94%
Sat, Sep 23 · 5:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Louisiana Louisiana −13.4 79%
Sat, Sep 23 · 6:30 PM ET North Dakota State at Ball State Ball State −14.0 80%
Sat, Sep 23 · 3:05 PM ET Indiana State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −44.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 23 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at #18 Texas Tech Texas Tech −44.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 23 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Toledo Toledo −33.4 98%