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2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 37

Wilder than 37% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockBowling Green over Miami (OH)15% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upTemple over USF17% chance · won 17-13
  • Runner-upPurdue over Illinois21% chance · won 24-17

Fallout

1.3 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

Miami (FL) +14Indiana +12Texas Tech +10Florida -33LSU -13USF -13

Upsets

Most riding on it

Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET

#9FloridaMissouri

Final FLA 17, MIZ 45

ModelFLA −8.6MarketFLA −5.5

Florida playoff odds
L 36%now 58%W 68%

Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET

#7Miami (FL)Clemson

Final MIA 41, CLEM 13

ModelMIA −11.3MarketMIA −15.5

Miami (FL) playoff odds
L 51%now 73%W 81%

Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET

#3Ohio State#25Iowa

Final OSU 31, IOWA 14

ModelOSU −15.9MarketOSU −14.5

Ohio State playoff odds
L 55%now 79%W 84%

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET

#5Alabama#20Mississippi State

Final ALA 56, MSST 23

ModelALA −11.3MarketALA −5.5

Mississippi State playoff odds
L 14%now 21%W 42%

Sat, Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET

#16BYUTCU

Final BYU 17, TCU 10

ModelBYU −9.4MarketBYU −6.0

BYU playoff odds
L 12%now 30%W 38%

Sat, Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET

#11IndianaRutgers

Final IU 47, RUTG 15

ModelIU −20.8MarketIU −24.5

Indiana playoff odds
L 14%now 37%W 40%

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET

#2Notre DameNorth Carolina

Final ND 37, UNC 26

ModelND −28.9MarketND −21.0

Notre Dame playoff odds
L 67%now 92%W 93%

Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET

#19Texas TechColorado

Final TTU 29, COLO 7

ModelTTU −16.8MarketTTU −13.5

Texas Tech playoff odds
L 12%now 32%W 36%

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:45 PM ET

Vanderbilt#1Georgia

Final VAN 14, UGA 38

ModelUGA −27.8MarketUGA −25.5

Georgia playoff odds
L 68%now 90%W 91%

Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET

Utah StateBoise State

Final USU 18, BOIS 37

ModelBOIS −20.7MarketBOIS −18.5

Boise State playoff odds
L 8.9%now 28%W 31%

The 10 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 15 games

Final
Memphis@Charlotte
86%
14%
59
8
✓
MEM −18.0
MEM −18.5open MEM −21.5
3.5 → CLT
Little playoff impact
Final
#2Notre Dame@North Carolina
96%
4.0%
37
26
✓
ND −28.9
ND −21.0open ND −23.5
5.4 → ND
ND playoff odds
L 67%now 92%W 93%
Final
#5Alabama@#20Mississippi State
75%
25%
56
23
✓
ALA −11.3
ALA −5.5open ALA −3.0
8.3 → ALA
MSST playoff odds
L 14%now 21%W 42%
Final
#18Michigan@MinnesotaUpset
68%
32%
14
20
✗
MICH −7.6
MICH −6.5open MICH −8.5
0.9 → MINN
MICH playoff odds
L 4.3%now 14%W 18%
Final
UCF@Houston
25%
75%
17
27
✓
HOU −11.2
HOU −10.5open HOU −12.5
1.3 → UCF
HOU playoff odds
L 0.5%now 4.4%W 5.8%
Final
Boston College@SMU
8.6%
91%
16
25
✓
SMU −22.6
SMU −21.5open SMU −21.0
1.6 → SMU
SMU playoff odds
L 1.4%now 6.8%W 7.4%
Final
West Virginia@Iowa State
27%
73%
42
45
✓
ISU −10.1
ISU −3.0open ISU −1.5
8.6 → ISU
Little playoff impact
Final
Stanford@Wake Forest
23%
77%
3
57
✓
WAKE −12.3
WAKE −14.5open WAKE −12.5
0.2 → STAN
Little playoff impact
Final
Middle Tennessee@Kansas
15%
85%
0
55
✓
KU −16.9
KU −21.5
4.6 → MTSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Syracuse@UConn
50%
50%
42
41
✓
SYR −0.2
SYR −6.5
6.3 → CONN
Little playoff impact
Final
Navy@Air Force
47%
53%
9
14
✓
AF −1.3
AF −3.0open AF −1.5
0.2 → NAVY
Little playoff impact
Final
Michigan State@Wisconsin
34%
66%
3
31
✓
WIS −6.9
WIS −8.5open WIS −10.0
3.1 → MSU
WIS playoff odds
L 0.5%now 2.8%W 4.0%
Final
Vanderbilt@#1Georgia
4.6%
95%
14
38
✓
UGA −27.8
UGA −25.5open UGA −23.5
4.3 → UGA
UGA playoff odds
L 68%now 90%W 91%
Final
Western Michigan@Buffalo
90%
9.9%
20
17
✓
WMU −21.3
WMU −13.5open WMU −16.5
4.8 → WMU
Little playoff impact
Final
Toledo@Ball State
92%
8.2%
39
24
✓
TOL −22.9
TOL −21.0open TOL −17.5
5.4 → TOL
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 18 games

Final
#3Ohio State@#25Iowa
83%
17%
31
14
✓
OSU −15.9
OSU −14.5open OSU −14.0
1.9 → OSU
OSU playoff odds
L 55%now 79%W 84%
Final
#9Florida@MissouriUpset
70%
30%
17
45
✗
FLA −8.6
FLA −5.5open FLA −2.5
6.1 → FLA
FLA playoff odds
L 36%now 58%W 68%
Final
#24Auburn@#14Tennessee
30%
70%
14
24
✓
TENN −8.8
TENN −6.5open TENN −7.5
1.3 → TENN
TENN playoff odds
L 6.7%now 19%W 24%
Final
Louisville@NC State
55%
45%
28
31
✗
LOU −2.2
LOU −3.5open LOU −7.5
5.3 → NCSU
LOU playoff odds
L 0.9%now 5.0%W 8.2%
Final
Virginia@Florida State
43%
57%
7
38
✓
FSU −2.9
UVA −1.5
4.4 → FSU
UVA playoff odds
L 2.0%now 4.5%W 7.8%
Final
California@UNLV
48%
52%
31
39
✓
UNLV −0.9
UNLV −1.5
0.6 → CAL
Little playoff impact
Final
Wyoming@North Dakota State
19%
81%
0
28
✓
NDSU −14.8
NDSU −17.5open NDSU −21.0
6.2 → WYO
Little playoff impact
Final
Ohio@Kent State
68%
32%
13
10
✓
OHIO −7.8
OHIO −3.5open OHIO −5.5
2.3 → OHIO
Little playoff impact
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)Upset
14%
86%
24
20
✗
M-OH −17.8
M-OH −10.5open M-OH −15.5
2.3 → M-OH
Little playoff impact
Final
Old Dominion@Georgia State
34%
66%
10
42
✓
GAST −6.8
GAST −2.5open ODU −1.5
8.3 → GAST
Little playoff impact
Final
Eastern Michigan@UMass
31%
69%
38
14
✗
MASS −8.0
MASS −5.5open MASS −2.5
5.5 → MASS
Little playoff impact
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
41%
59%
17
41
✓
CMU −3.6
CMU −7.0open CMU −5.5
1.9 → AKR
Little playoff impact
Final
Marshall@James Madison
14%
86%
17
45
✓
JMU −17.7
JMU −15.5open JMU −13.5
4.2 → JMU
JMU playoff odds
L 3.4%now 14%W 16%
Final
Maryland@#23Nebraska
17%
83%
23
48
✓
NEB −15.7
NEB −15.5open NEB −12.5
3.2 → NEB
NEB playoff odds
L 2.2%now 9.8%W 12%
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
4.3%
96%
7
61
✓
UNM −28.4
UNM −23.5open UNM −21.0
7.4 → UNM
UNM playoff odds
L <0.1%now 3.1%W 3.2%
Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
35%
65%
35
34
✗
SC −6.4
SC −2.5open SC −7.0
0.6 → UK
UK playoff odds
L 1.1%now 3.1%W 6.9%
Final
Purdue@IllinoisUpset
21%
79%
24
17
✗
ILL −13.4
ILL −9.5open ILL −10.0
3.4 → ILL
Little playoff impact
Final
Oregon State@Colorado State
53%
47%
56
26
✓
ORST −1.4
ORST −7.0open ORST −3.5
2.1 → CSU
Little playoff impact

Prime time 14 games

Final
Arkansas@#12Texas A&M
8.7%
91%
7
34
✓
TA&M −22.5
TA&M −14.0open TA&M −14.5
7.9 → TA&M
TA&M playoff odds
L 1.9%now 11%W 12%
Final
#16BYU@TCU
72%
28%
17
10
✓
BYU −9.4
BYU −6.0open BYU −5.5
3.9 → BYU
BYU playoff odds
L 12%now 30%W 38%
Final
UTSA@Rice
85%
15%
16
14
✓
UTSA −17.1
UTSA −12.5
4.6 → UTSA
UTSA playoff odds
L 4.5%now 17%W 19%
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@South Alabama
12%
88%
35
52
✓
USA −19.3
USA −13.5open USA −14.5
4.8 → USA
Little playoff impact
Final
Georgia Southern@Coastal Carolina
57%
43%
31
24
✓
GASO −2.8
GASO −1.5open CCU −1.5
4.3 → GASO
Little playoff impact
Final
#7Miami (FL)@Clemson
75%
25%
41
13
✓
MIA −11.3
MIA −15.5open MIA −7.0
4.3 → MIA
MIA playoff odds
L 51%now 73%W 81%
Final
Washington@#13USC
20%
80%
21
25
✓
USC −13.7
USC −7.5open USC −10.0
3.7 → USC
USC playoff odds
L 6.9%now 22%W 26%
Final
#19Texas Tech@Colorado
84%
16%
29
7
✓
TTU −16.8
TTU −13.5open TTU −14.5
2.3 → TTU
TTU playoff odds
L 12%now 32%W 36%
Final
Utah State@Boise State
10%
90%
18
37
✓
BOIS −20.7
BOIS −18.5open BOIS −20.5
0.2 → BOIS
BOIS playoff odds
L 8.9%now 28%W 31%
Final
Temple@USFUpset
16%
84%
17
13
✗
USF −16.4
USF −5.5open USF −6.5
10.0 → USF
USF playoff odds
L 4.8%now 17%W 20%
Final
Army@Louisiana Tech
68%
32%
29
31
✗
ARMY −7.7
ARMY −1.5open ARMY −3.5
4.2 → ARMY
ARMY playoff odds
L 1.3%now 5.5%W 7.6%
Final
#11Indiana@Rutgers
90%
10%
47
15
✓
IU −20.8
IU −24.5open IU −23.5
2.7 → RUTG
IU playoff odds
L 14%now 37%W 40%
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
23%
77%
20
23
✓
UL −12.2
UL −6.0open UL −4.0
8.2 → UL
Little playoff impact
Final
Fresno State@Washington State
49%
51%
26
6
✗
WSU −0.6
WSU −1.5
0.9 → FRES
FRES playoff odds
L 1.0%now 3.6%W 6.4%

Late night 4 games

Final
Baylor@Arizona State
54%
46%
55
19
✓
BAY −1.6
ASU −3.5
5.1 → BAY
BAY playoff odds
L 0.8%now 3.3%W 5.4%
Final
Texas State@San Diego State
57%
43%
29
31
✗
TXST −2.8
TXST −9.5open TXST −4.5
1.7 → SDSU
TXST playoff odds
L 0.6%now 2.4%W 3.8%
Final
Cincinnati@Arizona
28%
72%
7
34
✓
ARIZ −9.8
ARIZ −7.0open ARIZ −8.5
1.3 → ARIZ
ARIZ playoff odds
L 0.1%now 2.0%W 2.7%
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
41%
59%
20
16
✗
HAW −3.8
HAW −2.5open HAW −5.5
1.7 → SJSU
Little playoff impact

Played before this page was saved

DayFinalModel (entering the week)Called it Model missMarket miss
Thu, Oct 1Western Kentucky 13, New Mexico State 34 Western Kentucky −6.2 ✗27.219.5
Thu, Oct 1North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 North Texas −4.6 ✓3.62.0
Fri, Oct 2Pittsburgh 35, Virginia Tech 33 Pittsburgh −2.0 ✓0.03.5
Fri, Oct 2Liberty 30, Delaware 14 Liberty −3.4 ✓12.69.0
Fri, Oct 2Penn State 13, Northwestern 34 Penn State −1.2 ✗22.224.0

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET Samford at UAB UAB −25.9 94%
Sat, Oct 3 · 6:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −30.5 97%
Sat, Oct 3 · 7:45 PM ET McNeese at #6 LSU LSU −61.3 >99%