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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2006

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 32

Wilder than 32% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Hampshire over Northwestern1.7% chance · won 34-17
  • Runner-upOhio over Northern Illinois15% chance · won 35-23
  • Runner-upAkron over NC State22% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Oregon State@Boise State
21%
78%
14
42
✓
BOIS −11.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Central Michigan@#18Michigan
13%
87%
17
41
✓
MICH −17.0
–
–
Final
Akron@NC StateUpset
22%
78%
20
17
✗
NCSU −11.3
–
–
Final
#7Virginia Tech@North Carolina
71%
29%
35
10
✓
VT −9.0
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
8.5%
92%
13
14
✓
WAKE −20.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Rutgers
16%
84%
0
33
✓
RUTG −15.1
–
–
Final
#9Louisville@Temple
91%
8.7%
62
0
✓
LOU −21.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Missouri
30%
70%
7
34
✓
MIZ −7.8
–
–
Final
#6Auburn@Mississippi State
84%
16%
34
0
✓
AUB −16.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Army
21%
79%
14
17
✓
ARMY −11.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Purdue
34%
66%
31
38
✓
PUR −5.8
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
17%
83%
40
48
✓
BGSU −14.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northern IllinoisUpset
15%
85%
35
23
✗
NIU −15.5
–
–
Final
#11Penn State@#17Notre Dame
41%
59%
17
41
✓
ND −3.1
–
–
Final
#19Clemson@#24Boston College
43%
57%
33
34
✓
BC −2.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State
18%
82%
20
52
✓
MSU −13.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Syracuse
67%
33%
20
13
✓
IOWA −7.2
–
–
Final
Washington@#25Oklahoma
15%
85%
20
37
✓
OU −15.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Virginia
42%
58%
12
13
✓
UVA −2.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Alabama
17%
83%
10
13
✓
ALA −14.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington State
3.7%
96%
10
56
✓
WSU −27.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@BYU
45%
55%
24
49
✓
BYU −1.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Colorado State
34%
66%
10
14
✓
CSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@San Jose State
63%
37%
34
35
✗
STAN −5.6
–
–
Final
Troy@#20Florida State
10%
90%
17
24
✓
FSU −19.4
–
–
Final
UCF@#14Florida
9.9%
90%
0
42
✓
FLA −19.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Maryland
27%
73%
10
24
✓
MD −9.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@#5LSU
12%
88%
3
45
✓
LSU −17.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@Ball State
44%
56%
24
23
✗
BALL −1.9
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
East Carolina@UAB
28%
72%
12
17
✓
UAB −8.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Arkansas
12%
88%
0
20
✓
ARK −17.7
–
–
Final
#15Minnesota@CaliforniaUpset
54%
46%
17
42
✗
MINN −2.1
–
–
Final
FIU@USF
9.8%
90%
20
21
✓
USF −19.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Iowa State
15%
85%
10
16
✓
ISU −15.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas A&M
17%
83%
7
51
✓
TA&M −14.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Houston
24%
76%
7
45
✓
HOU −10.2
–
–
Final
SMU@North Texas
49%
51%
6
24
✓
SMU −0.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Kansas
10%
90%
19
21
✓
KU −19.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@Tennessee
19%
81%
30
31
✓
TENN −13.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
64%
36%
10
31
✗
TOL −6.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Arkansas State
55%
45%
35
7
✓
OKST −2.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Kansas State
21%
79%
0
45
✓
KSU −12.2
–
–
Final
#8Georgia@South Carolina
58%
42%
18
0
✓
UGA −3.6
–
–
Final
#12Texas Tech@UTEP
63%
37%
38
35
✓
TTU −5.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Nevada@Arizona State
27%
73%
21
52
✓
ASU −9.1
–
–
Final
Rice@#21UCLA
7.3%
93%
16
26
✓
UCLA −22.2
–
–
Final
#10Oregon@Fresno State
53%
47%
31
24
✓
ORE −1.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
69%
31%
33
15
✓
PITT −7.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
52%
48%
34
28
✓
UNM −1.2
–
–
Final
#4Ohio State@#2Texas
26%
74%
24
7
✗
TEX −9.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Samford at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −41.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 2:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Northwestern Northwestern −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET Texas State at Kentucky Kentucky −6.3 67%
Sat, Sep 9 · 1:30 PM ET Nicholls at #22 Nebraska Nebraska −40.7 >99%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Chattanooga at Memphis Memphis −42.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State vs Baylor Baylor −28.0 97%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Northern Arizona at Utah Utah −40.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Western Illinois at #16 Wisconsin Wisconsin −45.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:30 PM ET Hofstra at Marshall Marshall −18.4 89%
Sat, Sep 9 · 1:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at #13 West Virginia West Virginia −50.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M vs #3 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −46.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 1:30 PM ET UMass at Navy Navy −10.6 76%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Southern Miss Southern Miss −31.7 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET UC Davis at #23 TCU TCU −32.7 98%