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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 86 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 67

Wilder than 67% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockOklahoma State over Oregon0.6% chance · won 39-31
  • Runner-upMontana State over Nevada8.3% chance · won 20-7
  • Runner-upIllinois State over Northern Illinois20% chance · won 28-24

Fallout

1.4 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

Alabama +15USF +14Tennessee +12Oregon -43Washington -11Oklahoma -9

Upsets

Fri, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Rutgers@Boston College
46%
54%
21
28
✓
BC −1.7
BC −3.0open BC −3.5
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
63%
37%
38
21
✓
MIZ −5.6
MIZ −4.0open MIZ −7.0
–

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
#13Oklahoma@#17Michigan
50%
50%
10
17
✓
MICH −0.1
OU −5.5open MICH −1.5
–
Final
Arizona State@#7Texas A&M
4.4%
96%
20
48
✓
TA&M −28.1
TA&M −15.5open TA&M −14.5
–
Final
Washington State@Kansas State
28%
72%
7
34
✓
KSU −9.9
KSU −17.5open KSU −16.5
–
Final
#4Oregon@Oklahoma StateUpset
99%
0.8%
31
39
✗
ORE −39.8
ORE −24.5open ORE −18.5
–
Final
Old Dominion@Virginia Tech
18%
82%
21
44
✓
VT −15.3
VT −17.5open VT −14.0
–
Final
Wake Forest@Purdue
54%
46%
38
36
✓
WAKE −1.8
WAKE −2.5open WAKE −3.5
–
Final
#18Penn State@Temple
91%
9.0%
27
9
✓
PSU −22.1
PSU −24.5open PSU −21.5
–
Final
USF@Army
52%
48%
28
24
✓
USF −0.6
ARMY −3.0open ARMY −1.5
–
Final
Appalachian State@East Carolina
28%
72%
27
24
✗
ECU −9.6
ECU −6.5open ECU −11.5
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#5Georgia
0.5%
>99%
20
70
✓
UGA −43.0
UGA −40.5open UGA −35.5
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
#8Alabama@Kentucky
87%
13%
45
17
✓
ALA −18.3
ALA −9.5open ALA −10.5
–
Final
Mississippi State@Minnesota
50%
50%
38
13
✗
MINN −0.2
MSST −1.5open MINN −2.5
–
Final
UCF@Pittsburgh
17%
83%
7
12
✓
PITT −15.9
PITT −7.5open PITT −8.5
–
Final
Arizona@#22BYU
25%
75%
17
28
✓
BYU −11.2
BYU −6.5
–
Final
California@Syracuse
39%
61%
21
18
✗
SYR −4.6
SYR −4.0open CAL −1.5
–
Final
Duke@Illinois
32%
68%
31
27
✗
ILL −7.8
ILL −6.0open ILL −8.5
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State
20%
80%
7
35
✓
MSU −14.0
MSU −17.5open MSU −15.5
–
Final
Maryland@UConn
66%
34%
38
14
✓
MD −6.8
MD −11.5open MD −12.5
–
Final
Utah State@#19Washington
1.7%
98%
14
16
✓
WASH −35.0
WASH −28.5open WASH −24.5
–
Final
Rice@#1Notre Dame
0.1%
>99%
0
52
✓
ND −52.2
ND −44.5
–
Final
UTSA@Texas State
52%
48%
31
26
✓
UTSA −0.9
TXST −1.5
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UAB
19%
81%
20
26
✓
UAB −14.6
UAB −9.5open UAB −7.5
–
Final
UNLV@North Texas
50%
50%
6
44
✓
UNT −0.2
UNLV −3.0open UNLV −6.5
–
Final
Delaware@Vanderbilt
6.4%
94%
26
35
✓
VAN −25.1
VAN −20.5open VAN −21.5
–
Final
Memphis@Boise State
26%
74%
20
38
✓
BOIS −10.4
BOIS −9.5open BOIS −6.5
–
Final
Buffalo@FIU
15%
86%
20
33
✓
FIU −17.5
FIU −8.5open FIU −10.5
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Ohio
28%
72%
27
29
✓
OHIO −9.6
OHIO −1.5open OHIO −2.5
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
#23Tennessee@Georgia Tech
65%
35%
45
24
✓
TENN −6.5
TENN −12.5open TENN −8.5
–
Final
Bowling Green@#25Nebraska
1.0%
99%
7
56
✓
NEB −38.3
NEB −30.5open NEB −25.5
–
Final
Tulsa@Sam Houston
57%
43%
23
17
✓
TLSA −2.7
TLSA −12.5open TLSA −10.5
–
Final
South Alabama@Tulane
25%
75%
24
28
✓
TULN −11.1
TULN −9.5open TULN −10.0
–
Final
Georgia State@Kennesaw State
35%
65%
31
17
✗
KENN −6.3
KENN −7.5open KENN −9.5
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Marshall
15%
85%
26
28
✓
MRSH −17.1
MRSH −11.5open MRSH −17.5
–
Final
San Diego State@UCLA
24%
76%
10
28
✓
UCLA −11.4
UCLA −13.5open UCLA −8.5
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#3Texas
42%
58%
23
24
✓
TEX −3.2
TEX −2.5open TEX −1.5
–
Final
#21Texas Tech@Oregon State
86%
14%
35
24
✓
TTU −18.2
TTU −25.5open TTU −27.5
–
Final
Iowa State@#24Iowa
12%
88%
13
16
✓
IOWA −19.1
IOWA −14.0open IOWA −11.5
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Clemson
7.0%
93%
7
22
✓
CLEM −24.4
CLEM −20.5open CLEM −26.5
–
Final
Navy@Florida Atlantic
62%
38%
30
38
✗
NAVY −4.8
NAVY −4.5open NAVY −6.5
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#9LSU
2.3%
98%
14
45
✓
LSU −33.1
LSU −34.5open LSU −31.5
–
Final
Southern Miss@Auburn
12%
88%
8
43
✓
AUB −19.2
AUB −32.5open AUB −29.5
–
Final
Charlotte@#12Ole Miss
0.1%
>99%
9
41
✓
MISS −49.6
MISS −44.5open MISS −46.5
–

Late night 5 games

Final
North Dakota State@Air ForceUpset
24%
76%
38
32
✗
AF −11.8
NDSU −1.5open NDSU −6.5
–
Final
Arkansas@#16Utah
8.9%
91%
10
43
✓
UTAH −22.2
UTAH −13.5open UTAH −9.5
–
Final
Sacramento State@Fresno State
44%
56%
3
49
✓
FRES −2.6
FRES −17.5open FRES −18.5
–
Final
Louisiana@#10USC
2.4%
98%
30
49
✓
USC −32.6
USC −30.5open USC −28.5
–
Final
New Mexico State@Hawaii
23%
77%
19
29
✓
HAW −12.4
HAW −7.5open HAW −11.5
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 10 · 8:00 PM ET Florida A&M at #6 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −65.0 >99%
Fri, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Villanova at Louisville Louisville −47.2 >99%
Fri, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Norfolk State at Virginia Virginia −45.4 >99%
Fri, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at NC State NC State −40.6 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET East Tennessee State at North Carolina North Carolina −37.6 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Howard at #11 Indiana Indiana −58.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Wofford at Kent State Kent State −17.3 85%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Wagner at James Madison James Madison −35.4 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Liberty Liberty −27.6 95%
Sat, Sep 12 · 1:00 PM ET UT Martin at West Virginia West Virginia −31.3 97%
Sat, Sep 12 · 1:00 PM ET Colgate at Central Michigan Central Michigan −20.3 89%
Sat, Sep 12 · 1:00 PM ET Holy Cross at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −23.0 92%
Sat, Sep 12 · 2:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Ball State Ball State −15.8 83%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Weber State at Colorado Colorado −36.6 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Robert Morris at Akron Akron −23.1 92%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Central Connecticut at Toledo Toledo −35.7 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET Sacred Heart at UMass UMass −15.8 83%
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET UC Davis at #20 SMU SMU −51.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Wyoming Wyoming −17.7 86%
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET Mercyhurst at New Mexico New Mexico −34.9 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET Alabama State at Troy Troy −26.1 94%
Sat, Sep 12 · 5:30 PM ET Campbell at #14 Florida Florida −56.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:30 PM ET Monmouth at Western Michigan Western Michigan −40.6 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Towson at #15 South Carolina South Carolina −54.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Cincinnati Cincinnati −36.3 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Southern at Houston Houston −44.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Colorado State Colorado State −28.4 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Illinois State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −18.8 87%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET West Georgia at Arkansas State Arkansas State −24.4 93%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET Lindenwood at Missouri State Missouri State −23.3 92%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:15 PM ET Western Illinois at Wisconsin Wisconsin −39.8 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM ET Fordham at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −22.0 91%
Sat, Sep 12 · 8:00 PM ET Grambling at TCU TCU −40.8 99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 8:08 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Baylor Baylor −43.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 12 · 9:00 PM ET Cal Poly at San Jose State San Jose State −30.4 97%
Sat, Sep 12 · 9:00 PM ET Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP −15.8 83%
Sat, Sep 12 · 10:30 PM ET Montana State at Nevada Nevada −29.3 96%