The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockCal Poly over San Diego State6.2% chance · won 16-14
  • Runner-upOregon State over USC13% chance · won 33-31
  • Runner-upTemple over Bowling Green20% chance · won 28-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Clemson@#16Virginia Tech
55%
45%
7
24
✗
CLEM −2.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Idaho@Hawaii
3.8%
96%
10
68
✓
HAW −28.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Indiana
67%
33%
21
46
✗
MSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#5Michigan
2.3%
98%
3
17
✓
MICH −31.7
–
–
Final
#15Oklahoma@#25Missouri
51%
49%
26
10
✓
OU −1.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
42%
58%
7
14
✓
UVA −2.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@#12Wisconsin
3.9%
96%
24
30
✓
WIS −28.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Cincinnati
40%
60%
3
17
✓
CIN −3.4
–
–
Final
#22Notre Dame@Navy
60%
40%
38
14
✓
ND −4.7
–
–
Final
Penn State@Purdue
63%
37%
12
0
✓
PSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Iowa
22%
78%
14
24
✓
IOWA −11.6
–
–
Final
#11Auburn@Ole Miss
91%
8.6%
23
17
✓
AUB −22.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#17Boston College
1.2%
99%
0
41
✓
BC −36.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Duke
77%
23%
45
28
✓
VAN −12.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@TempleUpset
80%
20%
14
28
✗
BGSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
43%
57%
20
17
✗
M-OH −2.4
–
–
Final
#18BYU@Air Force
68%
32%
33
14
✓
BYU −7.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
39%
61%
15
20
✓
KU −4.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
34%
66%
17
7
✗
KENT −5.9
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
48%
52%
28
42
✓
TULN −0.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
51%
49%
34
31
✓
UK −0.7
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
FIU@Alabama
6.1%
94%
3
38
✓
ALA −24.4
–
–
Final
#10Florida@Georgia
63%
37%
21
14
✓
FLA −5.9
–
–
Final
#24Miami (FL)@Georgia TechUpset
51%
49%
23
30
✗
MIA −1.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
74%
26%
24
17
✓
WAKE −10.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#1Ohio State
5.6%
94%
0
44
✓
OSU −25.2
–
–
Final
#20Nebraska@Oklahoma StateUpset
59%
41%
29
41
✗
NEB −4.1
–
–
Final
#3USC@Oregon StateUpset
86%
14%
31
33
✗
USC −18.1
–
–
Final
UCF@Houston
14%
86%
31
51
✓
HOU −17.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@Troy
28%
72%
6
14
✓
TROY −9.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
16%
84%
15
18
✓
WMU −15.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
35%
65%
10
31
✓
KSU −5.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah
8.7%
91%
23
45
✓
UTAH −21.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Florida Atlantic
64%
36%
0
29
✗
ARST −6.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Nevada
16%
84%
21
48
✓
NEV −15.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Marshall
36%
64%
27
41
✓
MRSH −5.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana
39%
61%
34
20
✗
UL −3.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
38%
62%
20
19
✗
CSU −4.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@San Jose State
35%
65%
10
44
✓
SJSU −5.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Arkansas@Louisiana-Monroe
89%
11%
44
10
✓
ARK −19.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@UCLA
36%
64%
37
15
✗
UCLA −5.1
–
–
Final
Florida State@Maryland
64%
36%
24
27
✗
FSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Washington
52%
48%
26
23
✓
ASU −1.3
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Texas Tech
81%
19%
35
31
✓
TEX −14.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Toledo
56%
44%
20
35
✗
AKR −2.8
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Baylor
63%
37%
31
21
✓
TA&M −5.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
35%
65%
20
17
✗
USM −5.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@TCU
35%
65%
3
26
✓
TCU −5.8
–
–
Final
#14Tennessee@South Carolina
65%
35%
31
24
✓
TENN −6.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UTEP@Tulsa
17%
83%
20
30
✓
TLSA −14.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UConn@#21Rutgers
11%
89%
13
24
✓
RUTG −19.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sun, Oct 29 · TBD Cal Poly at San Diego State San Diego State −24.2 94%
Sat, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET Portland State at #19 Oregon Oregon −35.3 99%