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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 4

Wilder than 4% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.2 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Diego State over Air Force23% chance · won 19-12
  • Runner-upMarshall over UAB27% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upWashington State over Oregon35% chance · won 34-23

Upsets

Wed, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana@Florida Atlantic
75%
25%
6
0
✓
UL −11.3
–
–

Thu, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
North Carolina@Virginia
26%
74%
0
23
✓
UVA −9.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
29%
71%
14
31
✓
CMU −8.4
–
–
Final
Utah@New Mexico
65%
35%
31
34
✗
UTAH −6.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Michigan State@Northwestern
72%
28%
41
38
✓
MSU −9.9
–
–
Final
NC State@Maryland
48%
52%
20
26
✓
MD −0.2
–
–
Final
#2Texas@#19Nebraska
72%
28%
22
20
✓
TEX −9.9
–
–
Final
#6Louisville@Syracuse
87%
13%
28
13
✓
LOU −18.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#1Ohio State
1.3%
99%
3
44
✓
OSU −35.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Penn State
8.3%
92%
12
26
✓
PSU −21.7
–
–
Final
#14Wisconsin@Purdue
74%
26%
24
3
✓
WIS −10.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
16%
84%
3
38
✓
ARK −15.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#23Georgia
8.6%
91%
24
27
✓
UGA −21.4
–
–
Final
#18Miami (FL)@Duke
96%
4.5%
20
15
✓
MIA −27.5
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Missouri
18%
82%
21
41
✓
MIZ −14.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ohio
19%
81%
7
42
✓
OHIO −13.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
54%
46%
41
27
✓
WMU −2.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@#11Auburn
3.0%
97%
13
38
✓
AUB −29.8
–
–
Final
UCLA@#17Notre Dame
34%
66%
17
20
✓
ND −6.0
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
SMU@East Carolina
41%
59%
21
38
✓
ECU −3.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
47%
53%
31
13
✗
VAN −0.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@#24BYU
4.2%
96%
7
52
✓
BYU −27.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
56%
44%
13
17
✗
TOL −2.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@Baylor
44%
56%
35
36
✓
BAY −2.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Northern Illinois
5.3%
95%
21
43
✓
NIU −25.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona State
9.9%
90%
3
38
✓
ASU −20.2
–
–
Final
Washington@#7California
9.3%
91%
24
31
✓
CAL −20.7
–
–
Final
#20Boston College@Florida State
46%
54%
24
19
✗
FSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
66%
34%
42
26
✓
TTU −7.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@#4Michigan
16%
84%
6
20
✓
MICH −15.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Army
75%
25%
31
17
✓
TCU −11.1
–
–
Final
Alabama@#12Tennessee
23%
77%
13
16
✓
TENN −11.3
–
–
Final
Rice@UCF
44%
56%
40
29
✗
UCF −1.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
36%
64%
0
24
✓
WYO −5.2
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@Washington StateUpset
65%
35%
23
34
✗
ORE −6.8
–
–
Final
#13Boise State@Idaho
98%
1.7%
42
26
✓
BOIS −34.3
–
–
Final
#25Rutgers@#21Pittsburgh
41%
59%
20
10
✗
PITT −3.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
34%
66%
13
24
✓
AKR −6.2
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Marshall@UAB
26%
74%
31
24
✗
UAB −9.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
51%
49%
17
10
✓
ORST −0.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#16Oklahoma
13%
87%
3
24
✓
OU −17.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Houston
31%
68%
17
34
✓
HOU −7.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#22Virginia Tech
24%
76%
6
36
✓
VT −10.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Louisiana Tech
32%
68%
35
48
✓
LT −7.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana-Monroe
60%
40%
35
21
✓
MTSU −4.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Nevada
20%
80%
7
23
✓
NEV −13.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Oklahoma State
47%
53%
34
33
✗
OKST −0.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arkansas State
32%
68%
10
29
✓
ARST −7.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#9Clemson
21%
79%
7
31
✓
CLEM −12.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#5LSU
5.2%
95%
6
38
✓
LSU −25.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10West Virginia@UConn
85%
15%
37
11
✓
WVU −16.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Air Force@San Diego StateUpset
77%
23%
12
19
✗
AF −12.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@New Mexico State
82%
18%
49
30
✓
HAW −15.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Memphis
82%
18%
35
14
✓
TLSA −15.2
–
–

Mon, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
USF@Cincinnati
60%
40%
6
23
✗
USF −4.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 21 · 3:30 PM ET North Dakota State at Minnesota Minnesota −23.3 93%