Week 9 slate, 2026
The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.
Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.
Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1
Chaos 41
Wilder than 41% of weeks in the archive.
12 upsets against 14.7 expected
- Biggest shockTroy over James Madison8.3% chance · won 24-21
- Runner-upWashington over Nebraska21% chance · won 17-10
- Runner-upUSC over Ohio State23% chance · won 30-18
Fallout
1.0 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.
Upsets
- Ohio State 18, USC 30USC won; the model gave them 23% before kickoff
- Washington 17, Nebraska 10Washington won; the model gave them 23% before kickoff
Most riding on it
Final MINN 16, IU 23
ModelIU −22.6MarketIU −20.5
Final AUB 15, MISS 45
ModelMISS −14.4MarketMISS −10.5
Final FLA 8, UGA 27
ModelUGA −13.1MarketUGA −11.5
Final UTAH 49, CIN 25
ModelUTAH −14.0MarketUTAH −7.0
Final TXST 45, BOIS 46
ModelBOIS −12.1MarketBOIS −10.5
Final MSST 3, TEX 31
ModelTEX −20.1MarketTEX −20.5
Final NEV 0, UCLA 27
ModelUCLA −31.8MarketUCLA −22.5
Final ASU 20, BYU 27
ModelBYU −19.4MarketBYU −17.5
#1Ohio State
#20USCFinal OSU 18, USC 30
ModelOSU −12.2MarketOSU −6.5
Final UVA 7, WAKE 51
ModelWAKE −13.4MarketWAKE −13.5
The 10 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.
No games match.
Sat, Oct 31
Early 4 games
81%
45
48%
23
33%
27
69%
20
Afternoon 20 games
48%
20
67%
17
93%
52
79%
27
91%
23
#24Northwestern@
#10Oregon72%
34
Arizona State@
#17BYU88%
27
94%
31
65%
31
36%
21
#12Utah@
Cincinnati20%
25
79%
51
19%
16
97%
27
#22South Carolina@
#18Oklahoma62%
25
79%
31
61%
19
Prime time 10 games
63%
24
53%
51
58%
26
23%
30
11%
35
89%
31
79%
34
28%
10
77%
10
Late night 3 games
77%
46
94%
31
46%
38
Played before this page was saved
| Day | Final | Model (entering the week) | Called it | Model miss | Market miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 27 | Delaware 35, Western Kentucky 21 | Western Kentucky −6.1 | ✗ | 20.1 | 16.5 |
| Tue, Oct 27 | Sam Houston 3, Missouri State 24 | Missouri State −5.1 | ✓ | 15.9 | 15.5 |
| Wed, Oct 28 | Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28 | Middle Tennessee −3.8 | ✗ | 19.8 | 14.5 |
| Wed, Oct 28 | Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0 | Jacksonville State −2.3 | ✓ | 21.7 | 21.0 |
| Thu, Oct 29 | Troy 24, James Madison 21 | James Madison −21.7 | ✗ | 24.7 | 20.5 |
| Thu, Oct 29 | Florida Atlantic 41, North Texas 48 | North Texas −14.8 | ✓ | 7.8 | 8.5 |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Tulane 38, Charlotte 31 | Tulane −16.2 | ✓ | 9.2 | 1.5 |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Baylor 41, UCF 9 | Baylor −1.6 | ✓ | 30.4 | 29.5 |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Kent State 10, Sacramento State 31 | Kent State −4.0 | ✗ | 25.0 | 28.5 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Notre Dame 35, Navy 13 | Notre Dame −34.8 | ✓ | 12.8 | 8.5 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Arizona 26, Texas Tech 34 | Texas Tech −5.4 | ✓ | 2.6 | 4.0 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Wisconsin 0, Iowa 30 | Iowa −3.8 | ✓ | 26.2 | 27.5 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | SMU 27, Syracuse 30 | SMU −9.5 | ✗ | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Boston College 2, Duke 47 | Duke −12.6 | ✓ | 32.4 | 38.0 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Illinois 20, Maryland 17 | Illinois −4.4 | ✓ | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | UAB 10, USF 30 | USF −17.5 | ✓ | 2.5 | 12.5 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | California 10, NC State 31 | NC State −10.2 | ✓ | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Bowling Green 10, Western Michigan 23 | Western Michigan −21.9 | ✓ | 8.9 | 1.0 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Michigan 28, Rutgers 21 | Michigan −13.8 | ✓ | 6.8 | 9.5 |