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2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 17.5 expected

  • Biggest shockAuburn over Georgia6.0% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upCharlotte over Temple9.2% chance · won 38-31
  • Runner-upFlorida over Texas15% chance · won 27-24

Fallout

1.5 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

Tennessee +28Ole Miss +22BYU +19Oklahoma -19Alabama -17Missouri -16

Upsets

Most riding on it

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET

#4Ohio State#8Indiana

Final OSU 19, IU 15

ModelOSU −5.6MarketOSU −3.0

Indiana playoff odds
L 49%now 61%W 83%

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET

Wisconsin#18UCLA

Final WIS 7, UCLA 17

ModelUCLA −10.9MarketUCLA −1.5

UCLA playoff odds
L 21%now 45%W 54%

Sat, Oct 17 · 10:15 PM ET

#9UtahColorado

Final UTAH 27, COLO 24

ModelUTAH −22.3MarketUTAH −14.5

Utah playoff odds
L 27%now 56%W 59%

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET

Arizona State#16Texas Tech

Final ASU 25, TTU 53

ModelTTU −21.6MarketTTU −16.5

Texas Tech playoff odds
L 15%now 42%W 46%

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET

#14Missouri#11Ole Miss

Final MIZ 3, MISS 31

ModelMISS −5.3MarketMISS −4.0

Missouri playoff odds
L 13%now 25%W 43%

Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 PM ET

#20Nebraska#7Oregon

Final NEB 14, ORE 17

ModelORE −10.7MarketORE −7.0

Oregon playoff odds
L 12%now 34%W 41%

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET

#2Alabama#15Tennessee

Final ALA 10, TENN 26

ModelALA −10.8MarketALA −7.5

Tennessee playoff odds
L 15%now 22%W 43%

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET

#3Notre Dame#19BYU

Final ND 24, BYU 28

ModelND −11.6MarketND −10.5

BYU playoff odds
L 29%now 35%W 55%

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET

#25Mississippi State#10LSU

Final MSST 0, LSU 31

ModelLSU −11.2MarketLSU −17.5

LSU playoff odds
L 9.2%now 27%W 33%

Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET

Kentucky#13Oklahoma

Final UK 21, OU 13

ModelOU −10.6MarketOU −6.5

Oklahoma playoff odds
L 9.3%now 27%W 33%

The 10 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Sat, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 15 games

Final
#4Ohio State@#8Indiana
63%
37%
19
15
✓
OSU −5.6
OSU −3.0open OSU −1.5
4.1 → OSU
IU playoff odds
L 49%now 61%W 83%
Final
#21Florida@#5TexasUpset
15%
85%
27
24
✗
TEX −17.4
TEX −13.5open TEX −9.5
7.9 → TEX
TEX playoff odds
L 71%now 89%W 93%
Final
#25Mississippi State@#10LSU
25%
75%
0
31
✓
LSU −11.2
LSU −17.5open LSU −12.5
1.3 → MSST
LSU playoff odds
L 9.2%now 27%W 33%
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
72%
28%
24
21
✓
NU −9.7
NU −7.0open NU −8.5
1.2 → NU
NU playoff odds
L 0.4%now 3.6%W 4.9%
Final
Virginia@SMU
28%
72%
13
23
✓
SMU −9.8
SMU −10.0open SMU −7.5
2.3 → SMU
SMU playoff odds
L 1.9%now 6.0%W 7.6%
Final
Pittsburgh@Boston CollegeUpset
81%
19%
21
27
✗
PITT −14.2
PITT −6.5open PITT −7.0
7.2 → PITT
PITT playoff odds
L 0.4%now 2.0%W 2.4%
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
30%
70%
24
35
✓
KSU −8.6
KSU −3.0open KSU −7.5
1.1 → KSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Georgia State@James Madison
18%
82%
22
49
✓
JMU −15.1
JMU −8.5open JMU −12.5
2.6 → JMU
JMU playoff odds
L 4.3%now 17%W 20%
Final
Florida Atlantic@Army
25%
75%
24
56
✓
ARMY −11.3
ARMY −2.5open ARMY −3.0
8.3 → ARMY
Little playoff impact
Final
Cincinnati@West Virginia
48%
52%
42
45
✓
WVU −0.7
WVU −1.5
0.8 → CIN
Little playoff impact
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
29%
72%
32
31
✗
BGSU −9.4
BGSU −6.0open BGSU −8.5
0.9 → BGSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Rutgers@Maryland
30%
70%
37
30
✗
MD −8.6
MD −5.5open MD −4.5
4.1 → MD
Little playoff impact
Final
Charlotte@TempleUpset
8.8%
91%
38
31
✗
TEM −22.3
TEM −17.5open TEM −23.5
1.2 → CLT
Little playoff impact
Final
UMass@Buffalo
48%
52%
18
25
✓
BUF −0.6
BUF −6.5open BUF −3.5
2.9 → MASS
Little playoff impact
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
75%
25%
21
14
✓
WMU −11.0
WMU −7.5open WMU −7.0
4.0 → WMU
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Auburn@#1GeorgiaUpset
5.7%
94%
27
24
✗
UGA −26.1
UGA −19.5open UGA −16.5
9.6 → UGA
UGA playoff odds
L 89%now 97%W 98%
Final
#2Alabama@#15Tennessee
74%
26%
10
26
✗
ALA −10.8
ALA −7.5open ALA −1.5
9.3 → ALA
TENN playoff odds
L 15%now 22%W 43%
Final
#14Missouri@#11Ole Miss
37%
63%
3
31
✓
MISS −5.3
MISS −4.0open MISS −6.0
0.7 → MIZ
MIZ playoff odds
L 13%now 25%W 43%
Final
Arizona State@#16Texas Tech
9.5%
90%
25
53
✓
TTU −21.6
TTU −16.5open TTU −12.5
9.1 → TTU
TTU playoff odds
L 15%now 42%W 46%
Final
Penn State@#24Michigan
35%
65%
18
21
✓
MICH −6.2
MICH −6.0open MICH −6.5
0.3 → PSU
MICH playoff odds
L 0.5%now 2.9%W 4.3%
Final
North Carolina@Duke
35%
65%
24
20
✗
DUKE −6.2
DUKE −3.0open DUKE −4.5
1.7 → DUKE
Little playoff impact
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia Tech
31%
69%
24
34
✓
VT −8.1
VT −9.5open VT −10.0
1.9 → GT
Little playoff impact
Final
UNLV@Air Force
46%
54%
31
41
✓
AF −1.7
AF −1.5open UNLV −3.0
4.7 → AF
Little playoff impact
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
63%
37%
34
14
✓
TOL −5.5
TOL −7.0open TOL −6.5
1.0 → EMU
Little playoff impact
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
24%
76%
14
34
✓
M-OH −11.8
M-OH −9.5
2.3 → M-OH
Little playoff impact
Final
Northern Illinois@Wyoming
34%
66%
23
41
✓
WYO −6.8
WYO −7.5
0.7 → NIU
Little playoff impact
Final
Tulsa@Rice
55%
45%
38
17
✓
TLSA −2.1
TLSA −4.5open TLSA −3.0
0.9 → RICE
Little playoff impact
Final
Troy@Louisiana
34%
66%
6
33
✓
UL −6.6
UL −3.0open UL −3.5
3.1 → UL
Little playoff impact
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
20%
80%
30
48
✓
ORST −13.6
ORST −18.5open ORST −17.5
3.9 → WSU
ORST playoff odds
L 1.2%now 5.3%W 6.5%

Prime time 14 games

Final
Florida State@#6Miami (FL)
7.5%
92%
35
43
✓
MIA −23.7
MIA −19.5open MIA −16.5
7.2 → MIA
MIA playoff odds
L 75%now 90%W 91%
Final
TCU@Baylor
28%
72%
17
6
✗
BAY −9.8
BAY −4.5open BAY −6.5
3.3 → BAY
BAY playoff odds
L 2.0%now 6.9%W 8.8%
Final
Arkansas@Vanderbilt
32%
68%
31
21
✗
VAN −7.6
VAN −6.0open VAN −6.5
1.0 → VAN
Little playoff impact
Final
Kent State@USF
6.1%
94%
2
29
✓
USF −25.5
USF −21.0open USF −18.5
7.0 → USF
Little playoff impact
Final
Nevada@North Dakota State
25%
75%
17
31
✓
NDSU −11.0
NDSU −14.5
3.4 → NEV
Little playoff impact
Final
Arkansas State@Southern Miss
47%
53%
23
13
✗
USM −1.2
ARST −6.0open ARST −7.0
8.2 → USM
Little playoff impact
Final
#3Notre Dame@#19BYUUpset
76%
24%
24
28
✗
ND −11.6
ND −10.5open ND −10.0
1.6 → ND
BYU playoff odds
L 29%now 35%W 55%
Final
Kentucky@#13OklahomaUpset
26%
74%
21
13
✗
OU −10.6
OU −6.5
4.1 → OU
OU playoff odds
L 9.3%now 27%W 33%
Final
Wisconsin@#18UCLA
26%
74%
7
17
✓
UCLA −10.9
UCLA −1.5open UCLA −3.0
7.9 → UCLA
UCLA playoff odds
L 21%now 45%W 54%
Final
Oklahoma State@#22Houston
13%
87%
32
35
✓
HOU −18.4
HOU −4.0open HOU −3.5
15.0 → HOU
HOU playoff odds
L 1.9%now 14%W 15%
Final
Louisville@Syracuse
73%
27%
34
26
✓
LOU −10.2
LOU −14.5open LOU −10.5
0.3 → SYR
LOU playoff odds
L 0.3%now 2.5%W 3.4%
Final
Navy@UTSA
23%
77%
34
38
✓
UTSA −12.0
UTSA −6.5open UTSA −7.0
5.0 → UTSA
UTSA playoff odds
L 4.5%now 15%W 18%
Final
Louisiana Tech@Louisiana-Monroe
82%
18%
24
0
✓
LT −15.3
LT −15.5open LT −14.5
0.8 → LT
Little playoff impact
Final
San Jose State@UTEP
69%
31%
24
11
✓
SJSU −8.2
SJSU −7.0open SJSU −10.0
1.8 → UTEP
Little playoff impact

Late night 6 games

Final
Ohio@Sacramento State
75%
25%
48
7
✓
OHIO −11.2
OHIO −15.5open OHIO −13.5
2.3 → SAC
Little playoff impact
Final
#9Utah@Colorado
91%
8.8%
27
24
✓
UTAH −22.3
UTAH −14.5open UTAH −16.5
5.8 → UTAH
UTAH playoff odds
L 27%now 56%W 59%
Final
Wake Forest@California
70%
30%
41
7
✓
WAKE −8.6
WAKE −10.5open WAKE −8.5
0.1 → WAKE
WAKE playoff odds
L 2.6%now 9.6%W 13%
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
84%
16%
21
10
✓
UNM −16.1
UNM −14.5open UNM −15.5
0.6 → UNM
UNM playoff odds
L 1.1%now 5.1%W 6.0%
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
63%
37%
23
26
✗
FRES −5.6
FRES −7.5open FRES −8.5
2.9 → SDSU
FRES playoff odds
L 0.5%now 2.5%W 3.6%
Final
#20Nebraska@#7Oregon
26%
74%
14
17
✓
ORE −10.7
ORE −7.0open ORE −21.5
10.8 → NEB
ORE playoff odds
L 12%now 34%W 41%

Played before this page was saved

DayFinalModel (entering the week)Called it Model missMarket miss
Tue, Oct 13Delaware 30, Middle Tennessee 33 Delaware −1.8 ✗4.84.5
Tue, Oct 13FIU 24, Jacksonville State 27 Jacksonville State −1.6 ✓1.40.0
Wed, Oct 14Kennesaw State 21, Missouri State 24 Missouri State −2.4 ✓0.65.5
Wed, Oct 14Western Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3 Western Kentucky −2.0 ✓11.011.5
Thu, Oct 15East Carolina 17, UAB 30 East Carolina −4.8 ✗17.818.5
Thu, Oct 15Georgia Southern 23, Old Dominion 15 Georgia Southern −2.7 ✓5.35.0
Thu, Oct 15Colorado State 27, Texas State 66 Texas State −13.4 ✓25.623.5
Fri, Oct 16Memphis 17, Tulane 31 Memphis −2.4 ✗16.420.5
Fri, Oct 16Washington 38, Purdue 26 Washington −0.1 ✓11.915.0
Fri, Oct 16Appalachian State 35, Coastal Carolina 32 Appalachian State −0.9 ✓2.11.5

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at Clemson Clemson −47.3 >99%
Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET The Citadel at #17 Texas A&M Texas A&M −56.2 >99%
Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET Elon at Stanford Stanford −29.0 96%