The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 37

Wilder than 37% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona over Oregon17% chance · won 37-10
  • Runner-upIowa State over Missouri18% chance · won 21-16
  • Runner-upArkansas State over Troy27% chance · won 33-26

Upsets

Wed, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
44%
56%
9
7
✗
BGSU −1.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ball State@Toledo
44%
56%
20
17
✗
TOL −1.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Akron@Ohio
41%
59%
7
17
✓
OHIO −3.2
–
–
Final
#7West Virginia@Pittsburgh
66%
34%
45
27
✓
WVU −7.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
27%
73%
6
14
✓
KENT −9.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
51%
49%
10
31
✗
CMU −1.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 22 games

Final
Maryland@#21Boston College
22%
78%
16
38
✓
BC −11.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
40%
60%
24
34
✓
MINN −3.5
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
65%
35%
9
23
✗
NCSU −6.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Syracuse
43%
57%
14
20
✓
SYR −2.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#25Penn State
19%
81%
13
17
✓
PSU −13.4
–
–
Final
#14Oklahoma@Baylor
85%
15%
36
10
✓
OU −16.8
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Virginia
64%
36%
7
17
✗
MIA −6.4
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#15Wisconsin
1.3%
99%
3
35
✓
WIS −35.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
25%
75%
19
28
✓
PUR −10.3
–
–
Final
#19Tennessee@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
39
10
✓
TENN −9.6
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
2.7%
97%
6
42
✓
NAVY −30.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@South Carolina
25%
75%
7
52
✓
SC −10.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
36%
64%
16
27
✓
NU −5.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Kentucky
15%
85%
40
42
✓
UK −16.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
4.4%
96%
21
49
✓
GT −27.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Florida State
18%
82%
20
28
✓
FSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Iowa StateUpset
82%
18%
16
21
✗
MIZ −15.0
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
84%
16%
23
20
✓
HOU −16.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
43%
57%
24
30
✓
TTU −2.4
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulane
44%
56%
9
10
✓
TULN −2.1
–
–
Final
Army@#13Notre Dame
2.9%
97%
9
41
✓
ND −30.1
–
–
Final
#23Arkansas@Mississippi State
77%
23%
28
14
✓
ARK −12.4
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Utah State@#16Boise State
0.7%
99%
10
49
✓
BOIS −39.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Rice
54%
46%
17
18
✗
ECU −2.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
67%
33%
24
34
✗
TLSA −7.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
77%
23%
30
7
✓
ORST −12.1
–
–
Final
#6Michigan@#1Ohio State
25%
75%
39
42
✓
OSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
40%
60%
20
39
✓
KU −3.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@#20OregonUpset
17%
83%
37
10
✗
ORE −14.9
–
–
Final
#18Auburn@Alabama
57%
43%
22
15
✓
AUB −3.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#10BYU
6.5%
94%
17
42
✓
BYU −23.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
75%
25%
34
26
✓
WYO −11.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@TCU
11%
89%
0
52
✓
TCU −19.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Marshall
52%
48%
21
49
✗
UTEP −1.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Fresno State
9.0%
91%
0
34
✓
FRES −21.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@FIU
62%
38%
17
7
✓
UL −5.4
–
–
Final
Washington@Washington State
29%
71%
35
32
✗
WSU −8.4
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
USF@#5Louisville
11%
89%
8
31
✓
LOU −19.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Air Force
47%
53%
17
14
✗
AF −0.7
–
–
Final
#17Rutgers@CincinnatiUpset
72%
28%
11
30
✗
RUTG −9.6
–
–
Final
#8California@#2USC
27%
73%
9
23
✓
USC −9.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#4LSU
2.3%
98%
20
23
✓
LSU −31.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Louisiana Tech
87%
13%
42
0
✓
NEV −18.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern Miss
21%
79%
20
25
✓
USM −12.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UCLA@Arizona State
45%
55%
24
12
✗
ASU −1.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
11%
89%
17
54
✓
HAW −18.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#11Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
62%
38%
27
6
✓
VT −5.4
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@North Texas
40%
60%
17
16
✗
UNT −3.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Troy
27%
73%
33
26
✗
TROY −9.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #9 Florida Florida −53.1 >99%