The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 63 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

25 upsets against 17.6 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana-Monroe over Arkansas State12% chance · won 19-17
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Michigan16% chance · won 15-6
  • Runner-upWyoming over UNLV18% chance · won 41-35

Fallout

1.6 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

Oregon +34Boise State +17UCLA +16Ole Miss -27Ohio State -24LSU -24

Upsets

Most riding on it

Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

#20BYU#10Utah

Final BYU 20, UTAH 28

ModelUTAH −9.2MarketUTAH −4.0

BYU playoff odds
L 14%now 25%W 51%

Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET

#1Georgia#8Ole Miss

Final UGA 42, MISS 7

ModelUGA −1.8MarketUGA −3.5

Ole Miss playoff odds
L 50%now 66%W 86%

Sat, Nov 7 · 6:15 PM ET

Kentucky#12Tennessee

Final UK 6, TENN 34

ModelTENN −10.1MarketTENN −6.0

Kentucky playoff odds
L 26%now 36%W 61%

Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET

#11Oregon#3Ohio State

Final ORE 41, OSU 28

ModelOSU −13.0MarketOSU −7.5

Ohio State playoff odds
L 55%now 82%W 89%

Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET

#4Alabama#7LSU

Final ALA 31, LSU 13

ModelLSU −0.4MarketLSU −6.0

LSU playoff odds
L 44%now 61%W 78%

Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

#16UCLAMinnesota

Final UCLA 34, MINN 20

ModelUCLA −8.1MarketUCLA −3.5

UCLA playoff odds
L 29%now 52%W 62%

Sat, Nov 7 · 6:00 PM ET

Boise StateColorado State

Final BOIS 64, CSU 38

ModelBOIS −18.9MarketBOIS −16.5

Boise State playoff odds
L 44%now 72%W 76%

Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET

#6Miami (FL)#2Notre Dame

Final MIA 24, ND 31

ModelND −6.4MarketND −7.0

Notre Dame playoff odds
L 69%now 85%W 94%

Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

#5Texas#15Missouri

Final TEX 34, MIZ 20

ModelTEX −7.0MarketTEX −2.5

Texas playoff odds
L 69%now 85%W 93%

Sat, Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ET

West Virginia#19Texas Tech

Final WVU 48, TTU 53

ModelTTU −21.2MarketTTU −16.5

Texas Tech playoff odds
L 7.0%now 28%W 31%

The 10 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Sat, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 14 games

Final
#5Texas@#15Missouri
66%
34%
34
20
✓
TEX −7.0
TEX −2.5open TEX −3.5
3.5 → TEX
TEX playoff odds
L 69%now 85%W 93%
Final
#20BYU@#10Utah
29%
71%
20
28
✓
UTAH −9.2
UTAH −4.0open UTAH −3.0
6.3 → UTAH
BYU playoff odds
L 14%now 25%W 51%
Final
#16UCLA@Minnesota
69%
31%
34
20
✓
UCLA −8.1
UCLA −3.5open UCLA −6.5
1.6 → UCLA
UCLA playoff odds
L 29%now 52%W 62%
Final
Iowa State@Baylor
20%
80%
31
42
✓
BAY −13.7
BAY −10.0open BAY −9.5
4.2 → BAY
BAY playoff odds
L 0.1%now 2.0%W 2.5%
Final
Clemson@Syracuse
62%
38%
18
13
✓
CLEM −4.9
CLEM −1.5
3.4 → CLEM
Little playoff impact
Final
Florida State@Boston College
72%
28%
31
24
✓
FSU −9.4
FSU −5.5open FSU −6.5
2.9 → FSU
Little playoff impact
Final
North Carolina@UConn
64%
36%
38
21
✓
UNC −6.0
UNC −7.5open UNC −8.5
2.5 → CONN
Little playoff impact
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
37%
63%
60
10
✗
TULN −5.3
TLSA −3.0
8.3 → TULN
Little playoff impact
Final
Duke@NC State
55%
45%
41
3
✓
DUKE −2.0
DUKE −4.5open DUKE −5.5
3.5 → NCSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Maryland@Purdue
33%
67%
34
29
✗
PUR −7.4
PUR −5.5open PUR −7.0
0.4 → PUR
Little playoff impact
Final
Arkansas@Auburn
20%
80%
23
26
✓
AUB −13.8
AUB −10.5open AUB −12.5
1.3 → AUB
Little playoff impact
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas State
38%
62%
66
28
✗
KSU −4.9
OKST −7.0open OKST −6.5
11.4 → KSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Old Dominion@Coastal Carolina
28%
72%
21
8
✗
CCU −9.7
CCU −6.5open CCU −7.0
2.7 → CCU
Little playoff impact
Final
Georgia State@Appalachian State
38%
62%
39
23
✗
APP −4.9
APP −6.5open APP −3.5
1.4 → APP
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 21 games

Final
#14Texas A&M@#17South Carolina
42%
58%
9
17
✓
SC −3.2
SC −6.5
3.3 → TA&M
SC playoff odds
L 1.4%now 7.3%W 12%
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas StateUpset
13%
87%
19
17
✗
ARST −18.6
ARST −14.5
4.1 → ARST
Little playoff impact
Final
Delaware@Kennesaw State
51%
49%
40
42
✗
DEL −0.5
DEL −1.5open DEL −3.0
2.5 → KENN
Little playoff impact
Final
#11Oregon@#3Ohio StateUpset
21%
78%
41
28
✗
OSU −13.0
OSU −7.5open OSU −6.0
7.0 → OSU
OSU playoff odds
L 55%now 82%W 89%
Final
#4Alabama@#7LSU
49%
51%
31
13
✗
LSU −0.4
LSU −6.0open LSU −3.5
3.1 → ALA
LSU playoff odds
L 44%now 61%W 78%
Final
Cincinnati@Houston
16%
84%
24
31
✓
HOU −16.6
HOU −10.5
6.2 → HOU
HOU playoff odds
L 0.6%now 8.8%W 10%
Final
Penn State@Washington
48%
52%
28
25
✗
WASH −1.0
WASH −2.5
1.5 → PSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Temple@Navy
27%
73%
35
42
✓
NAVY −10.3
NAVY −7.0open NAVY −7.5
2.8 → NAVY
Little playoff impact
Final
Marshall@Georgia Southern
31%
69%
13
49
✓
GASO −8.2
GASO −7.0open GASO −8.5
0.3 → MRSH
Little playoff impact
Final
Charlotte@UAB
17%
83%
12
23
✓
UAB −15.6
UAB −8.5open UAB −10.0
5.7 → UAB
Little playoff impact
Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
56%
44%
42
51
✗
WKU −2.3
WKU −2.5open MTSU −1.5
3.8 → WKU
Little playoff impact
Final
UCF@Kansas
37%
63%
33
32
✗
KU −5.4
KU −6.0open KU −2.5
2.9 → KU
Little playoff impact
Final
Rice@North Texas
11%
89%
23
52
✓
UNT −20.6
UNT −15.5open UNT −16.5
4.1 → UNT
UNT playoff odds
L 0.2%now 3.3%W 3.6%
Final
Louisiana Tech@Troy
63%
37%
41
17
✓
LT −5.4
LT −7.0open LT −6.5
1.1 → TROY
Little playoff impact
Final
Missouri State@FIU
34%
66%
20
23
✓
FIU −7.0
FIU −4.5
2.5 → FIU
Little playoff impact
Final
Northern Illinois@San Jose State
16%
84%
19
30
✓
SJSU −16.4
SJSU −12.5open SJSU −11.5
4.9 → SJSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Vanderbilt@Mississippi StateUpset
25%
75%
25
23
✗
MSST −11.2
MSST −2.5open MSST −3.0
8.2 → MSST
Little playoff impact
Final
Rutgers@Wisconsin
15%
85%
10
31
✓
WIS −17.1
WIS −19.5open WIS −16.5
0.6 → WIS
WIS playoff odds
L <0.1%now 1.7%W 2.0%
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana
28%
72%
26
28
✓
UL −9.7
UL −7.0open UL −5.5
4.2 → UL
Little playoff impact
Final
Boise State@Colorado State
87%
13%
64
38
✓
BOIS −18.9
BOIS −16.5open BOIS −19.5
0.7 → CSU
BOIS playoff odds
L 44%now 72%W 76%
Final
Kentucky@#12Tennessee
27%
73%
6
34
✓
TENN −10.1
TENN −6.0
4.1 → TENN
UK playoff odds
L 26%now 36%W 61%

Prime time 13 games

Final
Sam Houston@Jacksonville State
16%
84%
14
47
✓
JXST −16.4
JXST −16.5open JXST −14.0
2.4 → JXST
Little playoff impact
Final
#1Georgia@#8Ole Miss
54%
46%
42
7
✓
UGA −1.8
UGA −3.5open UGA −4.5
2.7 → MISS
MISS playoff odds
L 50%now 66%W 86%
Final
#6Miami (FL)@#2Notre Dame
35%
65%
24
31
✓
ND −6.4
ND −7.0open ND −6.5
0.0 → MIA
ND playoff odds
L 69%now 85%W 94%
Final
#22Iowa@#24Northwestern
42%
58%
24
10
✗
NU −3.2
IOWA −3.0open NU −2.5
0.7 → NU
IOWA playoff odds
L 1.9%now 8.2%W 17%
Final
#25Louisville@Georgia Tech
82%
18%
44
17
✓
LOU −15.1
LOU −14.5open LOU −13.5
1.6 → LOU
LOU playoff odds
L 0.3%now 3.9%W 4.7%
Final
Michigan State@MichiganUpset
17%
84%
15
6
✗
MICH −16.0
MICH −14.0open MICH −16.5
0.5 → MSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Air Force@Army
27%
73%
24
21
✗
ARMY −9.9
ARMY −4.0open ARMY −6.0
3.9 → ARMY
Little playoff impact
Final
Colorado@Arizona State
29%
71%
10
20
✓
ASU −9.0
ASU −3.0open ASU −4.0
5.0 → ASU
Little playoff impact
Final
#23Oklahoma@#18Florida
35%
65%
23
7
✗
FLA −6.2
FLA −4.5open FLA −4.0
2.2 → FLA
FLA playoff odds
L 4.3%now 16%W 22%
Final
Liberty@New Mexico State
86%
14%
30
14
✓
LIB −17.5
LIB −15.5open LIB −12.5
5.0 → LIB
LIB playoff odds
L 0.1%now 2.0%W 2.3%
Final
West Virginia@#19Texas Tech
9.9%
90%
48
53
✓
TTU −21.2
TTU −16.5open TTU −17.5
3.7 → TTU
TTU playoff odds
L 7.0%now 28%W 31%
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
62%
38%
10
17
✗
FRES −5.1
FRES −1.5open FRES −2.5
2.6 → FRES
Little playoff impact
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
75%
25%
17
14
✓
HAW −11.2
HAW −7.5open HAW −11.5
0.3 → UTEP
Little playoff impact

Late night 2 games

Final
Texas State@Oregon State
39%
61%
42
21
✗
ORST −4.5
ORST −5.5open ORST −8.5
4.0 → TXST
ORST playoff odds
L 0.2%now 1.7%W 2.6%
Final
Wyoming@UNLVUpset
20%
80%
41
35
✗
UNLV −13.9
UNLV −3.5open UNLV −8.5
5.4 → UNLV
Little playoff impact

Played before this page was saved

DayFinalModel (entering the week)Called it Model missMarket miss
Tue, Nov 3Ohio 28, Akron 20 Ohio −13.0 ✓5.04.5
Tue, Nov 3Buffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31 Miami (OH) −10.9 ✗13.99.5
Wed, Nov 4Toledo 20, Sacramento State 17 Toledo −17.1 ✓14.122.5
Wed, Nov 4Ball State 30, UMass 31 UMass −7.4 ✓6.41.5
Wed, Nov 4Central Michigan 35, Eastern Michigan 7 Eastern Michigan −0.4 ✗28.425.5
Thu, Nov 5UTSA 29, Florida Atlantic 60 UTSA −10.6 ✗41.638.0
Thu, Nov 5James Madison 54, Southern Miss 23 James Madison −13.1 ✓17.917.5
Fri, Nov 6Virginia Tech 28, SMU 51 SMU −9.4 ✓13.617.0
Fri, Nov 6USF 17, East Carolina 20 USF −6.4 ✗9.41.5
Fri, Nov 6Nebraska 13, Illinois 24 Nebraska −3.8 ✗14.815.5
Fri, Nov 6New Mexico 31, Nevada 3 New Mexico −11.9 ✓16.117.5
Fri, Nov 6TCU 28, Arizona 29 Arizona −11.3 ✓10.35.0

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET Merrimack at #21 Wake Forest Wake Forest −51.9 >99%