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2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 99

Wilder than 99% of weeks in the archive.

22 upsets against 16.4 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana-Monroe over Troy11% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Texas Tech15% chance · won 37-24
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over TCU17% chance · won 24-20

Fallout

1.6 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

LSU +19Indiana +18Utah +13Texas Tech -26BYU -23Oregon -23

Upsets

Most riding on it

Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

#14BYUUCF

Final BYU 31, UCF 39

ModelBYU −14.0MarketBYU −7.5

BYU playoff odds
L 27%now 56%W 63%

Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

#9Indiana#25Michigan

Final IU 13, MICH 6

ModelIU −5.7MarketIU −7.5

Indiana playoff odds
L 32%now 54%W 67%

Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET

#8Ole Miss#6Texas

Final MISS 27, TEX 34

ModelTEX −7.3MarketTEX −3.0

Ole Miss playoff odds
L 44%now 56%W 80%

Sat, Oct 24 · 10:15 PM ET

#23Houston#12Utah

Final HOU 13, UTAH 21

ModelUTAH −9.5MarketUTAH −6.5

Utah playoff odds
L 23%now 48%W 58%

Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

#11Tennessee#22South Carolina

Final TENN 24, SC 27

ModelTENN −3.0MarketSC −2.5

Tennessee playoff odds
L 30%now 48%W 63%

Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

#18Texas A&M#4Alabama

Final TA&M 20, ALA 31

ModelALA −16.1MarketALA −13.5

Alabama playoff odds
L 52%now 79%W 85%

Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

Michigan State#16UCLA

Final MSU 10, UCLA 28

ModelUCLA −20.0MarketUCLA −16.5

UCLA playoff odds
L 19%now 47%W 51%

Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

#13Texas TechCincinnati

Final TTU 24, CIN 37

ModelTTU −16.8MarketTTU −10.5

Texas Tech playoff odds
L 24%now 51%W 56%

Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

#7LSU#24Auburn

Final LSU 38, AUB 17

ModelLSU −6.8MarketLSU −7.0

LSU playoff odds
L 20%now 40%W 51%

Sat, Oct 24 · 6:00 PM ET

Boise StateWashington State

Final BOIS 31, WSU 10

ModelBOIS −12.4MarketBOIS −14.5

Boise State playoff odds
L 27%now 50%W 57%

The 10 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Sat, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 12 games

Final
Pittsburgh@#5Miami (FL)
7.3%
93%
23
52
✓
MIA −23.9
MIA −20.5open MIA −23.5
0.4 → MIA
MIA playoff odds
L 72%now 90%W 91%
Final
#7LSU@#24Auburn
66%
34%
38
17
✓
LSU −6.8
LSU −7.0open LSU −6.5
0.3 → LSU
LSU playoff odds
L 20%now 40%W 51%
Final
#9Indiana@#25Michigan
63%
37%
13
6
✓
IU −5.7
IU −7.5open IU −6.0
0.3 → MICH
IU playoff odds
L 32%now 54%W 67%
Final
#13Texas Tech@CincinnatiUpset
84%
16%
24
37
✗
TTU −16.8
TTU −10.5open TTU −11.5
5.3 → TTU
TTU playoff odds
L 24%now 51%W 56%
Final
Rutgers@Northwestern
11%
89%
14
42
✓
NU −20.0
NU −15.5open NU −16.5
3.5 → NU
NU playoff odds
L 0.4%now 3.9%W 4.4%
Final
California@SMU
16%
84%
20
59
✓
SMU −16.8
SMU −18.5open SMU −16.5
0.3 → SMU
SMU playoff odds
L 2.1%now 7.6%W 8.6%
Final
West Virginia@TCUUpset
19%
81%
24
20
✗
TCU −14.6
TCU −10.0open TCU −7.0
7.6 → TCU
Little playoff impact
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
45%
55%
38
45
✓
TOL −1.9
TOL −2.5open TOL −1.5
0.4 → TOL
Little playoff impact
Final
Rice@Florida Atlantic
25%
75%
49
51
✓
FAU −10.9
FAU −10.0open FAU −10.5
0.4 → FAU
Little playoff impact
Final
Baylor@Kansas
61%
39%
24
25
✗
BAY −4.6
KU −1.5open BAY −1.5
3.1 → BAY
BAY playoff odds
L 0.1%now 1.4%W 2.2%
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
51%
49%
28
27
✓
M-OH −0.6
M-OH −3.5open CMU −1.5
2.1 → M-OH
Little playoff impact
Final
Akron@Kent State
38%
62%
20
35
✓
KENT −5.1
KENT −3.0open KENT −3.5
1.6 → KENT
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 20 games

Final
#10Oregon@IllinoisUpset
82%
18%
10
21
✗
ORE −14.9
ORE −10.0open ORE −12.5
2.4 → ORE
ORE playoff odds
L 12%now 36%W 41%
Final
#18Texas A&M@#4Alabama
16%
84%
20
31
✓
ALA −16.1
ALA −13.5open ALA −2.5
13.6 → ALA
ALA playoff odds
L 52%now 79%W 85%
Final
#11Tennessee@#22South Carolina
57%
43%
24
27
✗
TENN −3.0
SC −2.5open TENN −2.5
0.5 → TENN
TENN playoff odds
L 30%now 48%W 63%
Final
#14BYU@UCFUpset
80%
20%
31
39
✗
BYU −14.0
BYU −7.5open BYU −9.5
4.5 → BYU
BYU playoff odds
L 27%now 56%W 63%
Final
Michigan State@#16UCLA
11%
89%
10
28
✓
UCLA −20.0
UCLA −16.5open UCLA −13.5
6.5 → UCLA
UCLA playoff odds
L 19%now 47%W 51%
Final
#20Oklahoma@Mississippi State
52%
48%
23
15
✓
OU −1.0
OU −1.5
0.5 → MSST
OU playoff odds
L 2.0%now 6.9%W 11%
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
67%
33%
10
13
✗
IOWA −7.2
IOWA −7.5open IOWA −4.5
2.7 → IOWA
IOWA playoff odds
L 3.5%now 13%W 17%
Final
North Texas@Navy
54%
46%
49
39
✓
UNT −1.9
UNT −3.0open UNT −1.5
0.4 → UNT
UNT playoff odds
L 0.3%now 2.1%W 3.6%
Final
Boston College@Georgia Tech
28%
72%
49
27
✗
GT −9.7
GT −6.5open GT −4.5
5.2 → GT
Little playoff impact
Final
Hawaii@Northern Illinois
67%
33%
56
21
✓
HAW −7.3
HAW −3.0open HAW −7.5
0.2 → NIU
Little playoff impact
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
39%
61%
24
31
✓
BUF −4.8
BUF −3.0open BUF −4.5
0.3 → BUF
Little playoff impact
Final
Sacramento State@Ball State
39%
61%
17
34
✓
BALL −4.8
BALL −14.5open BALL −9.5
4.7 → SAC
Little playoff impact
Final
Kansas State@Arizona State
64%
36%
17
28
✗
KSU −6.0
KSU −1.5open KSU −3.0
3.0 → KSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
19%
82%
20
24
✓
OHIO −14.8
OHIO −9.5
5.3 → OHIO
Little playoff impact
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@TroyUpset
12%
88%
21
14
✗
TROY −19.7
TROY −12.5open TROY −17.5
2.2 → TROY
Little playoff impact
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
73%
27%
31
35
✗
UL −10.1
UL −10.0open UL −10.5
0.4 → USM
Little playoff impact
Final
Old Dominion@Louisiana Tech
19%
81%
0
26
✓
LT −14.4
LT −13.5open LT −8.5
5.9 → LT
Little playoff impact
Final
San Jose State@Nevada
45%
55%
13
28
✓
NEV −2.1
NEV −5.5
3.4 → SJSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Boise State@Washington State
77%
23%
31
10
✓
BOIS −12.4
BOIS −14.5open BOIS −14.0
1.6 → WSU
BOIS playoff odds
L 27%now 50%W 57%
Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
55%
45%
49
56
✗
SDSU −2.0
SDSU −1.5open SDSU −3.0
1.0 → CSU
Little playoff impact

Prime time 10 games

Final
Virginia Tech@Clemson
33%
67%
20
16
✗
CLEM −7.4
CLEM −3.0open VT −1.5
8.9 → CLEM
Little playoff impact
Final
Colorado@Oklahoma State
33%
67%
24
57
✓
OKST −7.4
OKST −13.5open OKST −14.5
7.1 → COLO
Little playoff impact
Final
Georgia State@Arkansas State
46%
54%
32
38
✓
ARST −1.7
GAST −2.5open GAST −1.5
3.2 → ARST
Little playoff impact
Final
#8Ole Miss@#6Texas
33%
67%
27
34
✓
TEX −7.3
TEX −3.0open TEX −8.5
1.2 → MISS
MISS playoff odds
L 44%now 56%W 80%
Final
#15USC@WisconsinUpset
63%
37%
7
24
✗
USC −5.6
USC −3.0open USC −1.5
4.1 → USC
USC playoff odds
L 9.8%now 25%W 34%
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
22%
78%
17
34
✓
UK −12.8
UK −10.5open UK −9.5
3.3 → UK
UK playoff odds
L 7.4%now 25%W 30%
Final
Iowa State@Arizona
24%
76%
3
39
✓
ARIZ −11.6
ARIZ −12.5open ARIZ −10.0
1.6 → ARIZ
ARIZ playoff odds
L 0.4%now 4.0%W 5.1%
Final
Syracuse@North Carolina
26%
74%
31
30
✗
UNC −10.6
UNC −9.5
1.1 → UNC
Little playoff impact
Final
Utah State@Texas State
17%
83%
17
20
✓
TXST −15.5
TXST −13.5open TXST −9.5
6.0 → TXST
Little playoff impact
Final
UTSA@Tulane
51%
49%
42
19
✓
UTSA −0.5
UTSA −3.0open UTSA −4.0
3.5 → TULN
UTSA playoff odds
L 6.5%now 15%W 22%

Late night 2 games

Final
North Dakota State@New Mexico
21%
79%
16
21
✓
UNM −13.1
UNM −4.5open UNM −3.5
9.6 → UNM
UNM playoff odds
L 0.9%now 5.9%W 7.3%
Final
#23Houston@#12Utah
28%
72%
13
21
✓
UTAH −9.5
UTAH −6.5
3.0 → UTAH
UTAH playoff odds
L 23%now 48%W 58%

Played before this page was saved

DayFinalModel (entering the week)Called it Model missMarket miss
Tue, Oct 20Middle Tennessee 26, FIU 23 FIU −13.4 ✗16.413.5
Tue, Oct 20Missouri State 38, Delaware 61 Delaware −3.9 ✓19.120.0
Tue, Oct 20South Alabama 13, Marshall 20 South Alabama −3.7 ✗10.78.5
Wed, Oct 21New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24 Sam Houston −2.5 ✗8.53.0
Thu, Oct 22James Madison 31, Appalachian State 34 James Madison −13.8 ✗16.815.5
Thu, Oct 22Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6 Liberty −9.6 ✓18.419.5
Thu, Oct 22East Carolina 34, Memphis 41 Memphis −11.7 ✓4.73.5
Fri, Oct 23Duke 19, Virginia 16 Pick'em ✗3.05.5
Fri, Oct 23UMass 16, UConn 35 UConn −14.9 ✓4.16.5
Fri, Oct 23Army 38, Tulsa 35 Army −6.5 ✓3.51.5
Fri, Oct 23Air Force 14, Wyoming 28 Air Force −11.2 ✗25.221.0
Fri, Oct 23NC State 28, Stanford 31 NC State −7.6 ✗10.610.5