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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 73 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 15.1 expected

  • Biggest shockMontana State over Colorado1.1% chance · won 19-10
  • Runner-upPortland State over New Mexico4.0% chance · won 17-6
  • Runner-upRichmond over Duke6.0% chance · won 13-0

Upsets

Thu, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#20Boston College@Central Michigan
63%
37%
31
24
✓
BC −5.4
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
Temple@Buffalo
42%
58%
3
9
✓
BUF −2.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
24%
76%
6
7
✓
MTSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Miami (OH)
42%
58%
21
3
✗
M-OH −2.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
44%
56%
20
38
✓
BALL −1.7
–
–
Final
#23Minnesota@Kent State
75%
25%
44
0
✓
MINN −10.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UTEP@San Diego State
40%
60%
34
27
✗
SDSU −3.4
–
–

Fri, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Toledo@Iowa State
38%
62%
43
45
✓
ISU −4.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Mississippi State
59%
41%
15
0
✓
SC −4.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
Idaho@Michigan State
2.7%
97%
17
27
✓
MSU −29.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#14Michigan
22%
78%
7
27
✓
MICH −11.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@#1Texas
3.8%
96%
7
56
✓
TEX −27.3
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Rutgers@North Carolina
40%
60%
21
16
✗
UNC −3.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Nebraska
32%
68%
10
49
✓
NEB −6.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#5Ohio State
21%
79%
12
35
✓
OSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Akron@#6Penn State
16%
84%
16
34
✓
PSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Clemson
12%
88%
6
54
✓
CLEM −17.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Washington
18%
82%
29
35
✓
WASH −13.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@#13West Virginia
16%
84%
10
42
✓
WVU −14.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@#15Oregon
27%
73%
10
48
✓
ORE −9.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wyoming
25%
75%
7
38
✓
WYO −10.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Navy
29%
71%
23
28
✓
NAVY −8.1
–
–
Final
#18California@TennesseeUpset
50%
50%
18
35
✗
CAL −0.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#16Florida
29%
71%
7
34
✓
FLA −8.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Indiana
42%
58%
20
39
✓
IU −2.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Wake Forest
31%
69%
10
20
✓
WAKE −7.0
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Utah@UCLA
38%
62%
10
31
✓
UCLA −4.3
–
–
Final
#21Wisconsin@Bowling Green
54%
46%
35
14
✓
WIS −2.2
–
–
Final
UAB@#17Oklahoma
25%
75%
17
24
✓
OU −9.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@Pittsburgh
47%
53%
13
38
✓
PITT −0.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#19Alabama
20%
80%
17
25
✓
ALA −12.3
–
–
Final
SMU@#12Texas Tech
18%
82%
3
35
✓
TTU −14.0
–
–
Final
Army@Arkansas State
48%
52%
6
14
✓
ARST −0.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#9Auburn
25%
75%
14
40
✓
AUB −9.9
–
–
Final
#2USC@Arkansas
72%
28%
50
14
✓
USC −9.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
57%
42%
31
30
✓
HOU −3.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
BYU@Arizona
46%
54%
13
16
✓
ARIZ −1.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Nevada@Fresno State
24%
76%
19
28
✓
FRES −10.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
50%
50%
25
28
✓
MEM −0.3
–
–
Final
#22TCU@Baylor
59%
41%
17
7
✓
TCU −4.0
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#10Notre Dame@Georgia Tech
55%
45%
14
10
✓
ND −2.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#8LSU
14%
86%
3
45
✓
LSU −16.3
–
–

Mon, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kentucky@#7Louisville
13%
87%
28
59
✓
LOU −17.1
–
–

Tue, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#25Florida State@#3Miami (FL)Upset
19%
81%
13
10
✗
MIA −12.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 31 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona State Arizona State −40.5 >99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET Rhode Island at UConn UConn −24.6 95%
Thu, Aug 31 · 9:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Boise State Boise State −20.2 91%
Thu, Aug 31 · 9:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at New Mexico State New Mexico State −16.5 86%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin vs Tulsa Tulsa −23.7 94%
Thu, Aug 31 · 10:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Oregon State Oregon State −32.4 98%
Fri, Sep 1 · TBD Alcorn State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −12.3 80%
Sat, Sep 2 · 5:00 PM ET Weber State vs Colorado State Colorado State −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET Montana State at Colorado Colorado −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at USF USF −31.3 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 12:30 PM ET Western Kentucky at #11 Georgia Georgia −16.0 86%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET William & Mary at Maryland Maryland −36.7 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Missouri Missouri −44.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET Richmond at Duke Duke −23.8 94%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET Appalachian State at NC State NC State −11.4 78%
Sat, Sep 2 · 8:30 PM ET Portland State at New Mexico New Mexico −27.0 96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Ohio Ohio −39.0 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −12.7 80%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET The Citadel at Texas A&M Texas A&M −35.7 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 1:30 PM ET Northeastern at #4 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET Villanova vs UCF UCF −23.4 94%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati Cincinnati −31.0 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 12:03 PM ET Montana at #24 Iowa Iowa −32.1 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Kansas Kansas −31.8 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:10 PM ET Illinois State at Kansas State Kansas State −36.0 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 10:00 PM ET Idaho State vs UNLV UNLV −22.9 93%
Sat, Sep 2 · 1:00 PM ET Indiana State at Purdue Purdue −44.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET Alabama State at Troy Troy −17.4 88%